Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Monday, July 20
🤑 Best NRFI Bets Today for Monday (July 20)
We're looking to capitalize on some beautiful NRFI combinations of top-tier pitching and bottom-tier offenses. That leads to Pirates vs. Yankees and Reds vs. Mariners being featured in my best NRFI bets today.
βΎ Best NRFI bets today: July 20
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ NRFI pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates vs. Yankees NRFI (-120 via FanDuel) | 1u β 0.83u | Braxton Ashcraft's curveball is borderline unhittable. |
| Reds vs. Mariners NRFI (-140 via FanDuel) | 1.5u β 1.1u | Seattle's offense is producing the worst OPS this month. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.33 units
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π° Best NRFI bet today
Pirates vs. Yankees NRFI (-120) - 7:05 p.m. ET
- Braxton Ashcraft (3.49) vs. Ryan Weathers (4.15)
- NRFI records: Pirates (50-50) vs. Yankees (45-54)
Among all curveballs leaguewide, Ashcraft's batting average against, slugging against, whiff rate, and strikeout percentage on his offering sit among the top five.
Ashcraft can more than do this part here, especially against a scuffling Yankees lineup with a .706 OPS in July (20th). On the other side, the Yankees' Ryan Weathers can do his share of the lifting through a K/9 that's risen from 8.7 last year to 10.1 now.
Weathers boasts an imposing changeup. Brandon Lowe, one of the Pirates' primary offensive contributors, is putting up just a .214 batting average against that pitch.
💣️ More MLB player props
Looking for more plays? Look no further than my best home run predictions today and Mike Spector's Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction.
π₯ More NRFI picks today
Reds vs. Mariners NRFI (-140) - 8:40 p.m. ET
- Andrew Abbott (4.11) vs. George Kirby (3.76)
- NRFI records: Reds (48-50) vs. Mariners (52-48)
The Mariners remain the ideal NRFI target due to their perfect blend of imposing pitching and a feeble offense.
The latter has applied all season, and especially lately with the Mariners' league-worst .608 OPS during July. The bewildering freefall of Cal Raleigh continues, with his hard-hit rate going from 49.6% last year to 31.8% now, and his expected batting average of .176 is the second-worst leaguewide.
But on the other side, George Kirby comes with excellent command, and opposing hitters are slugging just .341 against his most-used pitch, a sweeper the righty throws 30.2% of the time.
Meanwhile, Andrew Abbott has put up a 3.21 ERA on the road, far better than his 5.05 in the hitter's haven that is Great American Ballpark, and no venue suppresses runs more than T-Mobile Park.
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-174-2 | -0.38 units β | -0.4% β |
| NRFI picks | 6-0-0 | +5.93 units β | 91.2% β |
π‘ How I'm betting NRFI picks today (July 20)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
A NRFI (No Run First Inning) bet carries high variance, meaning success requires a disciplined, daily dive into the data. Before placing a wager, run through a strict checklist: analyze how the starting pitcher matches up against the top three hitters in the lineup, track underlying metrics like strikeout rates (K%) and expected batting averages (xBA), and review recent team-specific first-inning scoring trends. Because a single mistake or lucky hit can ruin the bet instantly, always use this daily routine to guide your wagers and scale your unit sizing accordingly to protect your bankroll.
β NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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