⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, April 4
Washington Nationals righty Jake Irvin toes the rubber today, which has me excited to make my best home run predictions today.
No pitcher had a worse HR/9 rate in the majors last year than Irvin, so fading him would seem like a wise option for your MLB home run picks. Irvin allowed two home runs in his first start of the season, and now Teoscar Hernandez is next to tee off on the hurler.
Elsewhere, Kyle Schwarber looks to build upon his impressive career numbers at Coors Field, while a visiting slugger aims to take advantage of more home runs friendly confines at Kauffman Stadium.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 4
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | .25u → 1.19u | No pitcher allowed more home runs per nine innings than Jake Irvin last year |
| Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+450 via bet365) | .25u → 1.13u | Shane Baz also ranked among the sixth-worst pitchers in allowing home runs |
| Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+600 via bet365) | .25u → 1.5u | Yelich has taken Seth Lugo deep twice in his career |
| Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+196 via FanDuel) | .25u → .49u | One of the best home run hitters should take advantage of the best home run ballpark |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.31 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+475)
The Dodgers belted 12 home runs in six games against the Nationals last year, and they were one of three NL teams against which Los Angeles had a team OPS of .825 or better.
Teoscar Hernandez has a 1.203 OPS in 13 career at-bats against Jake Irvin, with three of his four hits going for extra bases, and two leaving the yard. Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith are the only other two Dodgers with OPSs of .871 or better against Irvin (min. 10 ABs), but Hernandez’s home run odds are more appealing.
📡 SBR Edge: A model of consistency
Hernandez has hit at least 25 home runs in each of the last five seasons, and his 27.7% fly ball rate last season was his second-highest in that span.
I'm also backing Hernandez's teammate in my MLB player props today.
🔥 More home run picks today
Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+450)
Shane Baz had the sixth-highest home run rate allowed last year (1.41 home runs per nine innings). To put that into perspective, he had even worse HR/9 rates in his first two years in the big leagues, allowing 2.0 and 1.7, respectively, in 2021 and 2022.
While Baz didn’t allow a home run in his first start, he was still tagged for four earned runs, and half of the balls put in play were fly balls.
Brandon Lowe is on pace for his best GB/FB ratio of the past six seasons, and he is familiar with Baz’s arsenal as his former Rays teammate.
Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+600)
Kauffman Stadium moved in its outfield walls nine to 10 feet and lowered them by 8.5 feet, which means more balls should fly out of the yard there this year.
Brewers slugger Christian Yelich was always a prime candidate to go yard against Seth Lugo, something he has done twice in 17 at-bats. While Yelich also has five strikeouts against the righty in that small sample size, he has also drawn two walks, which suggests he sees the ball well out of Lugo’s hands more often than not.
This wager is limited to the second game of the doubleheader when Lugo starts, as yesterday's game between the Brewers and Royals was rained out.
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+196)
These home run props would not be complete if I didn’t take advantage of the most home run-happy ballpark in the majors, Coors Field.
Kyle Schwarber faces Rockies southpaw Jose Quintana, but the slugger doesn’t shy away from lefty versus lefty matchups. Schwarber had better slash line numbers in every category against southpaws than right-handed pitchers last year, leading to an OPS 60 points better in that split.
He entered this series with a .946 OPS and eight home runs in 21 career games (20 starts) at Coors Field, and is a great addition to today’s home run portfolio.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
While a four-leg parlay of this magnitude is always difficult to cash, I'm giving myself a better chance by swapping one Dodger for another and inserting Shohei Ohtani into this parlay, despite Teoscar Hernandez being my top individual wager. Ohtani blasted his first home run of the season today, and I like the value his +165 odds offer in this parlay among several of the sport's other top home run hitters. bet365 provides the best odds for all but Schwarber, providing us a juicy payout if this cashes.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+165)
- Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+450)
- Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+600)
- Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+185)
Best odds: +28977 via bet365 (.1u -> 28.98u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-9 | +6.34 units ✅ | +36.3% ✅ |
| Player prop picks | 9-7 | +6.53 units ✅ | +48.4% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Rarely will I ever put more than 0.25 units on any individual player's home run props, as I prefer to get more aggressive with my bankroll with more coin-flip types of wagers like totals or run lines. Among my top four hitters today, Kyle Schwarber is the only one I'd consider risking more on, given that he is batting in the best park for long balls today. But I will stay consistent with my 0.25 units, and will ensure a profitable day if any of my other three plays cash.
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