MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Monday, July 20
A new week of dinger hunting begins in my home run predictions today, and there are some tasty pitching matchups immediately.
That includes white-hot Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams leading off my MLB home run picks while facing the forever homer-friendly Rockies' pitching staff in the launchpad of Coors Field.
Matt Olson and Jackson Chourio get similarly eye-catching opportunities too against starters who have been watching a whole lot of missiles head in the other direction.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 20
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams home run (+411 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.82u | Scorching over the past two weeks, with a 1.076 OPS. |
| Matt Olson home run (+323 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.65u | JP Sears is a homer factory and gave up 30 last year. |
| Jackson Chourio home run (+424 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.85u | Poised to take advantage of a struggling Freddy Peralta. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.32 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: CJ Abrams (+411)
Abrams has already set a career single-season home run high after clubbing 21, and it's July 20.
Now he gets a prime opportunity to continue his power surge after posting a 1.049 OPS across the past week. He'll face Kyle Freeland, whose ERA is a monstrous 7.36, largely due to an average exit velocity and barrel rate that sit in the 10th percentile or worse.
Freeland leans on a cutter as one of his main secondary pitches, throwing it 21.3% of the time. It's an offering Abrams has been nailing en route to a .407 batting average and 1.047 OPS.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Slugging anytime, anywhere
Abrams is enjoying a breakout season overall. But he's been especially effective on the road while posting a .980 OPS, as opposed to a .767 at home.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+323)
JP Sears' homer generosity is truly special, as he gave up 30 dingers last season (tied for the seventh-most), which came after his 28 surrendered the campaign prior and 34 in 2023.
He's only made two starts this year, but that hasn't stopped him from allowing four long balls with an HR/9 of 1.8.
Olson doesn't struggle against lefties while posting an .829 OPS. Sears will be relying heavily on his fastball to get him out, as he throws it 36% of the time to lefties. That's a recipe for disaster against a masher who's put up a 65.8% hard-hit rate against heaters, according to Baseball Savant, the fifth-best MLB-wide.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB picks for Monday
Our Mike Spector is also breaking down one of the marquee matchups of the day in his Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction.
Home run pick: Jackson Chourio home run (+424)
Jackson Chourio has been limping along lately, though given the time off for the All-Star break, he's not far removed from a smouldering month of June with a 1.013 OPS.
Freddy Peralta can give him a ticket back to dinger town. Peralta has been spiraling after being brought in to boost the Mets' pitching. But his issues have really been peaking across three July starts. Peralta has registered a .927 OPS allowed during that period.
Peralta is also far worse away from Citi Field, as he's recorded a .713 OPS given up and 4.08 ERA at home versus an .844 and 5.58 on the road. He throws his changeup 21.2% of the time as well, a pitch Chourio is registering a .346 batting average against.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- CJ Abrams home run (+411)
- Matt Olson home run (+323)
- Jackson Chourio home run (+424)
Best odds: +11226 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.2u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-174-2 | -0.38 units β | -0.4% β |
| Home run picks | 34-114-0 | -0.41 units β | -0.01% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-42 | +0.60 units β | +0.68% β |
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