3M Open First-Round Leader Prediction & Odds: Who Leads After Round 1 in TPC Twin Cities?

The 3M Open first-round leader market takes center stage this week as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, for one of the final events of the regular season.

The tournament begins this week with a competitive field looking to capitalize on a birdie-friendly layout and secure valuable FedEx Cup points before the postseason. TPC Twin Cities is known for its generous fairways, reachable par 5s, and scoring opportunities, but water hazards come into play on several holes and can quickly derail a round. Those conditions make the first-round leader market especially appealing, as players who get hot with the putter can race up the leaderboard and create outstanding betting value after Thursday's opening round.

💰 3M Open first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the 3M Open.

⛳ Who'll lead the 3M Open after Round 1?

Jackson Koivun (+5000)

Jackson Koivun has the skill set to make an immediate impact at the 3M Open and finish Thursday atop the leaderboard. The rising young talent has consistently showcased elite ball-striking and an aggressive scoring mentality, two traits that are ideal for TPC Twin Cities' birdie-friendly layout.

If his irons are sharp early, he'll generate plenty of quality looks at birdie throughout the round. With less pressure than many of the tournament favorites, Koivun can play freely, attack pins, and post a low number before changing afternoon conditions tighten the competition.

Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)

Hideki Matsuyama has all the tools to open the 3M Open with the lowest score of the day. One of the game's premier ball-strikers, Matsuyama consistently gives himself birdie opportunities with elite iron play, a skill that should translate well to TPC Twin Cities.

If his putter heats up, he has the ability to go on extended birdie runs and separate from the field. With experience, patience, and a proven ability to post low rounds, Matsuyama is an excellent first-round leader candidate capable of taking advantage of ideal scoring conditions on Thursday.

Jake Knapp (+4500)

Jake Knapp has the firepower to jump out to a fast start and lead the 3M Open after Thursday's opening round. One of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, Knapp can take advantage of TPC Twin Cities' scoring opportunities by setting up short approach shots and plenty of birdie chances.

His aggressive style is well suited for the first-round leader market, where going low is the only objective. If he finds an early rhythm with the putter, Knapp has the scoring upside to post one of the day's best rounds and top the leaderboard.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are typically best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

Thursday's weather at TPC Twin Cities

Weather from Accuweather:

📊 3M Open first-round leader odds

Here are the 3M Open first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.