NBA Monitoring Prediction Markets, Will Treat Them Like Sportsbooks

The NBA will not treat prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket any differently from traditional sports betting companies, according to NBA Commissioner Adam Silver. His comments add the NBA to the growing list of leagues that are either monitoring prediction markets or outright partnering with them.

The best prediction markets operators currently promote themselves as investment platforms, but speaking at a press conference in Los Angeles during All-Star Weekend, Silver made it clear he saw no distinction.

“We currently are looking at prediction markets essentially in the same way that we’re looking at sports betting markets or sports betting companies. It’s rapidly evolving. Prediction markets have now come on the scene fairly recently as, I don’t know how else to say it, major sports betting marketplaces. Whether prediction markets are allowed to go forward in the form they’re in now will, I think, be ultimately an issue for the courts and for Congress,” he said. 

Prediction market operators say their events contracts fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), but that has been challenged in multiple US states, including Nevada, where Polymarket is currently banned.  

Some major gambling and financial platforms have added prediction markets to their products, and the CEO of sportsbook operator Fanatics, Matt King, recently argued that there was a distinction between sports betting and prediction markets. 

Although the NBA has not publicly endorsed prediction markets, it still invited executives from Kalshi and Polymarket to its annual All-Star Tech Summit.

Silver also voiced broader concerns about the scale of global betting on the league, noting that nearly 40 US states have legalized sports betting, while around 80 countries worldwide permit betting on the NBA. You can keep up-to-date on the individual states in our legal sports betting states tracker.

The issue gained added attention when Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo announced he had taken a shareholder stake in Kalshi. That investment complies with league rules because it falls below the 1% ownership cap for players’ investments in betting-related companies.

NFL signals eventual openness to prediction markets

The NFL has also expressed strong reservations about prediction markets, but recent comments suggest it may be becoming more flexible on the issue. 

Speaking before Super Bowl LX last week, the EVP of the NFL, Jeff Miller, said the NFL was closely monitoring developments, “It’s innovative, that marketplace is dynamic. We’re not quite sure what regulation is gonna look like.” 

He also acknowledged that prediction markets can serve as a fan engagement tool but stressed that the league’s principles around integrity and consumer protection would not change.

In December, Miller submitted testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture expressing concerns about sports-related event contracts, particularly in states where sports betting is still illegal, citing the absence of safeguards common in regulated betting markets. 

That caution has also been echoed by the NFL Commissioner, Roger Goodell, who said the league would not enter the space without a clear regulatory framework.