Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, July 4
Fireworks should be on display in the sky and in Wrigleyville, and I'm breaking it down with my Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction ahead of today's NL Central rivalry game. Kyle Leahy takes on Shota Imanaga on Saturday night as the Cubs try to get back into the win column following a 17-1 blowout loss to the Cardinals on Friday.
My MLB picks include a side and two player props, and a same-game parlay. Tune into FOX or stream this matchup on MLB.TV at 8:08 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field (Chicago), with the Cubs valued as heavy betting favorites.
⚾ Cardinals vs. Cubs picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cubs ML (-162 via FanDuel) | 2u → 1.23u | Cubs are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games, and 4-1 in Imanaga's last 5 starts. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-136 via DraftKings) | 1.36u → 1u | PCA has logged a four-game hit streak and has gone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in three of last four starts. |
| Nathan Church to hit a home run (+900 via FanDuel) | 0.15u → 1.35u | Church has hit three home runs in his last four starts. |
Total wagered: 3.51 units | Max profit: 3.58 units
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🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Cubs?
Imanaga has led the Cubs to a win in four of his past five starts. The Cardinals have not had as much success with Leahy, dropping three of the last four starts he's made.
The Cubs have only lost two games in their last 10 outings. After a 17-1 drubbing at home on Friday, expect Chicago to bounce back and return the favor.
The Cubs win this holiday clash over their division rival.
Score prediction: Cubs 8, Cardinals 3
💰 Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction & best bet
Cubs ML (-162)
Chicago is 5-1 straight up in its last six games. The Cubs are even better against National League opponents lately, going 10-2.
The Cubs' lineup boasts an impressive .754 OPS with a .245 batting average. Now the team faces Leahy, who ranks low in the 16th percentile for total pitching run value (-6) this season.
Leahy sits even worse for barrel rate (11.8) and hard-hit rate (50.2), meaning he's giving up hard contact. That's dangerous against this Cubs batting order.
Lay the juice and bet on the Cubs' moneyline at -162 odds on FanDuel.
📡 SBR Edge: Cubs Lineup Production
Aside from Friday's one-run outing, the Cubs lineup has scored eight-plus runs in three of the team's past five games. Leahy has allowed four or more earned runs in four starts, so expect the best version of Chicago's lineup on Saturday night.
🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Cubs player prop bet
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-136)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been on a heater, carrying a four-game hit streak into tonight's tilt against the Cardinals.
PCA ranks at the 95th percentile in batting run value, 90th in hard-hit rate, and the 84th for xwOBA this season. Now he'll face Leahy, who's due for regression after limiting his last few opponents.
We've already covered how much Leahy pitches to contact, ranking in the seventh percentile for barrel rate and second for hard-hit rate. He's also in the bottom 10 in expected ERA and expected batting average.
PCA went over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in three straight starts before being held to one hit (a double) during Friday's 17-1 loss. Head to DraftKings to bet on Crow-Armstrong to go over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at -136 odds.
💣 Cardinals vs. Cubs home run prediction
Nathan Church to hit a home run (+900)
Instead of the chalk plays, there's massive value in the home run prop market on Church. The Cardinals' outfielder has smacked three home runs in his last four starts.
Imanaga has played well lately for the Cubs. However, he's surrendered three-plus home runs in two of his last five starts.
Imanaga is in the bottom 11th percentile for fastball velocity (91.6) and 17th in barrel rate (10.4), setting Church up for a potential dinger at Wrigley on Saturday, especially while he's riding a heater.
At 9-1 odds on FanDuel, we're staking a 0.15-unit wager on Church to go yard, potentially giving us over a unit of profit.
🚀 Cardinals vs. Cubs same-game parlay
Let's roll out a two-leg SGP at +351 odds. Back the Cubs to cover the run line (-1.5), which they've done twice in their last three starts. The Over has also hit in six of Chicago's last seven home games.
💵 Cardinals vs. Cubs SGP picks
- Cubs -1.5 (+136)
- Over 8.5 (-110)
Best odds: +351 via FanDuel (0.5u -> 1.75u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-39-3 | -12.32 units ❌ | -28.2% ❌ |
| Game picks | 3-8-2 | -6.47 units ❌ | -42.08% ❌ |
| Player props | 6-23-1 | -4.56 units ❌ | -24.0% ❌ |
| Parlays | 5-8 | -1.30 units ❌ | -13.9% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Cubs: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm confident enough in the Cubs to bounce back for a win with Imanaga on the bump. I'm dropping two units on Chicago's moneyline at -162 odds. Then another 1.36-unit play on Crow-Armstrong to go Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at -136 odds.
Church at +900 means we only need a small 0.15-unit wager to haul in well over 1 unit of profit. Then, an SGP with the Cubs -1.5 and Over 8.5 runs yields 1.75 units with only a half-unit (0.50) stake.
That means we're risking 4.01 total units across all four wagers to get 5.33 units of profit.
📊 Live Cardinals vs. Cubs odds
The Cubs have been bouncing between -157 and -167 on the moneyline market since opening, and they now sit at -162. The run total has moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 since opening, although there has been a brief fluctuation back to 8.5.
Public bettors are putting 66% of the bets on the Cubs moneyline, and 56% on the run line. Currently, 81% of the public action is on over 8.0 total runs.
📈 Cardinals vs. Cubs betting trends
| Cardinals | Statistic | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| 46-39 | W-L record | 49-39 |
| 48-37 | Run line record | 36-52 |
| 36-45-4 | O/U record | 48-40 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 8-2 |
| 4.19 | Team ERA | 4.38 |
| .246 | Team batting avg. | .245 |
| .716 | OPS | .754 |
🚑 Cardinals vs. Cubs injuries
📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Cubs
- Date: Saturday, July 4
- First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago, Ill.)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Cardinals starter: Kyle Leahy (6-4, 4.09 ERA)
- Cubs starter: Shota Imanaga (5-6, 4.30 ERA)
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