⚾ Best Home Run Predictions & Parlay Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, April 3
After a quiet day on the MLB schedule yesterday - who decided it was a good idea to schedule one game in the afternoon and the other two at 9:40 p.m. ET? - we're back with a jam-packed Friday of baseball action.
I have a ton of strikeout props, which you can find on X and in my player props today article, and three home run predictions today. There are potential massive profits to be made, so let's get right into it.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 3
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe home run (+520 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 2.05u | Off to a hot start with three home runs already |
| Nick Kurtz home run (+300 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 1.32u | Still in search of his first homer of the year |
| Juan Soto home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.33u β 1.82u | Has a hit in every game this year, and HRs will soon follow |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.19 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+520)
Brandon Lowe is up to three homers in his first five games with the Pittsburgh Pirates after joining them this offseason. Now he and the Pirates have their home opener today against the Baltimore Orioles, and the stadium will be buzzing with the debut of Konnor Griffin.
Lowe has tormented the Orioles during his career, with 20 homers in 82 games. He's projected to add to that total today, and we're getting nearly 60% +EV through this very enticing price. I'd play this all the way down to +360.
📡 SBR Edge: Lowe should make loud return to AL East
Lowe spent the first eight years of his MLB career with the Tampa Bay Rays, so he's very familiar with the Orioles. With all of the focus on Griffin, Lowe could fly under the radar and remind his old AL East rival of why he's so dangerous at the plate.
π₯ More home run picks today
Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+300)
I nearly bet this earlier this morning, but I couldn't quite find a price I liked enough to do so. I waited for something like this to pop up, and we've got it on Friday afternoon.
Nick Kurtz owns the second-best home run projection today, and we're getting just better than 20% +EV on this bet through these +300 odds. The Athletics slugger is off to a horrible start, but I expect him to right the ship in the home opener.
Of Kurtz's 36 homers last year, 22 came at home in essentially an even split of games. I've bet on Kurtz too many times this season to not be invested in his first homer. Let's cash today.
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+450)
Juan Soto has been killing me to start the season. I've repeatedly bet on him to hit a home run to no avail, and the day I didn't bet on him (I had the day-off and decided to go bet-free, or else I probably would have done so again), he goes yard. Will today be the day we finally break the curse?
The numbers seem to think so, at least, as Soto owns one of the best home run projections of any player today. Based on it and these +450 odds, we're getting a whopping 50% +EV on this bet. I'd play this to odds as short as +330, and DraftKings is already closing in on that number with a +334 price, so act quickly before the rest of our best sports betting sites inch closer to that number, too.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my three home run bets together with Kyle Schwarber, who has the best home run projection today, and I'm putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put roughly 0.5 units on them and make a small fortune, but these +28541 odds represent just a 0.35% implied probability that this hits.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Brandon Lowe (+500)
- Juan Soto (+350)
- Kyle Schwarber (+172)
- Nick Kurtz (+290)
Best odds: +28541 via FanDuel (0.08u -> 22.91u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-48 | -7.59 units β | -27.2% β |
| Home run picks | 3-21 | -2.91 units β | -39.3% β |
| Parlays | 1-11 | +0.34 units β | +35.9% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on my of home run bets that feature a player with a home run projection of 0.3 or better, and on odds that provide us with 30% +EV or better.
If the player's projection is less than 0.3 but the EV is sky-high, or if the projection is very high while the EV isn't especially enticing, I will limit my wager to $25, or 0.2 units.
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