⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Sunday, April 19

Several of Major League Baseball’s most home run prone pitchers toe the rubber today, and that, along with ballpark factors like the slugfest that should ensue at Coors Field make up the theme of my home run predictions today.

Three different Los Angeles Dodgers sluggers have taken advantage of the altitude in Denver and homered in the series against the Colorado Rockies, but I am backing a new member of their lineup to go deep today. In addition, I am doubling up with MLB home run picks from the interleague tilt between the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros, in a game between two starting pitchers who have struggled to keep the ball in the yard.

⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 19

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 5.25 units

💣 Best home run prediction today

William Contreras to hit a home run (+630)

William Contreras extended his hitting streak to 13 games yesterday, though his multi-game hit streak was snapped in the series opener. In those first 11 games which culminated in three straight multi-hit performances, Contreras was reaching base at a .440 clip.

Contreras is just 1-for-5 lifetime against Eury Perez, but the Marlins righty is one of five qualified pitchers with a HR/9 rate of 1.80 or worse. Perez ranks in the seventh percentile in barrels and the 26th percentile in ground ball rate, giving Contreras an excellent chance to hit his second home run this month.

🔥 More home run picks today

Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+325)

Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore’s splits against left-handed batters versus righties are so egregious that Yordan Alvarez becomes an automatic addition to our home run portfolio.

Lefties are slashing .429/.455/.857 and have hit three home runs in just 21 at-bats against Liberatore, while he has held righties to a more respectable .254/.324/.365 slash line.

Alvarez exceeded his home run total from last year (six in 48 games) after hitting his seventh in his 19th game. He ranks in the 95th percentile in barrels and the 100th percentile in xSLG, and that gives him a fantastic chance to homer off a pitcher with the second-highest HR/9 rate this season among qualified pitchers (2.14).

JJ Wetherholt to hit a home run (+750)

Among qualified pitchers, Astros righty Mike Burrows is one of three with a HR/9 rate higher than 2.0, as his 2.05 rate was only better than Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore and Cubs righty Jameson Taillon.

Burrows has allowed four of his five home runs to left-handed batters (in just three more at-bats), which is a big reason for his eye-popping .694 slugging percentage and 1.157 OPS allowed in that split.

That is why I am foregoing Jordan Walker and his NL-leading eight home runs entering the weekend in favor of rookie JJ Wetherholt, the only other Cardinals player with at least three home runs to begin the series. 

Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+390)

Rockies righty Michael Lorenzen has pitched 8 2/3 innings spanning two starts at Coors Field this year. In that span, he has allowed a whopping 19 hits and 10 earned runs with two home runs.

Three of Lorenzen’s four home runs allowed this year have come to left-handed batters (in 14 fewer at-bats than righties), with lefties slugging a ridiculous .800 in that split. Freddie Freeman is amid a 10-game home run drought, but he had multi-hit games (with at least one extra-base hit) in four of the previous five, and his 33.8% fly ball rate is on pace to be the second-highest of his career.

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

With this four-leg home run parlay, I am mostly targeting pitchers with inflated HR/9 rates, as three of the opposing pitchers in this parlay ranked among the five-worst qualified pitchers in that metric entering the weekend. While Michael Lorenzen doesn't fit that narrative, he is still pitching in Coors Field and facing a Dodgers lineup with more home runs hit (37) than any other team in the majors.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

With the exception of JJ Wetherholt, my other three home run picks are sluggers that have some of the shortest odds from their respective teams to go yard. 

Like always, I didn't allocate more than 0.25 units of my bankroll to any individual home run wager. And while I also try not to double up on the same game (and definitely try not to pick two sluggers from the same team on the same day), the Cardinals-Astros O/U is one of five games with an O/U of 8.5 on the 15-game slate, thus making it a more enticing interleague matchup to attack from a home run prop perspective.