Farmers Insurance Open Long Shot Picks & Sleepers: Jump on Brooks Koepka's Long Odds
My Farmers Insurance Open long-shot picks & sleepers back Brooks Koepka, Aldrich Potgieter, and Eric Cole as sleepers to win this week's PGA Tour tournament at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego. We won't be able to back Koepka at these +5500 odds for long as he begins his PGA Tour return this week.
Although last year’s champion, Harris English, returns to this year’s 147-player field, I’m focusing on three long shots to take the title. With Scottie Scheffler sitting out and betting favorite Xander Schauffele at +1475, there’s excellent value to be found among a few sleepers and long-shot picks in the outright market.
🎯 Farmers Insurance Open long shots
Here are our best long-shot golf picks for Farmers Insurance Open based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
| Pick | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Brooks Koepka | +5500 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | +10000 |
| Eric Cole | +10000 |
🐎 Farmers Insurance Open sleeper picks
Brooks Koepka (+6000)
The five-time major winner is making his long-awaited return to the PGA Tour. This will be Koepka’s first non-major PGA Tour event since 2022. He is undoubtedly one of the most talented golfers in the field, yet his Farmers Insurance Open odds are inflated as he returns to competitive golf. To me, the only question is whether he can reach his top level in his return, which I would assume is a pretty emotional challenge for him.
If Koepka can find his putter early, he has a great chance to be in the mix come Championship Sunday. With his odds moving from +5000 to +6000, he's worth a play. Right now, Koepka is receiving 2.6% of the handle and 5.7% of tickets over at BetMGM.
Our Dustin Saracini looks at how to bet Brooks Koepka with some more conservative markets.
Aldrich Potgieter (+10000)
Aldrich Potgieter burst onto the scene in 2025 with a top-15 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. This course favors players who can drive the ball extremely far, and that is Potgieter’s strength. As a 20-year-old, he stood out for his exceptional driving distance, averaging 329.5 yards in his recent appearances. He has the exact skill set needed to win at Torrey Pines Golf Course.
If Potgieter can keep his drives accurate, he will have a great chance to be a major player come Championship Sunday. Right now, he's receiving about 1.1% of the handle and 2.2% of tickets over at BetMGM.
Eric Cole (+10000)
My third and final long-shot pick is Eric Cole at +10000 odds. Cole finished last week’s American Express tournament in 27th and is a dark horse who could take home the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open Championship. He made the cut at the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open but had a disastrous final round of +5. I believe his odds are mispriced and should be significantly shorter.
If Cole can maintain his form from last week’s American Express tournament, he has a real chance to be fighting for the championship on Sunday.
Saracini offers more Farmers Insurance Open picks for this weekend.
📊 Farmers Insurance Open betting trends
Betting trends are courtesy of BetMGM
| Category | Player | Data |
|---|---|---|
| Line movement (Opening → Current) | Xander Schauffele | +1600 → +1400 |
| Brooks Koepka | +5000 → +6000 | |
| Most tickets 🎟️ | Cameron Young | 5.9% |
| Brooks Koepka | 5.7% | |
| Ludvig Åberg | 5.7% | |
| Most handle 💸 | Xander Schauffele | 10.3% |
| Jake Knapp | 7.3% | |
| Max Homa | 7.2% | |
| Biggest liabilities 💰 | Chris Gotterup | – |
| Jake Knapp | – | |
| Cameron Young | – |
📜 Farmers Insurance Open betting history
Here are the recent winners of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego, Calif. Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Harris English | -8 | +8000 |
| 2024 | Matthieu Pavon | -13 | +12500 |
| 2023 | Max Homa | -13 | +2000 |
| 2022 | Luke List | -15 (playoff) | +6000 |
| 2021 | Patrick Reed | -14 | +2500 |
| 2020 | Marc Leishman | -15 | +5000 |
| 2019 | Justin Rose | -21 | +1400 |
| 2018 | Jason Day | -10 (playoff) | +2000 |
| 2017 | Jon Rahm | -13 | +5000 |
| 2016 | Brandt Snedeker | -6 | +1500 |
🧠 Farmers Insurance Open expert picks
⛳ Farmers Insurance Open tournament info 2026
- Where: Torrey Pines (San Diego, Calif.)
- When: Thursday, Jan. 29 - Sunday, Feb. 1
- Field: 147
- Favorite: Xander Schauffele (+1475 via DraftKings)
- Defending champion: Harris English
- Purse: $9.6 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
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