Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, July 20
Cristopher Sanchez takes the mound at Citizens Bank Park for the first time since the All-Star Game, and he leads the Philadelphia Phillies into a series opener that’s a possible NL playoff preview against the Los Angeles Dodgers. My Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction backs Philadelphia behind a strong outing from one of the top NL Cy Young Award candidates.
Opposing Sanchez is Emmet Sheehan, and the Phillies are -135 betting favorites with first pitch set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). I am fading Sheehan’s strikeout total and am backing Trea Turner to go deep as a value play with the last of my MLB picks.
⚾ Dodgers vs. Phillies picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Phillies ML (-134 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.75u | The Phillies are 9-2 in Sanchez's 11 home starts |
| Emmet Sheehan Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 via bet365) | 1u → 1.05u | I'm selling high on Sheehan after his seven-strikeout performance in his last start |
| Trea Turner to hit a home run (+556 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.39u | Turner has hit nine of his 12 home runs at Citizens Bank Park |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.19 units
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🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Phillies?
Los Angeles got into Philadelphia in the early morning hours after last night’s doubleheader, so I’m backing the fresher Phillies behind their ace in the series opener.
Score prediction: Phillies 6, Dodgers 4
💰 Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction & best bet
Phillies ML (-134)
Cristopher Sanchez at home has been one of the surest things in baseball this season. The Phillies are 9-2 in his 11 home starts, while the lefty has pitched to a minuscule 0.86 ERA and .188 OBA at Citizens Bank Park.
Sanchez has been awfully tough on left-handed batters this season, limiting them to a .137/.151/.177 slash line in 124 combined at-bats. That should do wonders for containing several of Los Angeles’ most feared batters, like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy, who are a combined 7-for-35 against Sanchez.
📡 SBR Edge: Hard luck losers
In Philadelphia's only two losses in Sanchez's home starts, it scored just one total run, while only allowing four itself over the two contests.
🔥 Best Dodgers vs. Phillies player prop bet
Emmet Sheehan Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto eased several concerns of overuse from the Dodgers bullpen in yesterday’s doubleheader with his 102-pitch complete game. Thus, one shouldn’t expect the need for an extended outing from Sheehan, which lowers his ceiling for strikeouts.
Sheehan faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 16th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since June 15. Philadelphia is a slightly worse 18th in that metric in just home games in that same time frame, but have a path to knock out Sheehan early thanks to its top-5 wOBA, wRC+, and OPS as well.
Sheehan is coming off one of his six outings of seven-plus strikeouts in his previous start, but it also took tying a season-high 101 pitches to reach that mark. Having not pitched in eight days, I don’t expect as sharp of an outing after a long layoff.
🤑 More MLB props for Monday
Our Sean Tomlinson has dug up some dinger picks in his best home run predictions today.
💣 Dodgers vs. Phillies home run prediction
Trea Turner to hit a home run (+556)
From June 15 to yesterday, Philadelphia had MLB’s best ISO (.235) and HR/FB rate (18.9%) against right-handed pitchers in home games. Trea Turner alone ranked 32nd in that split with a .394 ISO. He also did not compromise any of his slash line numbers despite being a much more free swinger (2.9% walk rate), as he slashed .364/.400/.758.
Turner has been elevating the ball much more over the last month, with a 40.7% fly ball rate to go with his above average 40.7% hard-hit rate. He faces Sheehan, who has allowed eight home runs in his last five road starts, with six of his 15 home runs allowed coming against right-handed batters.
🚀 Dodgers vs. Phillies same-game parlay
All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in helping the Phillies achieve a win. I'm swapping my Turner home run play for a more conservative play on him combining for at least two hits, runs, or RBI, which should be easy given his blistering 1.417 OPS over the last seven days.
💵 Dodgers vs. Phillies SGP picks
- Phillies ML (-143)
- Emmet Sheehan Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105)
- Trea Turner Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120)
Best odds: +539 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.54u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 190-297-1 | +43.63 units ✅ | +14.2% ✅ |
| Game picks | 75-56-1 | +12.43 units ✅ | +7.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 115-241 | +31.20 units ✅ | +17.8% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Dodgers vs. Phillies: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
With my Phillies moneyline wager, I am bucking the trend that the Dodgers are 4-0 SU as underdogs this season. But that is the respect I'm giving Cristopher Sanchez when pitching at home, and Philadelphia has a plus-35 run differential in his last seven outings at Citizens Bank Park.
From a home run perspective, I definitely wanted to back someone from the Phillies given that Sanchez ranks 16th among qualified pitchers with a 0.85 HR/9 rate. The MLB leader in home runs, Kyle Schwarber, has 33.44% implied odds as his best through the +199 price at DraftKings, so I preferred Turner's value more.
📊 Live Dodgers vs. Phillies odds
The general public seems keen on Los Angeles as rare underdogs, as attracting 41% of the early wagers has been enough to move the line as much as seven cents in its favor at the MLB best MLB betting sites.
There has been some reverse line movement on the total, as 60% of the early wagers are in support of the Under, yet the O/U has ticked up from an opening number of 8 to 8.5 at several best sports betting sites. That suggests sharp money is making up a great percentage of the 40% of the minority wagers on the Over.
📈 Dodgers vs. Phillies betting trends
| Dodgers | Statistic | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| 63-37 | W-L record | 55-45 |
| 44-56 | Run line record | 37-63 |
| 46-54 | O/U record | 42-56-2 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 3.49 | Team ERA | 4.21 |
| .260 | Team batting avg. | .236 |
| .772 | OPS | .701 |
🚑 Dodgers vs. Phillies injuries
📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Phillies
- Date: Monday, July 20
- First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- TV: ESPN
- Dodgers starter: Emmet Sheehan (4-6, 4.81)
- Phillies starter: Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.62)
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