🎯 Arnold Palmer Invitational Long Shots & Sleeper Picks After Round 1: 3 Bets to Make Now
As the Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Fla., from March 5 - March 8, the event sets the stage for another thrilling week of golf with who else but Scottie Scheffler favored pre tournament.
Last year, Russell Henley took home the trophy with a clutch final round to win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, edging out the field with a strong performance. As we dive into this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational long shot and sleeper picks, keep the value in mind of a few long shot plays. A $10 wager on our best bet pays out $350.
⛳ Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 2 leaderboard & odds
Here is Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard heading into Round 2 at Bay Hill Club & Lodge; outright odds via FanDuel.
| Position | Golfer | Score (to par) | Odds to win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Berger | -9 | +550 |
| T-2 | Collin Morikawa | -6 | +500 |
| T-2 | Ludvig Aberg | -6 | +850 |
| T-4 | Jhonattan Vegas | -5 | +10000 |
| T-4 | Cameron Young | -5 | +1200 |
| T-6 | Ryan Fox | -4 | +4000 |
| T-6 | Xander Schauffele | -4 | +1300 |
| T-6 | Adam Scott | -4 | +2500 |
| T-9 | Billy Horschel | -3 | +17500 |
| T-9 | Min Woo Lee | -3 | +3500 |
| T-9 | Corey Conners | -3 | +6000 |
| T-9 | Harris English | -3 | +3300 |
| T-9 | Keith Mitchell | -3 | +6000 |
| T-9 | Bud Cauley | -3 | +12500 |
| T-9 | Kurt Kitayama | -3 | +3000 |
| T-9 | Chris Gotterup | -3 | +3300 |
| T-9 | Rickie Fowler | -3 | +3500 |
🎯 Arnold Palmer Invitational long-shot picks after Round 1
Here are our best long-shot golf picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational based on the odds from our best golf betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.
| Pick | Best odds | Confidence | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fox | +4000 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ | .10 units to win 4 |
| Russell Henley | +5500 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐ | .10 units to win 5.5 |
| Si Woo Kim | +6000 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐ | .10 units to win 6 |
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💰 Best Arnold Palmer Invitational sleeper bet after Round 1
Ryan Fox (+4000)
Ryan Fox is poised to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this weekend because his recent form and ball-striking are elite. He’s shown excellent distance control and accuracy off the tee, and played a -4 round on Thursday.
Fox’s experience in strong fields gives him confidence, and he’s consistently shown the ability to contend in big events. He’s also been trending toward better putting, which could be the edge needed to separate himself late in the week. If he keeps his momentum and manages the course smartly, Fox has the talent and current play to capture this title.
🐎 Arnold Palmer Invitational dark horse picks after Round 1
Russell Henley (+4500)
Arnold Palmer Invitational defending champion Russell Henley is once again in a strong position to contend after opening the tournament with a steady 2-under-par round on Thursday. Bay Hill is a demanding course that rewards precision iron play and smart course management -two areas where Henley consistently excels. Having already won this event last year, he understands how to navigate the challenging greens and difficult closing stretch better than most of the field.
Henley’s accuracy off the tee and elite approach numbers make him especially dangerous on a course where avoiding big mistakes is critical. Starting the week at −2 keeps him firmly within striking distance of the lead while conserving momentum for the weekend rounds. With proven success at Bay Hill and confidence from last year’s victory, Henley is well positioned to make another Sunday charge and capture a repeat title.
Si Woo Kim (+6000)
Si Woo Kim is in a strong position to contend for the title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational after opening the tournament with a steady 1-under-par round on Thursday. Bay Hill is known for demanding accuracy, patience, and elite short-game play—areas where Kim has historically excelled throughout his PGA Tour career. His ability to keep the ball in play off the tee and attack pins with precise iron shots makes him a dangerous contender on a challenging layout.
Starting the week at −1 keeps Kim well within striking distance heading into the weekend, especially on a course where scores often remain tight. If Kim continues to capitalize on scoring opportunities while limiting mistakes, he has the skill set and experience to climb the leaderboard and capture another big PGA Tour victory at Bay Hill.
Our Esten McLaren is also backing a few golfers in prime position in his Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.
💡 How I'm handicapping the Arnold Palmer Invitational after Round 1
Two of the last three champions at the Arnold Palmer Invitational closed at +4000 or higher, including a +20000 winner, so I’m zeroing in on a few deeper long-shot options to win this week.
This event has regularly rewarded bettors willing to dig past the favorites and find value further down the board. With scoring conditions that can create swings on the leaderboard, volatility becomes a real factor and opens the door for sleepers to make a weekend charge. Instead of locking in on the shortest prices, I’m leaning into the unpredictability and targeting players with upside, strong ball-striking profiles, and the potential to heat up with the putter at appealing odds.
📜 Arnold Palmer Invitational betting history
Here are the recent winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando. Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Russell Henley | -11 | +4000 |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | -15 | +650 |
| 2023 | Kurt Kitayama | -9 | +20000 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -5 | +2000 |
| 2021 | Bryson DeChambeau | -11 | +1200 |
| 2020 | Tyrrell Hatton | -4 | +5000 |
| 2019 | Francesco Molinari | -12 | +2500 |
| 2018 | Rory McIlroy | -18 | +1600 |
| 2017 | Marc Leishman | -11 | +8000 |
| 2016 | Jason Day | -17 | +1200 |
⛳ Arnold Palmer Invitational tournament info
- Where: Bay Hill Club & Lodge (Orlando)
- When: Thursday, March 5 - Sunday, March 8
- Field: 72
- Cut: 36 holes (top 50 and ties, and anyone within 10 strokes of the lead)
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+350 via FanDuel)
- Defending champion: Russell Henley
- Purse: $20 million ($4 million to first)
- FedEx Cup points: 700
📊 Arnold Palmer Invitational full-field odds
Here are the odds to win for everyone in the Arnold Palmer Invitational field:
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