🩸 UFC 328 Odds: Chimaev vs. Strickland Betting Guide, Predictions & Full Fight Card

UFC 328 heads to the Garden State today, with Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. serving as the venue. The main event carries genuine bad blood - middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev squares off against former titleholder Sean Strickland - and we're tracking live UFC 328 odds for every fight on the card.

The co-main event delivers a flyweight title showdown, with reigning champion Joshua Van making his first belt defense against top contender Tatsuro Taira. Doors open with the early prelims at 5 p.m. ET, the prelims follow at 7 p.m. ET, and the main card gets underway at 9 p.m. ET - all streaming live on Paramount+.

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📊 UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland odds - Main card

Khamzat Chimaev (15-0) vs. Sean Strickland (30-7)

Khamzat Chimaev notes:

• Unbreakable: Chimaev is 15-0 as a professional and has never been taken down in his MMA career, holding a 100% takedown defense rate
• Key stat: Landed 12 takedowns against Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319, tied for third-most in a UFC title fight

Sean Strickland notes:

• The former champ: Strickland shocked the world at UFC 293 and wants that belt back after a TKO win over Anthony Hernandez in February reignited his title bid
• Key stat: Has only been knocked out once in his UFC career (Alex Pereira at UFC 276) and has never been submitted

🩸 Betting outlook

Sean may be nifty at defending takedowns, but Chimaev's suffocating style will prevail in a grappling match with pivotal moments on the fence. Strickland is durable, so I like pairing Chimaev to win (-590) with the fight to go over 2.5 rounds (-128). Dive into my Chimaev vs. Strickland predictions for my full analysis on the fight.

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🤑 Latest Chimaev vs. Strickland betting splits

Betting insights via BetMGM.

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Joshua Van (16-2) vs. Tatsuro Taira (18-1)

Joshua Van notes:

• Power personified: The flyweight champion out of Myanmar hits like a truck at 125 pounds, landing 8.84 significant strikes per minute with the best striking differential in flyweight history (+2.45)
• Key stat: Won the title at UFC 323 when Alexandre Pantoja suffered an arm injury, capping a six-fight win streak

Tatsuro Taira notes:

• Submission specialist: The 26-year-old from Okinawa wraps opponents up like a vine, finishing Brandon Moreno by ground-and-pound and HyunSung Park by face crank in back-to-back wins
• Key stat: Has never been stopped by strikes across 19 professional fights

🩸 Betting outlook

Van has bricks for hands and can put a whooping on anybody. Taira is longer with an explosive grappling attack, so many assume he'll win by submission. I believe Van will knock him out instead, which you can get at +350, in addition to the Van moneyline (+152). Our LJ Blut also backs Van to win with his Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira prediction.

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🤑 Latest Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira betting splits

Betting insights via BetMGM.

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Alexander Volkov (39-11) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2)

Alexander Volkov notes:

• The veteran technician: Volkov holds a five-inch reach advantage (80 inches to 75) and has been knocked out just once in 18 UFC fights (Derrick Lewis at UFC 229)
• Key stat: Lands strikes at a 57% accuracy rate and has gone the distance against Gane, Blaydes, Pavlovich, and Almeida without being finished

Waldo Cortes-Acosta notes:

• The knockout artist: Cortes-Acosta knocked out three opponents between late 2025 and early 2026, capping the run with a second-round demolition of Derrick Lewis at UFC 324
• Key stat: Nine of his 17 wins have come by KO/TKO (53%), with six of those finishes arriving in the first round

🩸 Betting outlook

Waldo is a big boy with simple, hard punches. Volkov has a strong chin and more avenues to win. I like the Volkov moneyline (-174). Our LJ Blut also likes Volkov to win in his Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction.

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Sean Brady (18-2) vs. Joaquin Buckley (21-7)

Sean Brady notes:

• Elite grappler: Brady dominated and submitted former champion Leon Edwards in a short-notice assignment last March before falling to Michael Morales in November
• Key stat: Has finished eight of his 18 career wins by submission

Joaquin Buckley notes:

• Heavy-handed momentum: Buckley trained alongside Kamaru Usman for this camp and has three KO/TKO wins in his last five bouts
• Key stat: Holds a 76% finish rate across 21 career wins

🩸 Betting outlook

Brady is considered an elite wrestler, but I expect Buckley to bring the heat to him early. If Buckley gets striking momentum, he's hard to stop. I like the underdog in a competitive main card fight. Buckley moneyline (+140).

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King Green (34-17-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (29-22)

King Green notes:

• Riding momentum: Green has won two straight including a second-round TKO over Daniel Zellhuber in February, and owns bonus-winning performances over Tony Ferguson, Grant Dawson, and Al Iaquinta
• Key stat: Averages 6.04 significant strikes landed per minute

Jeremy Stephens notes:

• The returning veteran: Stephens is tied for the most fights in UFC history and is back in the Octagon after a run in bare-knuckle boxing that included knockouts of Eddie Alvarez and Jimmie Rivera
• Key stat: 19 of his 29 career wins have come by KO/TKO (66%)

🩸 Betting outlook

Two brawlers past their prime here. It won't be high level, but it's safe to assume this bout ends inside the distance. Look for the fight not to go the distance.

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📊  UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland odds - Prelims

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Ateba Gautier (10-1) vs. Ozzy Diaz (10-3)

Ateba Gautier notes:

• Golden prospect: Gautier earned his UFC deal through Dana White's Contender Series and rattled off four straight wins to open his promotional career, three by first-round stoppage
• Key stat: Eight of his 10 career wins have come by KO/TKO

Ozzy Diaz notes:

• The former LFA champ: Diaz is a tested veteran who scored a unanimous decision over Djorden Santos in his return to middleweight last March at UFC 313
• Key stat: Has won three of his last four bouts, all by decision

🩸 Betting outlook

Gautier, a punishing up-and-comer, wants a statement win after a lacklustre showing against Pulyaev. Diaz is one of the worst fighters on the roster. I like Ateba in Round 1.

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Joel Alvarez (23-3) vs. Yaroslav Amosov (29-1)

Joel Alvarez notes:

• El Fenomeno: The Spaniard moved to welterweight last year and earned a decision win over Vicente Luque, who became the first opponent to survive to the scorecards against Alvarez
• Key stat: Owns a 78% finish rate across 23 career wins

Yaroslav Amosov notes:

• The former Bellator champion: Amosov paused his career to defend his hometown of Irpin during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, then returned and submitted Neil Magny in his UFC debut last December
• Key stat: Has won 29 of 30 professional fights and his only loss came via split decision

🩸 Betting outlook

A firefight for as long as it lasts. I'm riding with the upside from Alvarez (+144), who has some of the most violent offense in the game.

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Grant Dawson (23-3-1) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (20-4)

Grant Dawson notes:

• Rebuilding: Dawson needs a reset after a first-round stoppage loss to Manuel Torres at UFC 323 last December snapped a solid run
• Key stat: Averages 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC

Mateusz Rebecki notes:

• Fight of the Night machine: Rebecki lost both of his 2025 outings via decision, but each bout against Chris Duncan and Ludovit Klein earned Fight of the Night honors
• Key stat: 13 of his 20 career wins have come by finish (65%)

🩸 Betting outlook

This is a close fight between two wrestle-first lightweights. Oftentimes, two wrestlers end up striking the whole time. I suspect Dawson will be gunshy, leading to this fight dragging on for a long time. Look for the fight to go over 2.5 rounds.

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Jared Gordon (21-8) vs. Jim Miller (38-19)

Jared Gordon notes:

• New York grit: The Brooklyn native has won four of his last five bouts and can hurt opponents on the feet or grind them on the mat
• Key stat: Averages 4.36 significant strikes landed per minute

Jim Miller notes:

• Record breaker: Miller is making his record-extending 46th UFC appearance, the most in promotional history, and is fighting at his home-state venue of Prudential Center
• Key stat: Holds the UFC records for most submissions (16) and most finishes overall (21)

🩸 Betting outlook

In a perfect world, I’d steer clear of betting this fight. Gordon is heavily favored, but there’s not enough certainty - even against a weathered Miller - to lay that kind of chalk. I’d expect this to be a grindy fight, eventually going the distance.

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📊 UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland odds - Early Prelims

Roman Kopylov (14-5) vs. Marco Tulio (14-2)

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Baisangur Susurkaev (11-0) vs. Djorden Santos (11-2)

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Clayton Carpenter (8-2) vs. Jose Ochoa (11-2)

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📺 Where to watch UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

• Date: Saturday, May 9
• Start times: 5:00 p.m. ET (early prelims), 7 p.m. ET (prelims), 9 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Prudential Center (Newark, New Jersey)
• Streaming: Paramount+

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