🏇 2026 Kentucky Derby Predictions: Our Expert Picks, Best Bets, Long Shots & More
We're counting down the hours until the 2026 Kentucky Derby with post time set for Saturday at approximately 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC. Our betting experts have been hard at work this week breaking down the best Kentucky Derby predictions for the 152nd Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs - consider this your one-stop-shop for everything you need to know before betting on the Derby this weekend.
📊 Kentucky Derby odds & betting favorites
See the latest Kentucky Derby odds across the Kentucky Derby betting sites.
| Post position | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 5-1 |
| 2 | Albus | 50-1 |
| 3 | Intrepido | 55-1 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 34-1 |
| 5 | Commandment | 7-1 |
| 6 | Danon Bourbon | 14-1 |
| 7 | So Happy | 6-1 |
| 8 | The Puma | 8-1 |
| 9 | Wonder Dean | 20-1 |
| 10 | Incredibolt | 27-1 |
| 11 | Chief Wallabee | 9-1 |
| 12 | Potente | 23-1 |
| 13 | Emerging Market | 11-1 |
| 14 | Pavlovian | 52-1 |
| 15 | Six Speed | 40-1 |
| 16 | Further Ado | 7-1 |
| 17 | Golden Tempo | 36-1 |
| 18 | Great White | 29-1 |
| 19 | Ocelli | 50-1 |
| 20 | Robusta | 50-1 |
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🏆 Who will win the Kentucky Derby?
A favorite hasn't won the Run for the Roses since Justify in 2018, and Renegade's draw at the rail makes that streak even harder to break this year - the inside post hasn't produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986.
Our horse racing expert Brian Robin is picking Commandment (6-1) to win the Kentucky Derby, drawing confidence from a four-race win streak that includes a Florida Derby win over The Puma and Chief Wallabee in what Robin calls statistically the deepest prep field of 2026. He also points to Commandment's profile as a classic Derby winner: tactical speed, stalking running style, and trainer Brad Cox at the top of his game with deep local Churchill Downs roots.
Robin breaks down his full Kentucky Derby picks and predictions with his favorite picks to win, his exotic ticket strategy, and the contender he's fading on Saturday (and why). Looking for a contrarian play? We break down why Chief Wallabee will win the Kentucky Derby as an 8-1 contender further down the board.
🎯 Best Kentucky Derby long shots
The last six Kentucky Derby winners went off at an average price of roughly 30-1, which should be music to the ears of anyone who likes tailing long shots to net a big payday.
Robin's best long shot is Golden Tempo (30-1), a Curlin progeny who hasn't missed the board in four starts and fits the profile of deep-closing Louisiana Derby alumni who've hit the Derby superfecta in nine of the last 15 races. Robin is also high on Emerging Market (15-1) - the undefeated Louisiana Derby winner - and Incredibolt (20-1), whose 36.1-second final three furlongs in the Virginia Derby was the fastest closing kick of any horse in the field.
Robin dives into all of his best Kentucky Derby long shots and sleeper picks for Saturday's race at Churchill Downs, including why they're undervalued and how to maximize value with box wagers on long shots.
🤖 Kentucky Derby AI predictions
Last year, my Kentucky Derby AI prediction correctly picked Sovereignty (5-1) to beat heavily favorite Journalism, and anyone who tailed our robot friend made a pretty penny.
This year, I turned to Claude to project the full finishing order with six key criteria for the AI model to consider: speed figures, head-to-head form, pace projection, post position trends, trainer/jockey patterns, and value identification. Claude's pick to win is Commandment (6-1), citing his multiple triple-digit Brisnet ratings and his Florida Derby win over The Puma and Chief Wallabee. Claude also targeted The Puma (10-1) as a worthwhile long shot with another 30-1 sleeper in its sights.
I break it all down in our Kentucky Derby AI prediction & picks, including Claude's full projected finish order and deep-dive analysis on every horse in the field.
📝 Kentucky Derby draft & power rankings
We pitted our experts against each other this week with a four-round, 20-horse draft ahead of Saturday's race. Here's a look at which horses our experts picked for our internal competition, which rewards the winner with $50 for the best four-horse mix:
| Expert | Pick 1 ⬇️ | Pick 2 ⬆️ | Pick 3 ⬆️ | Pick 4 ⬇️ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Paul | Renegade | Robusta | Six Speed | Litmus Test |
| C Jackson Cowart | Commandment | Golden Tempo | Wonder Dean | Great White |
| Corey Scott | Further Ado | Danon Bourbon | Potente | Pavlovian |
| LJ Blut | Chief Wallabee | The Puma | Incredibolt | Intrepido |
| Dustin Saracini | Emerging Market | So Happy | Albus | Ocelli |
Our experts broke down their reasoning for each pick in our SBR Kentucky Derby Draft, which includes a Kentucky Derby power ranking of 1 through 20 based on the results of our four-round draft.
🪧 Kentucky Derby post position & betting trends
Renegade's draw at post 1 is the storyline of this year's race, as the rail hasn't produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986. Our horse racing expert LJ Blut broke down why that matters so much in his deep dive of the best Kentucky Derby betting trends: nine of the last 15 winners broke from posts 13-16, which suggests that avoiding inside traffic has outweighed the slight advantage of saving ground close to the rail.
Post 17 has never produced a Derby winner since the starting gate was introduced in 1930, while post 20 has been one of the best in the field - a welcome sight for any horse that assumes the outside gate with any scratches between now and post time. Blut analyzes the best and worst Kentucky Derby post positions, along with a look at which favorites face the toughest draws and who could emerge from a favorable spot.
⛅ Kentucky Derby weather & track conditions
Saturday's forecast is about as ideal as it gets for the Run for the Roses: 55 degrees at post time with a 20% chance of precipitation, 9 mph winds, and 50% humidity, with a fast and dry track expected. Our betting expert Sean Tomlinson says those conditions favor the top of the board - both Renegade and Commandment want a fast surface - but also keep deep closers like Golden Tempo in play, since a hot pace on a fast track can collapse and set up late-running plays.
Tomlinson went in-depth on the latest Kentucky Derby weather report & track conditions with analysis on how the weather should impact your bets for Saturday.
🏇 More Kentucky Derby picks & predictions
- Kentucky Derby picks and predictions
- Kentucky Derby long shots and sleeper picks
- Kentucky Derby odds & betting favorites
- Kentucky Derby AI prediction & picks
- SBR Kentucky Derby draft picks
- Kentucky Derby betting trends
- Kentucky Derby post position
- Why Chief Wallabee will win the Kentucky Derby
📺 How to watch the Kentucky Derby 2026
- When: Saturday, May 2
- Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
- Where: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Ky.)
- How to watch: NBC | Peacock | NBC Sports App
❓ Kentucky Derby info & FAQs
When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is Saturday with post time set for approximately 6:57 p.m. ET.
Where is the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
Who is the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite?
Renegade is the 4-1 morning-line favorite from post 1, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.
How do I watch the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
Saturday's race airs on NBC and Peacock, with post time around 6:57 p.m. ET.
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