🎯 Players Championship Long Shots & Sleeper Picks: 3 Picks to Win Longer Than +7500

Leading the 2026 Players Championship field as the pre-tournament favorite is none other than Scottie Scheffler, who once again enters the event with high expectations and +480 odds to win.

Last year, Rory McIlroy took home the trophy with a clutch performance in a playoff to win his second Players Championship at odds of +1400. My Players Championship long shots and sleeper picks look for longer odds to win after McIlroy and Scheffler have dominated this event in recent years. A $10 wager on our best bet pays out $1,150. Of note, J.J. Spaun lost to McIlroy in a playoff last year, after entering the tournament with odds of +11000.

Get on these picks early before the Players Championship odds tighten up.

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🎯 Players Championship long-shot picks

Here are our best long-shot golf picks for The Players Championship based on the odds from our best golf betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

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💰 Best Players Championship sleeper bet

Corey Conners (+11500)

Corey Conners enters this week’s The Players Championship as a compelling value option, bringing the type of consistent ball-striking that tends to succeed at TPC Sawgrass. He finished sixth in this event last year, showing he can navigate the course’s demanding layout and handle the pressure that builds over the closing holes.

Conners’ elite iron play regularly gives him quality scoring opportunities, which is essential on a track that severely punishes mistakes. With much of the betting attention centered on the bigger names at the top of the board, Conners’ odds remain longer than expected. At that number, the value is simply too appealing to ignore this week.

⛳️ Additional Players Championship long shot bet: Corey Conners top Canadian player (+230)

Corey Conners is a strong pick to finish as the top Canadian at The Players Championship thanks to his consistent ball striking and proven history at TPC Sawgrass. Conners has quietly produced solid results at this event, including a seventh-place finish in 2021 and a 13th-place showing in 2024, while averaging around a 22nd-place finish over his last five appearances. His elite iron play and accuracy off the tee fit perfectly with the demands of Sawgrass, a course that rewards precision over pure power. Among the Canadian contingent, Conners’ steady approach and reliable scoring give him the best chance to rise above the group this week.

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 🐎 Players Championship dark horse picks

Nicolai Hojgaard (+8000)

Nicolai Hojgaard enters The Players Championship as one of the most exciting young talents in the field and possesses the skill set to contend at TPC Sawgrass. The Danish star brings tremendous power off the tee, giving him the ability to attack scoring holes while still having the distance to recover when needed. Just as importantly, his iron play has improved significantly over the past year, providing the precision required on a course that severely punishes errant approaches.

Hojgaard has also proven he can compete against elite fields, earning wins and strong finishes on the European circuit before stepping into bigger PGA Tour events. With growing confidence and an aggressive style that produces birdie runs, he has the upside to climb the leaderboard quickly. If the putter heats up, Hojgaard has all the tools necessary to secure a signature win this weekend.

⛳️ Additional Players Championship long shot bet: Nicolai Hojgaard top Danish player (+140)

Nicolai Hojgaard is a strong pick to finish as the top Danish player at The Players Championship thanks to his combination of power, improving consistency, and high-end tournament pedigree. The 24-year-old has already proven he can compete against elite fields, highlighted by multiple European Tour victories and a win at the DP World Tour Championship. His aggressive driving and ability to generate birdie chances give him the scoring upside needed at TPC Sawgrass. Against fellow Danish contenders, Hojgaard’s ceiling is simply higher. If he finds early momentum with his irons and putter, he has the talent to separate himself and finish as Denmark’s top performer this week.

Aaron Rai (+10500)

Aaron Rai enters the week as an intriguing contender to win the The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Rai quietly finished T-14 in this event last year, proving he can navigate one of the most demanding courses on the PGA Tour. His game is built on accuracy and consistency, two traits that are critical at Sawgrass where precision off the tee and strong iron play often separate contenders from the rest of the field.

Rai is among the most accurate drivers on tour and excels at hitting fairways and greens, limiting the big mistakes that can derail rounds at this venue. He also ranks highly in approach play, consistently giving himself birdie opportunities. If the putter heats up for a few rounds, Rai has the steady ball-striking and patience needed to climb the leaderboard and ultimately contend for the biggest win of his career.

⛳️ Additional Players Championship long shot bet: Aaron Rai First Round Leader (+7000)

Aaron Rai is an intriguing pick to lead after the first round and potentially go on to win The Players Championship. Rai has built a reputation as a fast starter in tournaments, often putting himself near the top of leaderboards early with precise ball striking and elite accuracy off the tee. TPC Sawgrass rewards players who keep the ball in play and control their irons, two areas where Rai consistently excels. If he finds a rhythm with the putter early, he has the skill set to post a low number on Thursday. A strong opening round could give him the momentum needed to contend all weekend.

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3️⃣ Additional long shot outright winners:

• Justin Rose (+8000): Justin Rose has the experience, elite iron play, and proven success on demanding courses like TPC Sawgrass to navigate the volatility of The Players Championship and contend for the title.
• Brooks Koepka (+7000): Brooks Koepka has the elite ball-striking, major-championship mentality, and ability to rise on golf’s biggest stages needed to navigate the demanding layout at TPC Sawgrass and contend for the title at The Players Championship.
• Chris Gotterup (+4500): Chris Gotterup has the power off the tee and emerging confidence needed to take advantage of scoring opportunities at TPC Sawgrass, giving the rising star a chance to surprise the field at The Players Championship.

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⏰ Tee times for our picks:

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💡 How I'm handicapping The Players Championship

Scottie Scheffler does not appear to be on the same dominant run this year as he was during last season, which opens the door for several other contenders to make a serious push at the title. While Scheffler still enters all events he plays as the outright betting favorite, the gap between him and the rest of the field has narrowed compared to last year’s stretch of elite performances.

Because of that, we’re looking toward a few strong value plays from the Players Championship odds. Targeting golfers at longer odds gives us a chance to capitalize on a big plus-money ticket if one of those contenders rises to the occasion.

With scoring conditions capable of creating dramatic swings on the leaderboard, volatility becomes a major factor and often turns this event into a wide-open race. One hot stretch or one costly mistake can quickly shift momentum, which naturally opens the door for sleepers to make a serious weekend charge. Focusing solely on the shortest prices on the board isn’t always the most profitable approach.

Instead, I’m leaning into that unpredictability and targeting players with legitimate upside - golfers who possess strong ball-striking profiles, can consistently gain strokes tee-to-green, and have the potential to catch fire with the putter. When those elements come together, especially at longer odds, the value becomes extremely appealing and creates opportunities to cash a big plus-money ticket. 

🤑 More Players Championship bets

Our Dustin Saracini also loves Conners to perform this week in his Players Championship picks piece.

Our Esten McLaren breaks down his top first round leader predictions in his Players Championship first-round leader predictions piece.

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📜 The Players Championship betting history

Here are the recent outright winners of the THE PLAYERS Championship and their betting odds prior to Round 1:

Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com.

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⛳ The Players Championship tournament info 2026

• Where: Thursday, March 12 - Sunday, March 15
• When: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.)
• Field: 123
• Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+400 via BetRivers)
• Defending champion: Rory McIlroy
• Purse: $25 million
• FedEx Cup points: 750

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📊 The Players Championship odds

Here are the odds to win for everyone in the THE PLAYERS Championship field: