⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, April 6
The game of the day on Monday is a World Series rematch between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays, and two of my home run predictions today come from that showdown. It's obviously still very early in the season, but Rogers Centre is once again profiling as one of the best hitters parks in baseball.
We then target two home run props that don't really involve a ballpark advantage at all, but they feature two hitters who can smash the ball out of any stadium.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 6
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman home run (+470 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 1.88u | Surface level stats don't match incredible batted-ball data |
| George Springer home run (+511 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 2.02u | World Series rematch should light a fire under him |
| Kerry Carpenter home run (+429 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 1.75u | Homers in two straight games after very slow start |
| Dominic Canzone home run (+560 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 2.18u | Quietly has some of the best batted-ball data in MLB |
Total wagered: 1.33 units | Max profit: 6.5 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+470)
Freddie Freeman is off to a strong start this season, even if his .237/.275/.474 slash line doesn't indicate so. He's barely striking out, he's squaring-up the ball at an elite rate, and he's registering plenty of hard contact. He's due for some positive regression, and it could come in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.
Based on Freeman's home run projection today against Max Scherzer - who's had homer issues for years now - we're getting better than 35% +EV on this bet. I'd play it to odds as short as +395, and none of our best sports betting sites are close to that price yet.
📡 SBR Edge: World Series rematch could feature fireworks
We have home run bets on Freeman and George Springer, as each have promising projections today, and they're being priced behind the true favorites in this matchup.
π₯ More home run picks today
Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+429)
Kerry Carpenter was off to a brutal start to the season before a home series against the St. Louis Cardinals. He went 5-for-9 with two bombs in the three-game set, and now his Detroit Tigers head to Minnesota to take on the AL Central-rival Twins.
Target Field hasn't been friendly to hitters so far this season, but it's played more neutral over the last three years. I'm not sure that really matters for Carpenter, since he doesn't exactly hit wall-scrapers. He ranks right around the 80th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Based on his projection today, we're getting better than 27% +EV on this bet. I'd play it to odds as short as +395, and FanDuel is already at +360, so act quickly.
Dominic Canzone to hit a home run (+560)
I featured Dominic Canzone in my 10 breakout MLB players to watch this season back in February, and he hasn't disappointed so far. The Seattle Mariners lefty owns a .965 OPS and two home runs over 19 at-bats, and his batted-ball data is absurd.
He's in the 99th percentile in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and he owns a 93rd percentile average exit velocity and 92nd percentile hard-hit rate.
Canzone profiles as a risky but high-upside home run bet today. Sure, he's facing Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom in the cavernous Globe Life Field, but we're also getting better than 30% +EV on this bet. I'd play this to odds as short as +480.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my four home run bets together and I'm putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put more money on them and make a small fortune, but these +102885 odds represent just a 0.10% implied probability that this hits.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Freddie Freeman (+429)
- George Springer (+511)
- Kerry Carpenter (+429)
- Dominic Canzone (+528)
Best odds: +102885 via DraftKings (0.08u -> 82.39u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-56 | -10.87 units β | -32.9% β |
| Home run picks | 3-24 | -3.90 units β | -46.5% β |
| Parlays | 1-13 | +0.18 units β | +16.5% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on my of home run bets that feature a player with at least one home run projection of 0.3 or better, and on odds that provide us with 25% +EV or better.
I've begun to add a second projection model into my process, and I'll continue to tinker with that as the season progresses. The more information you have, the better, but you also don't want to get buried in numbers and forget what you know about the sport. That's something I'm still working through even now after years of finding success with baseball betting.
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