⛳ Masters Win Probability: Who Will Win the 2026 Masters?

The Masters is the most anticipated major in golf, and understanding the Masters win probability is the key to finding value - whether you're trading on Kalshi or any of our other best prediction market apps. This year's market has Scottie Scheffler as the heavy favorite at 16%, with Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm each carrying an 8% achance. But in a field this deep, even the favorite wins less than one in five times.

That gap between the favorite and the rest of the field is exactly where smart traders find opportunity. Here's how to read the Masters odds and win probabilities and act on them. The 2026 Masters field is up to 92 players, with the final spot going to the winner of this week's Valero Texas Open - if not already exempt.

⛳ Masters win probability: Who will win the 2026 Masters?

There has already been more than $31 million traded on the 2026 Masters champion market at Kalshi, and that number will soar over the next week. At the time of publication, Scheffler was the heavy favorite among traders, receiving a 16% chance to win his third green jacket on Sunday, April 12.

DeChambeau and Rahm each have an 8% chance of winning, with defending tournament champion Rory McIlroy owning a 7% chance. Xander Schauffele (6%) and Ludvig Aberg (5%) - two non-winners with elite course history at Augusta National Golf Course - are the only others with at least a 5% chance to win the season's first major.

Other notables include:

• Cameron Young 4%
• Matt Fitzpatrick 4%
• Tommy Fleetwood 4%
• Brooks Koepka 3%
• Justin Rose 3%
• Patrick Reed 3%
• Jordan Spieth 3%
• Justin Thomas 2%

💰 Who's most likely to win the 2026 Masters?

Kalshi traders are projecting Scottie Scheffler to win the 2026 Masters with a 16% chance. He opened with a 27% chance on February 4, but that percentage has dropped significantly over the past two months. Scheffler has won "just" one tournament this year - his season debut in The American Express - and he hasn't played since a T-22 finish in The Players Championship.

The 14 cent Yes price for Scheffler to win the Masters would return a profit of $615 on a winning $100 investment. Note that Kalshi markets are live and act as stocks. Traders can buy and sell shares in golfers to win throughout the tournament, with the leaderboard and their performance impacting their share price from Thursday through Sunday. The higher a golfer is on the leaderboard once the tournament begins, the higher their chance (probability) of winning will be, or at least be perceived to be.

👉 Who will win the 2026 Masters?

Bryson DeChambeau (8%)

I've been backing Bryson DeChambeau to win the 2026 Masters since his disappointing T-5 finish last year, and he's only been proving me right. I expect that seeing how Rory McIlroy handled a near-disaster with a double bogey on No. 13 and bogeys on 14 and 18 last year will help him learn as he looks to overcome his own struggles on the back 9 a year ago.

He'll enter the first major of the season off back-to-back wins on the LIV Golf Invitational Series in Singapore and South Africa. Those victories - both in 72-hole events - came after he won just three times in his first three seasons after joining the rebel tour.

The second of DeChambeau's victories came in a playoff over Jon Rahm - a former Masters champion who shares an 8% chance to win the 2026 Masters.

DeChambeau has played his best golf in majors over the past two years. He finished in the top 10 in six of the last eight major championships and won the 2024 U.S. Open. One of golf's best ambassadors, he seems to be following a trajectory toward a green jacket. The two-time U.S. Open champion can lean on his routine strengths of driving distance and putting. 

🏆 Will Rory McIlroy defend the Masters?

McIlroy is being give a 7% chance of defending as the Masters champion. Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002 was the last person to win consecutive green jackets. Nick Faldo in 1989 and 1990 was the last before him.

I consider there to be good value on McIlroy to win the Masters with his 7% win probability. Having come oh-so-close so many times before at Augusta National, last year's victory will have him playing the first major pressure free for the first time in his career. He leads DeChambeau in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and driving distance, and he's gained more than twice as many strokes on approach per round as Scheffler this calendar year.

I believe Kalshi traders are discounting the defending champion. McIlroy's 7% win probability translates to odds of +1330 and would return a profit of $133 on a winning $10 investment.

🆚 Masters win probabilities: Tournament matchups

There are some early 72-hole tournament matchup trading markets available at Kalshi. These markets ask a golfer to beat the other by having the lower 72-hole tournament score. If the golfer you pick wins the matchup, Yes will be graded as the winner.

⚖️ How to trade on the Masters

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple yes/no contracts. For the 2026 Masters, that means markets tied to questions like whether Scottie Scheffler wins at Augusta, if Rory McIlroy finally completes the career Grand Slam, or which player claims the low round of the tournament.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think Scheffler will win the Masters and buy a "Yes" contract at 30 cents, that implies a 30% chance. If Scheffler wins, the contract settles at $1, netting you 70 cents per share. If he doesn't, it settles at $0.

Prices fluctuate in real time as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the crowd's collective expectations - and shifts with every round, every leaderboard move, and every weather delay across four days at Augusta National.

How does Kalshi differ from sports betting?

Sportsbooks vs. Kalshi - the key differences

If you've ever placed a bet at a sportsbook, Kalshi will feel familiar but work differently in a few important ways.

At a traditional sportsbook, you bet against the house at a fixed line. The book sets the odds, builds in a margin (the "vig"), and you either win or lose at those terms. For the Masters, that might look like Scheffler at +300 to slip on the green jacket - meaning a $100 bet returns $300 profit if he wins.

On Kalshi, there is no house. You trade directly with other users in an open market. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities rather than traditional American odds. A contract priced at 20 cents implies a 20% chance of winning - the same information as American odds, just presented differently. There is no vig baked into a fixed line; instead, the spread between the buy and sell price is how the market operates.

The flexibility advantage

The other major difference is flexibility. A sportsbook bet is locked in once placed. On Kalshi, you can sell your contract at any time before the tournament ends - locking in a profit if the price has moved in your favor, or cutting your losses if your contender shoots himself out of contention with a double on Amen Corner. This makes Kalshi feel less like gambling and more like trading, where strategy and timing matter as much as picking the right champion.

Why trade on Kalshi instead of a sportsbook?

Four key advantages

Kalshi offers four key advantages for Masters prediction markets:

• Flexibility: Unlike a locked-in sportsbook futures bet, you can sell your contract at any time before the outcome is decided — especially valuable across four unpredictable days at Augusta, where leaderboards can swing dramatically after every round
• Transparency: You trade against other users in an open market, which can surface better value than a sportsbook futures line where the house always has an edge
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, audited environment - a level of oversight most offshore sportsbooks don't offer
• Wider availability: Kalshi operates in many U.S. states where traditional sports betting is not yet legal, making Masters markets accessible to a broader audience