MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Sunday, July 26)
Chicago Cubs slugger Ian Happ has ridiculous career numbers at PNC Park, which makes him the focus of one of my best home run predictions today.
I also add the red-hot Drake Baldwin and Eugenio Suarez to my MLB home run picks, with the former having already set a career high for long balls. Lastly, I reach for an extreme value play on a Padres slugger that has been on fire at the plate since being traded.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 26
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Happ is amid a 43-game on-base streak at PNC Park |
| Drake Baldwin to hit a home run (+350 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.88u | Baldwin already set a career-high for home runs in 44 fewer games than his previous pace |
| Luis Rengifo to hit a home run (+1300 via bet365) | 0.25u → 3.25u | Rengifo has hit his only home runs of the season since making his debut for the Padres on July 10 |
| Eugenio Suarez to hit a home run (+550 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.38u | Suarez entered the weekend tied for the third-most home runs of any player over the previous 14 days |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 6.7 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Ian Happ (+475)
Ian Happ entered the weekend amid a 42-game on-base streak at PNC Park, while hitting safely in 35 of those 42. Over that span, he batted .315 with a .930 OPS, and he is a great bet to go deep for the 19th time this season (and third time against Pittsburgh).
Happ is 2-for-10 in his career against Braxton Ashcraft, but is in his much better batting split as a switch hitter facing a righty. Happ’s OPS is 294 points higher against right-handed pitching, and it’s also the side from which he has belted 14 of his 18 home runs.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Success against the Pirates
Ian Happ has hit 21 career home runs against the Pirates (third-most against any opponent), and his .310 batting average against them through his first 129 games was the highest against any NL opponent.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Drake Baldwin (+350)
Drake Baldwin homered in consecutive games to enter the weekend, which resulted in his first career 20-home run season. He surpassed his previous high of 19 in 2025 in 44 fewer games.
Baldwin has been tearing the cover off the ball in July, batting .329 with six home runs, 17 RBI, and a .999 OPS. He faces Shane Baz who has not allowed a home run in 23 ⅔ innings (spanning four starts), but Baz has allowed a .290 OBA in home starts.
Baz’s 4.24 xERA is on pace to be a career-worst, and he has allowed a .431 xSLG on his four-seam fastball which he throws more than a third of the time.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Luis Rengifo (+1300)
To say that Luis Rengifo has enjoyed a change of scenery after a trade from Milwaukee to San Diego is an understatement. In the first 57 games with the Brewers, Rengifo batted .205 with zero home runs. But in the last seven games with the Padres entering the weekend, Rengifo was batting .435 with two home runs and seven RBI.
In his last 23 at-bats prior to Saturday’s contest, Rengifo logged a .435 batting average and 1.176 OPS. He has a great chance to keep his hot streak going against Janson Junk, who has allowed a home run in six of his previous seven starts, and multiple home runs three times in that span.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Eugenio Suarez (+550)
Few hitters have been hotter at the plate than Cincinnati Reds slugger Eugenio Suarez, who entered the weekend with five home runs and seven RBI in his last eight games. He looks to add his name to the list of three current Reds hitters who have all taken Cardinals righty Kyle Leahy deep in eight at-bats or fewer.
Suarez entered the weekend with the third-highest slugging percentage and ISO, and a top-10 wRC+ among all qualified hitters over the previous 14 days. In that span, he combined a 0.45 GB/FB rate with belting a home run on 45.5% of his fly balls, and a hard-hit rate of 60% of all balls put into play.
- Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Ian Happ to hit a home run (+475)
- Drake Baldwin to hit a home run (+350)
- Luis Rengifo to hit a home run (+1300)
- Eugenio Suarez to hit a home run (+550)
Best odds: +235363 via bet365 (0.1u -> 235.4u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 200-310-1 | +48.01 units ✅ | +14.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 121-252 | +33.65 units ✅ | +18.2% ✅ |
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