2026 Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks: Best Outright, Prop & Matchup Bets for Torrey Pines
Get set for today with my Farmers Insurance Open picks from beautiful San Diego at Torrey Pines Golf Course. Brooks Koepka (+6600) makes his return from LIV, so you better believe we'll be adding him to our card this week. With ESPN airing live coverage of the tournament today and tomorrow, and Scottie Scheffler out this week, how could I not?
From outright picks, to long shots, to my best top-five play, let's get into the lab and bring the units home.
💰 Farmers Insurance Open picks
Here are our top golf picks for Farmers Insurance Open
| Market | Pick | Best odds | OWGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outright winner | Hideki Matsuyama | +2500 | No. 16 |
| Long shot winner | Jason Day | +3100 | No. 33 |
| Top-five finish | Brooks Koepka | +1100 | No. 255 |
🏆 Farmers Insurance Open pick to win: Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
There's something about this track that Mastuyama absolutely loves. He has one third-place finish, two top-10 finishes, and five top-25 finishes at Torrey Pines. His proximity to the hole and solid approach is exactly what he needs for this golf course, and this is the year he finally breaks through and wins it. I'm playing him outright at these long betting odds as well as the "Top Asian Player."
Other than Matsuyama, our Esten McLaren is banking on Will Zalatoris (+4900) to win outright at the Farmers Insurance Open.
🎯 Farmers Insurance Open sleeper pick: Jason Day (+3100)
Jason Day is your "specialist" at Torrey Pines. His resume is legendary at this course: he has two wins, five top-five finishes, seven top-10s, and eight top-25s. His Strokes Gained: Approach has been the best part of his game, and will help him out with Torrey Pines' tough and thick Kikuyu grass roughs. I'll also be playing him at +650 to finish top five.
For more long shots, our LJ Blut drops his favorite Farmers Insurance Open sleeper picks for the weekend.
🔥 Best bets for Farmers Insurance Open
After Ludvig Abeg withdrew from the American Express last week, I had to dive back into this market and find us a winner.
Brooks Koepka prop bet: Top-5 finish (+1100)
Here's your exciting wild card. You can't place your wagers without adding Brooks, can you? He makes his long-awaited return to the PGA Tour after four years with LIV through the Returning Member Program.
Now, I won't be touching his +6000 betting odds to win outright, but if he finds his rhythm early, he can absolutely be there on Sunday. He has one top-25 and one top-10 finish at Torrey Pines already - let's see him take another step in the right direction in his first tournament back.
Koepka is a part of the biggest line movers since the odds opened for the Farmers Insurance Open, moving from +5000 to +6000 to win outright. He's taken 5.7% of tickets, according to BetMGM.
For a more in-depth look, I discuss how to bet Brooks Koepka at the Farmers Insurance Open and dish out two more plays to bet on.
First-round matchup: Brooks Koepka (+100) vs. Denny McCarthy
If you're looking to bet Koepka in a safer environment, his first-round matchup against Denny McCarthy is the place to be. Yes, Brooks is a wild card this week - we don't know what type of game he'll bring to Torrey Pines after an extended layoff. But Koepka's ceiling is much higher than McCarthy's, who comes into the Farmers Insurance Open after finishing T40 at the Sony Open and T56 at the American Express tournament last week. Bet Koepka at even-money, and let's double up.
📺 How to watch Brooks Koepka's return to PGA Tour
The PGA Tour and ESPN announced that the first two rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open will air live on ESPN,highlighting Brooks Koepka’s return to PGA Tour action.
| Date | Time (ET) | Coverage | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jan 29 | 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM | ESPN | Streamed on Hulu & Disney+ |
| Friday, Jan 30 | 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM | ESPN | Streamed on Hulu & Disney+ |
| Friday, Jan 30 | 3:00 PM onward | Golf Channel | Live coverage continues after ESPN window |
ESPN will broadcast from noon to 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 29, and Friday, Jan. 30, as Koepka leads a 145-player field at Torrey Pines Golf Course. This marks the first live coverage of a non-major Tour event on ESPN in nearly two decades, with streams also available on Hulu and Disney+. After 3 p.m. ET each day, live coverage continues on Golf Channel.
Koepka will play in a featured group for both rounds alongside Max Homa, a former Farmers Insurance Open champion, and Ludvig Åberg, who claimed a Tour victory at Torrey Pines last year.
🏌️Farmers Insurance Open featured tee times
Here are your featured tee-off times for Thursday for the Farmers Insurance Open.
Torrey Pines South Course - 1st hole
| Tee Time | Player 1 | Player 2 | Player 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:21 PM | Si Woo Kim | Eric Cole | Max McGreevy |
| 12:32 PM | Ludvig Åberg | Brooks Koepka | Max Homa |
| 12:43 PM | Xander Schauffele | JJ Spaun | Harris English |
| 1:16 PM | Seamus Power | Mackenzie Hughes | Lanto Griffin |
| 1:38 PM | Cameron Young | Akshay Bhatia | Patrick Cantlay |
| 1:49 PM | Tony Finau | Alex Noren | Marco Penge |
Torrey Pines South Course - 10th Hole
| Tee Time | Player 1 | Player 2 | Player 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:10 PM | Rafael Campos | Tom Hoge | Rasmus Højgaard |
| 12:43 PM | William Mouw | Jhonattan Vegas | Cam Davis |
| 1:27 PM | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | Thorbjørn Olesen | Takumi Kanaya |
Torrey Pines North Course - 1st Hole
| Tee Time | Player 1 | Player 2 | Player 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:10 PM | Doug Ghim | Max Greyserman | Mac Meissner |
| 1:16 PM | Adam Svensson | Charley Hoffman | Kevin Roy |
| 1:38 PM | Sami Välimäki | Davis Thompson | Billy Horschel |
Torrey Pines North Course - 10th Hole
| Tee Time | Player 1 | Player 2 | Player 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:21 PM | Sahith Theegala | Taylor Moore | Mark Hubbard |
| 12:32 PM | Maverick McNealy | Wyndham Clark | Will Zalatoris |
| 1:38 PM | Justin Rose | Hideki Matsuyama | Jason Day |
| 1:49 PM | Chris Gotterup | Keegan Bradley | Adam Scott |
| 2:00 PM | Matthieu Pavon | Brandt Snedeker | Kristoffer Reitan |
⚖️ How I'm handicapping the Farmers Insurance Open
In order to feel confident in your plays this week, you have to understand the golf course.
- Approach shots are huge at Torrey Pines as over 35% of appoach shots on the South Course come from 200-plus yards. This is one of the main reasons why Matsuyama has played this track so well.
- Putting on "bumpy" Poa Annua greens also comes into play, which is why I'm also backing Day this week - one of the more well-rounded putters on the PGA Tour.
📊 Farmers Insurance Open betting trends
Betting trends are courtesy of BetMGM
| Category | Player | Data |
|---|---|---|
| Line movement (Opening → Current) | Xander Schauffele | +1600 → +1400 |
| Brooks Koepka | +5000 → +6000 | |
| Most tickets 🎟️ | Cameron Young | 5.9% |
| Brooks Koepka | 5.7% | |
| Ludvig Åberg | 5.7% | |
| Most handle 💸 | Xander Schauffele | 10.3% |
| Jake Knapp | 7.3% | |
| Max Homa | 7.2% | |
| Biggest liabilities 💰 | Chris Gotterup | – |
| Jake Knapp | – | |
| Cameron Young | – |
☀️ Farmers Insurance Open weather report
- Thursday (Opening round): Partly cloudy with highs around 70-71°F and lows near 49-50°F, light winds, and no rain expected.
- Friday: More sunshine and mild temps near 74°F, light winds, and dry conditions.
- Saturday: Warm and sunny with highs around 75°F, breezes, and very low risk of rain.
- Sunday: Sunny and mild near 75°F, calm winds, and continued dry weather.
🧠 Farmers Insurance Open expert picks
⛳ Farmers Insurance Open tournament info 2026
- Where: Torrey Pines Golf Course (North and South), San Diego (La Jolla), Calif.
- When: Thursday, Jan 29 - Sunday, Feb 1, 2026
- Field: 145–147 Players (expanded to include Brooks Koepka under the Returning Member Program)
- Favorite: Xander Schauffele (+1300 to +1400 via FanDuel/BetMGM)
- Defending champion: Harris English (2025)
- Purse: $9.6 million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
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