🏎️ Monaco Grand Prix Expert Picks: Best Prop Bets for Sunday's Race
For the first time this season, Mercedes is not the betting favorite in an F1 race.
That's because of the slower corners and diminished average race speed at the Monaco Grand Prix, which should level the playing field. Ferrari looks to be the main benefactor, with Charles Leclerc the +175 betting favorite entering Friday's P1. My Monaco Grand Prix expert picks and prop bets take that into consideration.
Sunday's race starts at 9 a.m. ET (ESPN).
💰 Monaco Grand Prix best prop bets
| 💰 Bet | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc & George Russell to finish in top 3 (+240 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 2.4u | Leclerc finished second and first in his last two in Monaco, and Russell is due for a win |
| Both Mercedes and Ferrari drivers to finish in top 6 (+120 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 1.2u | The track suits Ferrari, and Mercedes' dominance is intact |
| Mercedes to win qualifying (+225 via BetMGM) | 0.5u -> 2.25u | Mercedes has won 5 straight in qualifying |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 5.85 units
🥉 Charles Leclerc & George Russell to finish in top 3
In my Monaco Grand Prix predictions, I backed Russell to win the Monaco Grand Prix. He was excellent at the Canadian GP before being derailed by a power unit failure. He'll be ready to go in Monaco, and I'm confident he'll surpass his previous best of fifth place at Circuit de Monaco.
Leclerc is the betting favorite, and he has previously shown his expertise on his home circuit. The Monégasques won the race in 2024 and finished second last year.
💡 Monaco Grand Prix favorites
Providing the Monaco Grand Prix favorites, I offer analysis on which drivers have the best chance of winning on Sunday.
🥉 Both Mercedes and Ferrari drivers to finish in top 6
I've spoken about Mercedes' unerring dominance. While I believe Russell will come out on top, the track is better suited to Ferrari, as the slow corners and the inability to consistently reach high speeds level the playing field.
Ferrari also has the advantage out of the starting gate and on corners, which bodes well for Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.
Hamilton finished second at the Canadian GP, his best finish since joining Ferrari at the start of the 2025 season. Leclerc finished first and second at the last two races in Monaco. I like all four to finish among the top six.
🏆 Mercedes to win qualifying
Winning a sixth straight qualifying won't be easy, but Mercedes has proven its unerring consistency in the early stages of the season. Russell won qualifying twice and Antonelli three times. No other team has taken pole position entering a race.
While that won't last forever, I'm not buying that neither Mercedes driver is a favorite, despite winning every qualifying session and race through five events.
Sure, the race focuses less on power, particularly with some of the slowest corners on the circuit. Still, both Mercedes drivers - especially Russell - won't be overly concerned with the playing field being leveled.
💡 How I'm betting the Monaco Grand Prix
My focus is on Mercedes and Ferrari. I believe both teams will excel. If Mercedes doesn't win qualifying, I expect Ferrari to. I'm slightly more confident in the Mercedes-Ferrari combination picks, which is why I've invested a unit in those.
While the track is better suited for Ferrari, I haven't seen enough from Scuderia to back it to take pole position. I wouldn't be surprised if they do, though.
Russell hasn't finished higher than fifth place, but his performance in Canada before catastrophe struck provides the platform for him to win for the first time in Monaco.
🏆 Past Monaco Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Sergio Pérez | Red Bull-RBPT |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Monaco Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, June 5 @ 7:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, June 5 @ 11 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, June 6 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, June 6 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, June 7 @ 9 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Monaco Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, June 7
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Circuit de Monaco (Monaco)
- How to watch: ESPN
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