⚾ Athletics vs. Yankees Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 8)

The Athletics vs. Yankees win probability is heavily slanted, with one juggernaut team rising to start the season, while the pitching warts are surfacing for the other.

The Yankees are getting a 66% win probability due to their combination of stifling pitching and a thunder-filled offense, which has translated to an AL-leading plus-27 run differential. 

There's a massive probability gap between the Bronx Bombers and the underdog A's at the prediction market apps, surely because of the repeatedly battered pitching staff the visitors are rolling out tonight at Yankee Stadium. It'll be Luis Severino vs. Will Warren to start.

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🏆 Who will win Athletics vs. Yankees? Live MLB win probability

The surging Yankees are the heavy favorites in this market, though that wasn't always the case. The two sides were close when the market opened, and now after over $83,000 in trading volume, the Yankees have shifted from a 51% favorite on April 6 to now in a stronger position at 66%.

That makes sense given the Yankees' recent steamrolling to start the season. They're 8-2 across the AL East-leading club's first 10 games, which includes winning five of their last six contests and the opening clash of this series against the A's last night.

Meanwhile, the underdog A's opened with a 49% win probability before dropping to 35%. Their 3-7 mark to begin the season is largely due to an expected weakness: pitching. The A's boast plenty of young offensive talent that brings thump, but their pitching staff has posted MLB's third-worst ERA early (5.52), which comes after sitting fourth-worst last year.

That's ultimately what's driving the quick upward spike in win probability for the Yankees ahead of this clash. Especially with Severino on the mound after allowing six earned runs across 8 1/3 innings so far (6.48 ERA).

My prediction: Yankees win. The A's possess the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Yankees, just as they did last night while leading 3-1 until New York put up four runs in the eighth inning. The problem tonight will be the visitor's bullpen again, as A's relievers have put up a 5.48 ERA (22nd). Severino's command early could quickly lead to a hole as well after he walked five batters in his last outing.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Athletics vs. Yankees?

Aaron Judge is getting the highest probability to go deep at 24% in a market that's received nearly $35,000 in trading so far, with his sizzling teammate Giancarlo Stanton not far behind at 19%. Meanwhile, the A's hitters sitting closest to the top of the market are Nick Kurtz at 17% and Shea Langeliers at 16%.

They're all playing in the homer factory that is Yankee Stadium, which generated 19% more home runs on average last year, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. When we combine that homer-friendly venue with two pitchers who are prone to giving up loud contact, there's the makings of a home run derby.

Warren is coming off a season when his average exit velocity of 91 mph sat in the bottom 7% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant, and Severino rests in the same area currently with his 60% hard-hit rate allowed. So expect the home run probabilities to climb a little more ahead of first pitch, particularly those tied to the Yankees' sluggers.

My prediction: Jazz Chisholm Jr. to hit a home run. The left-handed hitting Chisholm posted an .843 OPS last year against righties like Severino, and a .733 mark when facing a southpaw. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Andrew Brennan.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Athletics vs. Yankees?

With nearly $1,500 in trading volume, the chances of a run in the first inning have shot up from an opening percentage of 37.3% to 47%. It's been a gradual climb, with the market sitting around 43% for much of last night, and then rising to as high as 50% early this morning.

It's a spike that makes sense given both the offensive firepower on both sides, and the vulnerability of Severino ahead of an unideal matchup for a starter prone to allowing lasers. He's managed to escape the first inning during both of his starts thus far without giving up a run, though the caliber of offense Severino is seeking to tame now is much different.

So far, five of the Yankees' 10 games have featured a run in the first inning, while the A's are sitting at four.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. Severino's wayward command translates to early traffic, and a quick lead for the Yankees. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NFRI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Athletics vs. Yankees win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Athletics vs. Yankees

• Date: Wednesday, April 8
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (New York)
• TV: Prime
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Athletics starter: Luis Severino (0-1, 6.48 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Will Warren (1-0, 2.70 ERA)