⚾ MLB Player Props & Parlay Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Wednesday, April 8
I'm back with a quartet of strikeout bets for my MLB player props today, and each of them is trading at plus money.
I'm once again featuring the game of the day - the World Series rematch between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays, which Dustin Saracini also featured in his best NRFI bets today - in these MLB picks, and I'm betting on two other AL East teams to jump all over the starting pitchers they're facing.
Then, I'm once again taking the Over on a strikeout total of 3.5, because of course I am.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 8
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Drohan Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110 via bet365) | 1u β 2.1u | Red Sox have been much better against lefties this year |
| Dylan Cease Under 6.5 strikeouts (+128 via FanDuel) | 1u β 2.28u | Dodgers have seventh-best K rate |
| Colin Rea Over 3.5 strikeouts (+120 via DraftKings) | 1u β 2.2u | Rea has four Ks in each of relief appearances |
| Luis Severino Under 4.5 strikeouts (+125 via bet365) | 1u β 2.25u | Unlikely to last long vs. former team |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 4.83 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Dylan Cease Under 6.5 strikeouts (+128)
I took the Under on Dylan Cease in his last game against the Chicago White Sox, and it cashed despite being awfully sweaty. This one could be similar, as Cease has the goods to strike out even the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers in bunches.
However, I'm going to trust the projections on this one, which have Cease finishing with right around six strikeouts. Based on that number, we're getting upward of 40% +EV on this. I'd play this Under to odds as short as -110, with only one of our best sports betting sites dropping this price that far as of noon ET.
📡 SBR Edge: Dodgers are on another level
Kevin Gausman had been unhittable until he ran into the Dodgers last night, who have been absurd at the plate with a team average of .292. With the way Cease gets into deep counts, he may not make it through five today.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Colin Rea Over 3.5 strikeouts (+120)
Colin Rea will get the start for the Chicago Cubs today after working two games out of the bullpen in extended relief spots. He's never been known for his strikeout stuff, but this is a super low total at plus money, so you know I had to bet it.
The data backs this one up, as Rea is projected for right around 4.5 strikeouts. However, this is a Tampa Bay Rays team that rarely strikes out, so I wouldn't play this if the odds shorten beyond even money. As it stands, most of our best sports betting apps are still hovering around +110, so you have plenty of options. Through these +120 odds, we're getting nearly 50% +EV.
Luis Severino Under 4.5 strikeouts (+125)
Luis Severino is projected to have one of the worst days of any starter today. I featured a New York Yankees hitter in my home run predictions today, and I'm doubling down on Severino's struggles with this bet.
The right-hander is projected to finish with less than four punchouts, which makes this bet better than 50% +EV. Only Drohan, Miles Mikolas, and Michael Lorenzen are expected to have worse days in terms of fantasy baseball, so I'm fading Severino in a big way here.
Once again, I'd play this one to even money, and with a couple of the sites offering best sportsbook promos already at -110 or shorter, you may need to act quickly.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining my four strikeout props at FanDuel, which has some of the best numbers on a few players but, more importantly, offers everyone. The latter is lacking at other sportsbooks. The implied probability of these odds is 7.36%, so I've increased my wager from my usual 0.08 to 0.2.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Shane Drohan Under 4.5 strikeouts (-172)
- Dylan Cease Under 6.5 strikeouts (+112)
- Colin Rea Over 3.5 strikeouts (+114)
- Luis Severino Under 4.5 strikeouts (-112)
Best odds: +1258 via FanDuel (0.2u -> 2.72u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-69 | -12.41 units β | -28.2% β |
| Strikeouts | 10-16 | -6.02 units β | -24.3% β |
| Parlays | 1-15 | -0.18 units β | -12.5% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 8)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV based on more than one projection model. I'm still tinkering with which projection models I want to use for this season, but I have two that are my most trustworthy now.
If a bet is verified by only one projection model, is less than 20% +EV, or is in a market I'm less comfortable betting a full unit on, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units.
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