⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Saturday, April 4
Starting this week, all MLB teams that began their seasons on the road got to enjoy Opening Days in their home stadiums. That provides us with a different outlook than we saw last week, but also provides other interesting ways to capitalize and profit.
My MLB player props today include an even blend of pitcher and batter props. I cover veteran players in Corey Seager and Tyler Glasnow to youngsters Munetaka Murakami and Mick Abel, with all four player props combining to form a parlay with a juicy +752 payout.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 4
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow to record a win (-140 via bet365) | 1u β 0.71u | Dodgers batters should provide plenty of run support against Jake Irvin |
| Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+129 via Caesars) | 1u β 1.29u | Murakami has at least one hit in six of seven games to start his career |
| Corey Seager Over 0.5 runs (-108 via DraftKings) | 1u β 0.93u | Texas is one of three AL teams with 35 runs scored thus far |
| Mick Abel Under 4.5 strikeouts (-131 via DraftKings) | 1u β 0.76u | Cold Minnesota weather should aid this Under |
Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 3.69 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Tyler Glasnow to record a win (-140)
No matter which Dodgers pitcher was opposing Nationals righty Jake Irvin today, I was always going to look long and hard into their odds of recording a win.
Irvin has allowed a troubling .304/.350/.570 slash line in 92 career at-bats against opposing Dodgers hitters. And three of L.A.βs regulars, Teoscar Hernandez, Shohei Ohtani, and Will Smith, all have OPSs of .871 or better against the hurler.
Tyler Glasnow earned a no-decision despite making a quality start in his first outing, and backing him to earn the win is a great way to mitigate L.A.'s steep -295 moneyline odds.
📡 SBR Edge: All they do is win
Tyler Glasnow recorded just one win in seven road starts last year, but the Dodgers won each of his final 10 starts last season, including the playoffs.
I'm also backing Glasnow's teammate in my best home run predictions today.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+129)
White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami recorded a hit in each of his first five games of the season and drove in at least one run in four games in that span.
Murakami already ranks among the leagueβs best hitters in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. And though he has yet to do any damage against left-handed pitchers, Blue Jays southpaw Eric Lauer allowed a higher batting average to left-handed hitters than righties last season.
I'm not expecting Murakami to go yard again, like he did when he homered three times in his first three career games, making him the fourth player in MLB history to accomplish that feat. But he has plenty of other ways to cash this Over, especially if he can snap a three-game streak with multiple strikeouts.
Corey Seager Over 0.5 runs (-108)
Corey Seager began the season by reaching base in 11 of his 24 plate appearances. While he βonlyβ reached base once in four plate appearances in his six games, that one time was an eighth-inning solo home run off of Orioles righty Albert Suarez.
The Rangers rank among the AL's best offenses, as one of three teams with 35 or more runs scored. This is everyone's first time facing Cincinnati's No. 4 prospect, Rhett Lowder, who ranks in the bottom 54th percentile in chase percentage, barrel rate, and ground ball rate thus far.
That has me loving Seager's chances of scoring at least one run (he ranks second on the team with six), and we're getting a great price at DraftKings compared to the high end of the market with -115 odds (carrying a 53.49% implied probability).
Mick Abel Under 4.5 strikeouts (-131)
On what is expected to be a frigid night in Minneapolis, I am lowering expectations for Twins righty Mick Abel, with the most value coming via his strikeout prop.
Abel has made just one appearance this early in the season in his young career, and he lasted just 3 1/3 innings while walking four batters. Four of his 10 outs recorded came via strikeout, but tonight he faces a Rays lineup that has struck out at the sixth-lowest rate in the majors to this point.
Early returns suggest Abel is much better as a warm-weather pitcher, as he has a 7.9 K/9 rate in the first half of the season, and a much higher 11.6 K/9 rate in the second half.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
bet365 was our primary sportsbook right off the bat for this MLB parlay, as it was one of our best sports betting sites offering odds for Tyler Glasnow to earn the victory in his start. I'd much prefer Caesars' +129 odds for Munetaka Murakami to go Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs instead of these steep -190 odds for a lower O/U, but I am willing to pay up in this case since it's part of a four-leg parlay.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Tyler Glasnow to record a win (-140)
- Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-190)
- Corey Seager Over 0.5 runs (-115)
- Mick Abel Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135)
Best odds: +752 via bet365 (.25u -> 1.88u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-9 | +6.34 units β | +36.3% β |
| Player props | 9-7 | +6.53 units β | +48.4% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 4)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Ideally, I prefer to identify MLB player props with more plus-money offerings, as those are in abundance no matter how many games are on the day's slate.
I'm already getting the most favorable odds with Murakami's prop by backing his alternate total of 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs instead of 0.5, and I wouldn't put anyone off wagering on the Under of 3.5 strikeouts for Abel at a more lucrative +120 odds at bet365. But at the end of the day, it's all about being profitable, and a max profit of 3.69 units while laying 4.0 units gives us plenty of opportunities to do so.
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