Dodgers vs. Padres Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 27)
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto and RHP Randy Vasquez square off today in the second game of a three-game set as we break down the Dodgers vs. Padres win probability.
The Dodgers have a 64% win probability on prediction market apps, but I like the Padres to win their fifth straight game. First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 8:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network, MLB.TV).
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🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Padres? Live MLB win probability
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The Dodgers have a projected 64% win probability, and over $550,000 has already been traded in this market. L.A. originally opened at a 60% win probability on Wednesday night, but Yes contracts on the Dodgers have become more expensive as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on L.A. are available at 66¢, with over $550,000 in liquidity at that price.
The Dodgers fell to 52-30 after losing 7-1 in the series opener on Friday night. Starter Roki Sasaki allowed three earned runs on three hits and five walks with two K's in four innings, and relief pitcher Jonathan Hernandez gave up four earned runs in the eighth. Shortstop Mookie Betts scored the Dodgers' lone run with a home run in the second.
Padres starter Walker Buehler recorded the win against his former team, allowing just one earned run on three hits and three walks with five K's in 5 1/3 innings. First baseman Ty France hit a go-ahead three-run shot in the second inning, his second home run in as many games. San Diego improved to 43-37 with the win and is eight games back of the NL West-leading Dodgers.
My prediction: Padres win (36¢). The Padres are being disrespected by the market after winning four straight games. Yes, Yamamoto is a better pitcher than Vasquez, but the Padres righty has allowed just two earned runs in two of his last four starts, so he's still capable of putting San Diego in position to win again at home.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Dodgers vs. Padres?
| Hitter | Home run probability | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 31% | 31¢ |
| Freddie Freeman | 18% | 18¢ |
| Mookie Betts | 15% | 15¢ |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 15% | 15¢ |
| Manny Machado | 14% | 14¢ |
| Jackson Merrill | 14% | 14¢ |
| Kyle Tucker | 14% | 14¢ |
As always, Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani has the highest probability (31%) of hitting a home run today - up from 25% yesterday. First baseman Freddie Freeman - another popular contract, as he has homered in three of his last 11 games - has the second-highest probability at 18% (up from 15% yesterday).
Betts and Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. are next in line at 15%, while third baseman Manny Machado, outfielder Jackson Merrill, and Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker round out the options at 14%. More than $45,000 in volume has already cleared in this market.
My prediction: Manny Machado to hit a home run (14¢). While Machado is batting just .186, his power is still there, with a team-high 14 home runs on the season. Not only does he tend to play better against the Dodgers - he has 11 homers against L.A. in the last 41 head-to-head meetings - but he's also had success against Yamamoto, slugging .714 in his career against the Dodgers righty. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Dodgers vs. Padres?
Over $12,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 50% chance of a first-inning run. If you'd like to buy Yes contracts (i.e., the YRFI) at 50¢, you can instantly get just over $1,300 filled. However, at 51¢, you can get more than $36,000 filled immediately.
The Dodgers have had a first-inning run scored in 49% of their games, while the Padres have seen a run in the first inning in 34% of theirs. Yamamoto has not given up a first-inning run in either of his last two starts, while Vasquez has allowed one in each of his last three.
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (50¢). I don't like Yamamoto's chances of holding the Padres scoreless in the first inning after they put up five or more runs in each of their last three games. On the other side, Vasquez has gotten off to bad starts lately, so he's even more vulnerable in the first frame.
📊 Dodgers vs. Padres win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 64% | 60% | ↑ 4% |
| Padres | 36% | 40% | ↓ 4% |
📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Padres
- Date: Saturday, June 27
- First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
- TV: MLB Network
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Dodgers starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-5, 2.65 ERA)
- Padres starter: Randy Vasquez (6-5, 4.17 ERA)
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