⚾ Cubs vs. Guardians Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, April 4

The Cubs look to even the three-game series against the Guardians with one of their aces on the mound, Shota Imanaga, who opposes Cleveland’s Slade Cecconi. First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 7:15 p.m. ET, airing on FOX, and the Cubs are listed as -140 betting favorites.

My Cubs vs. Guardians prediction finds value with the home underdogs, as I expect them to limit one of Chicago’s top sluggers. I also offer a score prediction and home run prop as part of my MLB picks.

⚾ Cubs vs. Guardians picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.78 units

🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Guardians?

While Cleveland had the worst home record of all six division winners last year (45-36), it was one of just nine teams in the majors that was at least two games over .500 against teams with a winning record. I’ll take the value of plus-money odds on the home dog.

Score prediction: Guardians 4, Cubs 3

💰 Cubs vs. Guardians prediction & best bet

Guardians ML (+120)

Shota Imanaga followed up a 15-win rookie season, where he finished top-five in the Cy Young voting, with a less inspiring 9-8 record last year. And once the calendar turned to August last year, the Cubs faltered in the southpaw’s starts, going just 3-for-9 in his final 12 outings, including the playoffs.

Chicago appears to have the better bullpen on paper, entering the series with a 3.18 ERA. But in terms of xERA, Cleveland’s relievers ranked 12th compared to the Cubs at 20th, so I prefer the Guardians in the later innings if Slade Cecconi can match Imanaga early.

🔥 Best Cubs vs. Guardians player prop bet

Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 hits (+160)

Slade Cecconi was roughed up by left-handed hitting in his first start, allowing a .357 average and 1.143 OPS in 14 at-bats. But I expect positive regression for a pitcher who was tougher on lefties than righties all of last season, with better slash line numbers in each of the three categories in that split, including a .431 slugging allowed.

Crow-Armstrong hit in the No. 8 slot in Chicago’s last two games, which lowers his ceiling for at-bats. This is a risky play considering he has as many multi-hit games as hitless games this season (two apiece). But I also don’t expect him to replicate his .275 average from March and April last year, which was his best of any months in the first half.

💣 Cubs vs. Guardians home run prediction

Jose Ramirez to hit a home run (+390)

There is some value to be had from a home run prop perspective in this game, as Imanaga and Cecconi ranked as the second and 11th-worst pitchers, respectively, in HR/9 rate among those who threw at least 130 innings last year.

I’ll pick a Guardians hitter to go deep and target Imanaga’s 1.93 HR/9 rate from a season ago, as only southpaw JP Sears was worse (1.99). 

Since Imanaga allowed 27 of his 31 home runs to right-handed batters (and an OPS 76 points worse in that split), I’ll side with Jose Ramirez, whose six home runs and .891 OPS against southpaws led the team last year. 

🚀 Cubs vs. Guardians same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay work well with each other, as limiting Pete Crow-Armstrong while Jose Ramirez hits a home run boosts Cleveland's chances of winning considerably. I'm sacrificing some value making this wager at bet365 since Ramirez has as high as +390 home run odds at FanDuel, but FanDuel is not currently offering any odds for the Under on Crow-Armstrong's hits.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cubs vs. Guardians: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I'm a bit scorned by the way I lost my Cubs moneyline bet yesterday, as Cade Horton, my primary reason for picking them, left his start after one inning with an injury. But since Chicago unexpectedly needed to get seven outs from its bullpen, that's the sort of thing that can carry over into today, and tilts things in Cleveland's favor for me.

If one doesn't want to back Ramirez to homer, given that Chase DeLauter is responsible for five of the Guardians' eight home runs, I would not put anyone off wagering on Ramirez's RBI odds, with FanDuel (+155) providing the best value.

📊 Live Cubs vs. Guardians odds

The best sports betting sites are closely aligned from a moneyline perspective, with Chicago only ranging from -136 to -143 as betting favorites. But the dead-even 50/50 betting split has only shaded the line towards Cleveland at FanDuel, where the Cubs shortened slightly from -138 to -136.

There has been no movement off the O/U of 8.0 runs at any of our best sports betting apps as of early Saturday morning, but the juice for the Under did shift from -105 to -115 at BetMGM. The lack of line movement to this point means we're likely to see the total remain the same up until first pitch, barring any late sharp action.

📈 Cubs vs. Guardians betting trends

🚑 Cubs vs. Guardians injuries

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Guardians

• Date: Saturday, April 4
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cubs starter: Shota Imanaga (0-1, 7.20 ERA)
• Guardians starter: Slade Cecconi (0-1, 12.46 ERA)