Winter Olympics Medal Odds 2026: Prediction Market for Who'll Win Most Gold Medals in Milano-Cortina
The flame has been lit at San Siro, and with the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina finally underway until Feb. 22, the focus is shifting to the battle for overall gold-medal dominance. Norway (-210), the United States (+220), and Germany (+1200) sit atop the futures board once again, but these Games are shaping up to have a very different feel than Beijing.
Whether you are tracking the most gold medals or looking for an edge on total medals overall, this guide breaks down 2026 Winter Olympics medal odds and offers our best predictions.
🥇 2026 Winter Olympic most gold medal odds
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The biggest takeaway from the projected medal table is Norway’s commanding hold on the top spot. With odds of -210, Kalshi traders imply a 65% probability that Norway ends the Games with the most gold medals, making it the only country priced as a favorite at minus-money.
There is a steep drop-off after the top three. Norway (65%), USA (25%), and Germany (9%) are the only nations with a 9% chance or better, suggesting a three-horse race for the top of the podium.
Canada is certainly in the mix as well, and has a great chance to earn gold on the Olympic men's hockey odds. Looking for what to bet on during the Winter Olympics other than hockey? I've got your back there, too.
🥇 Medal count for Winter Olympics 2026
Here's a snapshot of how each country is doing in Milano-Cortina for the Winter Olympics.
| Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Japan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Norway | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Sweden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Switzerland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Slovenia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
📈 How to trade on Olympic gold medals at Kalshi
Kalshi is a prediction market that allows users (traders) to buy and sell predictions like stocks. Yes and No predictions are bought at listed price per share, and markets will close at either $1 or $0 as winners are declared.
| Country | Chance | American odds | Yes (cents) | No (cents) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 65% | -210 | 63¢ | 39¢ |
| United States | 25% | +220 | 28¢ | 72¢ |
| Germany | 9% | +1200 | 9¢ | 91¢ |
| Canada | 6% | +2700 | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| Switzerland | 2% | +6000 | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| Italy | 2% | +6000 | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| China PR | <1% | N/A | 2¢ | N/A |
| Sweden | <1% | N/A | 2¢ | N/A |
| France | <1% | N/A | 1¢ | N/A |
💰 Best pick for most gold medals
Norway’s edge goes far beyond a single superstar. They’re projected to haul in roughly 15-22 gold medals, thanks to being favored across a massive chunk of the biathlon and cross-country slate.
Best long shot pick: Netherlands (1 cent) remains a powerhouse. While they dominate speed skating, their lack of breadth in alpine and Nordic sports keeps them at a long shot price for the overall gold medal title.
🥈 2026 Winter Olympic most total medal odds
The -300 betting odds for Norway in the total medals market represent a massive 73% implied probability on Kalshi, signaling that the Scandinavians aren't just favorites - they are a juggernaut.
💰 Best prediction for most total medals
If you’re not interested in laying the heavy juice on Norway, Germany makes for a strong fallback option. They’re the lone nation with a legitimate shot to dominate the sliding disciplines - luge, bobsleigh, and skeleton - where outcomes tend to be far more predictable. That gives Germany a built-in cushion of roughly 10-12 medals to start the Games, creating a dependable floor for anyone targeting total medal markets.
Best long shot pick: While Italy is a long shot to win the most medals, their presence at +6000 (ahead of powers like Austria and Switzerland) shows that oddsmakers are factoring in the host nation advantage. Historically, host nations see a 15-20% increase in their total medal count.
📺 What to watch at the 2026 Winter Olympics
Here are some of the most popular sports to watch and how to cash in on them at the Games. A complete breakdown can be found in my piece on how to bet the 2026 Winter Olympics.
| Sport | Best Bet Type | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Hockey | Puck line (-1.5) | Medium |
| Alpine Skiing | Head-to-head matchups | High |
| Speed Skating | Outright winner | Low |
| Biathlon | Top 3 podium | Very High |
| Curling | Moneyline | Medium |
⭐ Star athletes to watch at the 2026 Winter Olympics
When these athletes are on your television, you might not want to miss out:
| Name | Country | Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Mikaela Shiffrin | USA | Alpine Skiing |
| Connor McDavid | Canada | Ice Hockey |
| Jordan Stolz | USA | Speed Skating |
| Eileen Gu | China | Freestyle Skiing |
| Marco Odermatt | Switzerland | Alpine Skiing |
| Johannes Thingnes Bø | Norway | Biathlon |
| Ilia Malinin | USA | Figure Skating |
| Chloe Kim | USA | Snowboarding |
| Lindsey Vonn | USA | Alpine Skiing |
| Francesco Friedrich | Germany | Bobsleigh |
❓Winter Olympic FAQs
When are the 2026 Winter Olympics?
The 2026 Winter Olympics will begin Friday, Feb. 6 and run through Sunday, Feb. 22. You can see the Olympic schedule for each event here.
Where are the 2026 Winter Olympics?
The 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milano Cortino, Italy.
How to watch the 2026 Winter Olympics?
The 2026 Winter Olympics will be broadcast on NBC in the United States and on CBC in Canada.
Who won the most medals at the last Winter Olympics?
Norway won the most total medals (37) and the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. They also led the gold medal count with 16.
Where are the next Winter Olympics?
The 2030 Winter Olympics will be held in the French Alps.
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