🏇 Kentucky Derby Post Positions 2026: Did the Favorites Get a Good Draw Tonight?
The Kentucky Derby post position draw is one of the biggest moments leading up to Saturday's "Run for the Roses" as the starting position for the 20-horse field can influence and even determine the final outcome at Churchill Downs.
Below, I break down the latest Kentucky Derby post positions, as well as post position history for Derby winners and how to bet on the Derby using post position data.
🏇 Kentucky Derby odds & post positions 2026
Here's a look at this year's odds - our Kentucky Derby picks and predictions break down our top bets for the weekend, as do our Kentucky Derby expert picks.
| Horse | Post position | Odds | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renegade | 1 | 5-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Albus | 2 | 50-1 | Riley Mott |
| Intrepido | 3 | 55-1 | Jeff Mullins |
| Litmus Test | 4 | 34-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Commandment | 6 | 7-1 | Brad Cox |
| Danon Bourbon | 7 | 14-1 | Manabu Ikezoe |
| So Happy | 8 | 6-1 | Mark Glatt |
| Wonder Dean | 10 | 20-1 | Daisuke Takayanagi |
| Incredibolt | 11 | 27-1 | Riley Mott |
| Chief Wallabee | 12 | 9-1 | Bill Mott |
| Potente | 14 | 23-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Emerging Market | 15 | 11-1 | Chad Brown |
| Pavlovian | 16 | 52-1 | Doug O’Neill |
| Six Speed | 17 | 40-1 | Bhupat Seemar |
| Further Ado | 18 | 7-1 | Brad Cox |
| Golden Tempo | 19 | 36-1 | Cherie DeVaux |
| Great White | 21 | 29-1 | John Ennis |
| Ocelli | 22 | 50-1 | Whit Beckman |
| Robusta | 23 | 50-1 | Doug O'Neill |
Did the favorites get a good draw?
Let's break down the favorites and the post position they drew for Saturday:
- The favorite, Renegade (4-1), is in the first post position, which hasn't produced a winner since 1986 with Ferdinand. A horse breaking from the rail needs to be a fast starter and get to the front early. Historically, horses in this position have gotten caught in traffic around the first turn and have struggled to break free from that spot. He's a horse to watch in our Kentucky Derby picks and predictions.
- Commandment (6-1) is in a much better post position, sitting in the No. 6 spot. That post has struggled in this race, but that has more to do with the horses that have drawn it rather than the position itself. The sixth post has produced only two winners, and while some analysts label it a poor draw, it sits in the middle of the gate, and I do not view it as a disadvantage. He's highlighted in our Kentucky Derby AI predictions.
- Further Ado (6-1) is in a tough post position, starting all the way outside in post 17. That remains the only post that has never won the Kentucky Derby. Horses often need to use extra energy early to avoid getting caught wide from outside positions, which can be taxing. He still has the ability to win, but the draw slightly hurts his chances in my opinion.
- Chief Wallabee (8-1) is in another low-producing post position. The No. 12 post has yielded only a 3.7% win rate, but I still like his chances in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He has the early speed to get into a good position quickly and overcome the draw. I am very high on Chief Wallabee heading into Saturday’s race.
Who should you be keeping your eye one when it comes to our Kentucky Derby long shots, though? We have you covered with that and our Kentucky Derby expert picks.
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🪧 Kentucky Derby post positions: Best, worst, and why they matter
Post positions are a major factor in the Kentucky Derby because they can dramatically influence a horse's strategy and ability to navigate the crowded field. The race's quarter-mile run to the first turn creates a battle that is easier from certain starting positions, and a horse's starting gate can be a major advantage or disadvantage.
How post position changes the race
The post position is the stall or gate from which the horse will start the race, and it can affect a horse's chances of winning in several ways. While post position matters in horse racing at any track, nowhere is it more critical than in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, which boasts the largest field of any major U.S. horse race.
Horses starting from certain positions face different challenges. Those on the extreme inside (like post 1) can get "shuffled back" or pinned against the rail, while those on the far outside (like post 20) risk losing valuable ground by racing wide or having to expend too much energy early to gain a good position.
What is the best Kentucky Derby post position?
- Post 5 has produced the most Derby winners, with 10 victories since 1930.
- Post 8 has seen recent success, including Mage's win in 2023, and has 9 wins overall.
- Post 10 has one of the highest in-the-money percentages, with nearly 29% of horses finishing in the top three.
- Post 20 has a high win percentage (10.5%) for the number of times it has been used, even though it has only produced two winners. This suggests outsiders with tactical moves can succeed from this neutral spot.
What is the worst Kentucky Derby post position?
- Post 1 has not produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986. Horses from this post often struggle to avoid traffic and get a clean run.
- Post 17 is the only consistently used post position that has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
- Post 6 is considered a "statistical anomaly," with only two winners despite being surrounded by posts with many more victories.
🌞 Clear and dry conditions
Our Kentucky Derby weather report details the forecasted ideal conditions ahead on race day.
🏆 Kentucky Derby wins by post position
Here are the number of Kentucky Derby winners by post position since 1930, including Sovereignty's win from the No. 16 spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby:
| Post position | Number of wins | Win percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8.3% |
| 2 | 7 | 7.3% |
| 3 | 6 | 6.3% |
| 4 | 5 | 5.2% |
| 5 | 10 | 10.4% |
| 6 | 2 | 2.1% |
| 7 | 8 | 8.4% |
| 8 | 9 | 9.5% |
| 9 | 4 | 4.3% |
| 10 | 9 | 10.1% |
| 11 | 2 | 2.4% |
| 12 | 3 | 3.7% |
| 13 | 5 | 6.3% |
| 14 | 2 | 2.9% |
| 15 | 6 | 9.4% |
| 16 | 5 | 9.4% |
| 17 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 2 | 5.3% |
| 19 | 1 | 3.1% |
| 20 | 2 | 10.5% |
Though post position does mean plenty for a horse's prospects, bettors would be wise not to use it as the sole barometer for determining which wagers to make via our best Kentucky Derby betting sites.
The best post positions in terms of win rate are all multiples of five: the No. 5, No. 10, and No. 20 spots have all produced double-digit win rates - even with the 20 position only having been in place for the 12 Kentucky Derby races prior to last year.
💵 Kentucky Derby in-the-money finishes by post position
Here's a look at the in-the-money (ITM) results by post position in Kentucky Derby history through the 2024 edition of the race. This means that the horse won the race, placed, or showed.
| Post position | ITM rate |
|---|---|
| 1 | 18.9% |
| 2 | 27.4% |
| 3 | 23.2% |
| 4 | 15.8% |
| 5 | 23.2% |
| 6 | 13.7% |
| 7 | 21.3% |
| 8 | 20.2% |
| 9 | 19.8% |
| 10 | 29.5% |
| 11 | 14.3% |
| 12 | 12.5% |
| 13 | 20.6% |
| 14 | 19.5% |
| 15 | 14.3% |
| 16 | 19.2% |
| 17 | 6.7% |
| 18 | 16.2% |
| 19 | 6.5% |
| 20 | 15.8% |
Horses starting from the No. 10 position have produced more in-the-money finishes than any other competitors since 1930, cashing more than 29 percent of the time. The No. 2 spot is a fitting runner-up here, with the 5-hole producing the third-most cashes of all-time.
🔢 Kentucky Derby winners with post positions
Here is a look at recent Kentucky Derby winners, along with their post positions. Six of the last 11 Derby winners have come from posts 13-18.
- 2025 Sovereignty: Post 16
- 2024 Mystik Dan: Post 3
- 2023 Mage: Post 8
- 2022 Rich Strike: Post 20
- 2021 Mandaloun: Post 7
- 2020 Authentic: Post 15
- 2019 Country House: Post 18
- 2018 Justify: Post 7
- 2017 Always Dreaming: Post 5
- 2016 Nyquist: Post 13
- 2015 American Pharoah: Post 15
- 2014 California Chrome: Post 5
- 2013 Orb: Post 15
- 2012 I'll Have Another: Post 19
- 2011 Animal Kingdom: Post 16
- 2010 Super Saver: Post 4
- 2009 Mine That Bird: Post 8
- 2008 Big Brown: Post 20
- 2007 Street Sense: Post 7
- 2006 Barbaro: Post 8
- 2005 Giacomo: Post 10
- 2004 Smarty Jones: Post 13
- 2003 Funny Cide: Post 5
- 2002 War Emblem: Post 5
- 2001 Monarchos: Post 16
- 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus: Post 15
❌ Race day scratch
There have been several scratches thus far leading up to the derby, but perhaps none more significant than The Puma after trainers discovered a medical issue on the morning of race day.
The Puma was one of the leading contenders and a popular pick. LJ Blut has you covered with other options in his Kentucky Derby parlay.
💡How to use post position to handicap the Kentucky Derby
Here's how you can use post position to handicap the Kentucky Derby:
- Understand what post position means. In horse racing, post position refers to the starting gate from which each horse begins the race. The Kentucky Derby has 20 horses, so each horse is assigned a number from 1 to 20 based on the post position they draw.
- Look at historical trends. Over the years, certain post positions have been more successful than others in the Kentucky Derby. For example, horses starting from post positions 5-8 have won the race more often than any other post position, while horses starting from post positions 1 and 2 have won the race the least.
- Consider the horse's running style. Each horse has a running style, which can be classified as a front runner, a stalker, or a closer. Front runners tend to go to the front early and try to stay there, while stalkers tend to sit just behind the leaders and make a move later in the race. Closers tend to stay near the back of the pack early and make a strong late run to the finish. You should consider the horse's running style and how it fits with the post position they drew.
- Look at the track conditions. The track conditions can also impact how well a horse will do in the race. For example, if the track is wet or muddy, it can impact the favorability of being up close and/or near the rail.
- Analyze the entire field. Don't just focus on one or two horses based on their post position. Look at the entire field and consider all of the factors that could impact the outcome of the race. Remember that horse racing is unpredictable, and anything can happen on race day.
Using post position to handicap the Kentucky Derby can be a helpful tool, but it's important to remember that there are many other factors to consider as well. Take your time and do your research, and hopefully, you'll pick a winner!
🏇 More Kentucky Derby picks & predictions
- Kentucky Derby expert predictions
- Kentucky Derby parlay
- Kentucky Derby expert picks
- Kentucky Derby picks and predictions
- Kentucky Derby long shots and sleeper picks
- Kentucky Derby odds & betting favorites
- Kentucky Derby AI prediction & picks
- SBR Kentucky Derby draft picks
- Kentucky Derby betting trends
- Why Chief Wallabee will win the Kentucky Derby
❓ Kentucky Derby post position FAQs
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby 2026?
Americans can legally wager on horse racing in the following states:
Who is the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite?
Renegade (4-1) is the betting favorite for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, starting from the No. 1 post position at Churchill Downs.
Who won last year's Kentucky Derby?
Sovereignty won the 2025 Kentucky Derby, beating favorite Journalism in a thrilling race.
When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
The 2026 Kentucky Derby will be held this Saturday, May 2, at 6:57 p.m. ET.
Where is the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
How are Kentucky Derby odds displayed?
You'll often see horse racing betting sites post odds presented as fractional; for example, an entry might be listed as a 3-1 favorite or a 50-1 underdog. For those looking to convert fractional horse racing odds to American or decimal odds, you can use our free and handy odds converter.
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