MLB Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (July 16)
If you thought a one-game slate post-All-Star break would keep me from making my home run predictions tonight, you're greatly underestimating my commitment to dingers.
My MLB home run picks will be scaled back slightly tonight, as making two long ball selections from one game is risky enough business. But there's significant value to be found in that one contest, and it begins with Francisco Lindor, the Mets' mashing infielder who's beginning to hit his stride after a prolonged injury absence earlier this season.
βΎ Home run predictions tonight: MLB HR picks & odds July 16
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (+403 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.81u | Aaron Nola's fastball is getting demolished. |
| Bo Bichette (+630 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.26u | Returned to form with an .883 OPS in June. |
Total wagered: 0.40 units | Max profit: 2.07 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds tonight
Home run pick: Francisco Lindor (+403)
Lindor put up an .846 OPS across the five games heading into the All-Star break. The real Lindor could be on his way back soon then after a lengthy injury absence, and there's no better pitcher to breathe more life into a resurgent slugger than Aaron Nola.
His OPS allowed sits at .832, and it's an even worse .853 against lefties. The switch-hitting Lindor will be on that side, and he'll see lots of heat. Nola throws his fastball 27% of the time to lefties, and it's the third-worst four-seamer in the majors by slugging percentage allowed at a whopping .737.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
📡 SBR Edge: Hunting heat
The sample size this season is limited for Lindor, but last year he put up a .592 slugging percentage against four-seamers with a 52.5% hard-hit rate.
π₯ More home run predictions tonight
Home run pick: Bo Bichette (+630)
Nola's struggles present the ideal time for a deep-ball sprinkle on another member of the Mets' infield, especially at these alluring lengthy odds for Bo Bichette.
The third baseman has scuffled a bit to begin July, but he's not far removed from by far his best month of the season. Bichette put up an .883 OPS in June while clubbing five of his 10 homers thus far. It was a dramatic improvement from his .576 OPS in May, and showed he's finally settling in with his new club.
Nola leans on his slider more against righties while throwing it 30% of the time, according to Baseball Savant, and Bichette is slugging .467 against that pitch with a 46% hard-hit rate.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
ποΈ Mets vs. Phillies betting splits
Public wagering percentages via DraftKings.
| Team / bet type | Current line | Public bet % |
|---|---|---|
| Mets | ||
| π΅ Moneyline | +108 | 28% |
| π΅ Run line | +1.5 (-182) | 18% |
| π΅ Total | o9.5 (-112) | 52% |
| Phillies | ||
| π΄ Moneyline | -130 | 72% |
| π΄ Run line | -1.5 (+150) | 82% |
| π΄ Total | u9.5 (-108) | 48% |
π Best home run parlay picks tonight
💵 Best MLB home run parlay tonight
- Francisco Lindor (+403)
- Bo Bichette (+630)
Best odds: +3000 via DraftKings (0.02u -> u0.6)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 61-170-2 | -2.21 units β | -2.5% β |
| Home run picks | 33-110-0 | -0.01 units β | -3.01% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-40 | +0.64 units β | +0.78% β |
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