⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Prop Bets & Corbin Carroll HR Picks
Memorial Day Weekend begins with a loaded MLB slate, and I’m making my best home run predictions tonight, drawing from a mix of proven sluggers and value plays against struggling pitching staffs.
Atlanta’s offense has been hot all season, so I’m excited to back Matt Olson as my top MLB home run pick against a division rival. I also like Byron Buxton’s chances of going deep for the second time since returning from injury, while also targeting home run value by fading the Astros’ and Rockies’ pitching staffs.
⚾ Best home run predictions tonight: MLB picks & odds May 23
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson to hit a home run (+300 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.75u | Atlanta leads the NL in ISO and home runs |
| Michael Busch to hit a home run (+544 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.36u | Busch has been one of MLB's top hitters in May |
| Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+375 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.94u | Prior to his injury, Buxton led the league in home runs over a three-week stretch |
| Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+390 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.98u | Carroll has taken Michael Lorenzen deep twice in eight at-bats in his career |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.03 units
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💣 Best home run prediction tonight
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+300)
Matt Olson is the best power hitter of a Braves offense that has scored 199 runs over their last 26 games, while also totaling eight-plus runs in four of the previous five.
Olson has homered twice in a decent 18-at-bat sample size off of Nationals righty Jake Irvin, who has allowed seven dingers in 46 ⅔ innings this year.
Despite Olson slashing .179/.220/.250 over the last 15 days, he still entered this series on pace for 46 home runs and 135 RBI, and his 17 home runs against the Nationals are his second-most against an NL opponent.
📡 SBR Edge: In line for hardware?
Despite being mired in a slump for much of May, Matt Olson still remains a top-three NL MVP candidate based on odds from DraftKings (Olson is currently +1500).
🔥 More home run picks tonight
Michael Busch to hit a home run (+544)
Kai-Wei Teng has recorded more than nine outs just once this season as the team is in the process of stretching him out to be a starter. That means Cubs bats should have plenty of opportunities to tee off on the Astros bullpen.
Houston’s relievers entered the series with MLB’s worst HR/9 rate (1.53), ERA (5.72), and FIP (5.35).
I’ve landed on Michael Busch as my best value play since all three of Teng’s home runs have come against left-handed batters. He has also heated up with the weather getting warmer, with massive increases in hard-hit rate in May leading to a 185 wRC+ and .452 xwOBA in his first 62 at-bats of the month.
Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+375)
Byron Buxton is one of 10 players with a .800 OPS or better in each of the last three seasons.
Since the start of 2021 (min. 400 games), he has the sixth-highest WAR per 162 games among position players, and his slugging percentage is the fourth-highest since 2024 (min. 800 PA). Buxton is also one of five players to slug over .525 against fastballs and breaking pitches since the start of 2025, and is fifth overall this season in slugging against Buxton breaking pitches (min. 100 PA).
That bodes well for Buxton’s chances of success against Brayan Bello, who has allowed a .903 slugging percentage against his cutter and .643 slugging off his curveball.
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+390)
Corbin Carroll entered the series against the Rockies amid a four-game extra-base hit streak.
Rockies righty Michael Lorenzen has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last four starts, and has a near identical home run allowed rate at Coors Field (five home runs in 23 ⅓ innings) as he does on the road (four home runs in 25 ⅓ innings).
Both of Carroll’s hits in an eight-at-bat sample size against Lorenzen have been home runs, and the righty’s 47.5% hard-hit rate allowed trumps his previous career-worst of 42.7%. His last two seasons were also the first two of his career allowing a pull air percentage of at least 20%, which plays well for Carroll batting at the hitter-friendly Chase Field.
Corbin Carroll home run trends
Here’s a look at how Carroll’s home run prop has performed across different splits:
| Split 📊 | W-L 📈 |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1-4 |
| Last 5 at Chase Field | 0-5 |
| Last 5 vs. Rockies | 1-4 |
| Career vs. Lorenzen | 2-2 |
🎟️ Most-bet MLB player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | Blue Jays | Under 15.5 outs | -154 |
| Lucas Giolito | Padres | Under 4.5 strikeouts | -120 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rangers | Under 18.5 outs | -120 |
| James Wood | Nationals | 1+ home runs | +400 |
| Danny Jansen | Rangers | Over 0.5 hits | -105 |
🚀 Best home run parlay picks tonight
With this four-leg home run parlay, I've struck a balance between red-hot hitters amid huge spikes in their power numbers and ability to hit for extra bases (Busch and Carroll) with sluggers that remain atop MLB's home run leaderboard despite not hitting many dingers over the last couple of weeks.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay tonight
- Matt Olson to hit a home run (+300)
- Michael Busch to hit a home run (+520)
- Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+360)
- Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+390)
Best odds: +55799 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 55.8u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 99-146-1 | +28.66 units ✅ | +18.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 66-125 | +18.87 units ✅ | +18.2% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks tonight
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
It was tempting to either put more than 0.25 units on my Byron Buxton play, or to add more Twins sluggers to my home run portfolio, given that Brayan Bello already has pitched to a 2.0 HR/9 rate this season. Nevertheless, I stayed true with my usual 0.25-unit plays, with each holding enough value that I'd only need one to cash to turn a profit for the day.
🤑 MLB betting splits tonight
Betting insights via DraftKings.
A's vs. Padres
| Bet type 📊 | A's 🟢🟡 | Padres 🟤🟡 |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -121 | 48% | +100 | 52% |
| Run line | -1.5 (+134) | 23% | +1.5 (-162) | 77% |
| Total | Over 8 | 53% | Under 8 | 47% |
Rangers vs. Angels
| Bet type 📊 | Rangers 🔵🔴 | Angels 🔴 |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -144 | 78% | +119 | 22% |
| Run line | -1.5 (+119) | 56% | +1.5 (-144) | 44% |
| Total | Over 7.5 | 62% | Under 7.5 | 38% |
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
| Bet type 📊 | Rockies 🏔️ | Diamondbacks 🐍 |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +159 | 13% | -194 | 87% |
| Run line | +1.5 (-131) | 24% | -1.5 (+108) | 76% |
| Total | Over 9.5 | 53% | Under 9.5 | 47% |
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