⚾ Best Home Run Predictions: Today's MLB HR Picks & Odds

We already have one game going on a busy Sunday, but my home run predictions today will keep you active all day. There are some teams struggling to keep their division rivals off the scoreboard lately, and that's where I'm going to put my focus today.  

The Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks have put up some crooked numbers in their head-to-head rivalries with the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies, which is why I’m backing Michael Harris II and Ketel Marte with two of my MLB home run picks. I also add a play on Brandon Lowe as one of MLB’s top slugging second basemen, and round out my four-pack of wagers on a Reds slugger in an NL Central game with a high O/U.

⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 24

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 0.75 units | Max profit: 3.96 units

💣 Best home run prediction today

Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+500)

Brandon Lowe has gotten the best of many of his 12 career at-bats against Dylan Cease, with three of his five hits going for extra bases. That helps comprise a 1.583 OPS, which is the highest of any batter against today’s opposing pitcher on the entire 16-game slate (min. 10 at-bats).

Lowe entered this series tied for the sixth-most extra-base hits of any player (25). He also has the second-highest slugging percentage of all second basemen since 2021 (trailing only Marte), and is on pace for the second-highest xSLG and hard-hit rate, and best wOBA of his nine-year career.

🔥 More home run picks today

JJ Bleday to hit a home run (+500)

Editor's note: This game is PPD

JJ Bleday has thoroughly enjoyed his first season with the Reds, as he has improved his .437 and .404 slugging percentages of the last two seasons to .576 this year.

There was a stretch from April 26 to early May where Bleday ranked second in OPS (min. 50 PA), ahead of Byron Buxton, Aaron Judge, and Kyle Schwarber. He was also second in xwOBA (.483), a metric that measures a hitter’s quality of contact.

Bleday's power numbers are up largely because of an increase in his bat speed. In 2025, his average bat speed was 71.7 mph, with a 14.8% fast swing percentage and 24.9% pull air percentage. This year, his bat speed averaged 74.8 mph with a 50% fast swing percentage and 33.3% pull air percentage.

Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+690)

Prior to these two division rivals starting this current series, Washington was 2-9 in its last 11 games against the Braves, while allowing 6.9 runs per game. And the Nationals were set to face a Braves offense that had scored eight-plus runs in three straight, and four of the previous five.

A big catalyst for the Braves' offense has been Michael Harris II, who turned in his eighth career two-home run game earlier this week and had three long balls in a three-game stretch. Harris II has a great chance to go deep off of Foster Griffin, who has allowed weak contact 4.3% of the time, and a .517 slugging percentage or worse off of his two primary pitches (cutter and four-seam fastball). 

Ketel Marte to hit a home run (+390)

Marte is one of three current Diamondbacks to have homered in their careers off of Rockies southpaw Jose Quintana. Colorado also entered the weekend having lost 19 of 22 road games to Arizona, while pitching to a 7.00 ERA over that span.

Marte is 5-for-14 in his career against Quintana, and has a tasty matchup against a southpaw that has allowed at least one home run in five of his previous seven starts. 

Marte has hit just one of his seven home runs from the right side of the plate this season, but has a higher batting average against southpaws, and still ranks in the 84th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate and xSLG.

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

With this four-leg home run parlay, I've identified several sluggers on teams that have lit up their opponents' pitching staffs over a large head-to-head sample size. In Lowe's case, I found confidence in his head-to-head success against today's opposing starting pitcher, while everyone's home run odds still add great value to this wager.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Three of the four sluggers I'm backing to homer today are not the biggest in stature, but all have shown an ability to hit the ball out of the yard, even though most come from middle-infield positions that aren't accustomed to providing much of the lineup's pop. As always, I'm keeping all of these wagers to 0.25-unit plays, while keeping the model of success that is largely responsible for the near 19 units of profits from player props.