⚾ Diamondbacks vs. Mets Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 9)

There's a fast-rising young ace on the hill for the home side as we look at the Diamondbacks vs. Mets win probability using the prediction market apps.

It'll be Nolan McLean for the Mets, who's started his season impressively and put a poor WBC showing behind him. Eduardo Rodriguez will oppose him for the Diamondbacks, and the veteran has yet to allow an earned run this year.

The win probabilities seem to expect regression from Rodriguez, who gave up a career-worst 25 home runs last year.

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🏆 Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Mets? Live MLB win probability

There's been some back-and-forth movement in this market since it opened three days ago. The Diamondbacks were the narrow favorites for much of the day on Monday, getting up to a 54% win probability.

But then there was a swing in the Mets' direction on Tuesday, no doubt due to their 4-3 victory to open the series. There's been some minor shuffling since then, but generally New York has remained around a 60% win probability.

The Mets' dud yesterday when they lost 7-2 to Arizona seems to matter little for today's prediction market, largely due to the presence of the quickly ascending McLean on the mound for New York. He's among the top contenders in the MLB Rookie of the Year odds on the NL side.

McLean has been stellar over two starts while allowing just three earned runs across 10 1/3 innings. His sinker is nearly untouchable after generating an opposing slugging percentage of just .111, contributing greatly to the righty's 10.5 K/9.

Trading volume sits at just over $51,000 now, and I expect the Mets' standing as the favorites to keep growing, especially with Rodriguez due for regression after posting an ERA over 5.00 in each of the past two seasons

My prediction: Mets win. McLean gives up so very little quality contact, with a hard-hit rate sitting at 33.3%, according to Baseball Savant. And after getting to Rodriguez, the Mets can feast on Arizona's 26th-ranked bullpen (5.77 ERA).

💣 Who will hit a home run in Diamondbacks vs. Mets?

There's been limited trading volume in this market so far, with nearly $3,000 logged. That's no doubt tied to McLean, whose average exit velocity allowed sits in the 87th percentile at just 85 mph. Trying to lift anything off him a long distance isn't a fun experience.

That's why the leading Mets sluggers are at or near the top of the home run prediction market ahead of first pitch, with Francisco Lindor in first at 13%, and the struggling Bo Bichette at 10%. In between them is the Diamondbacks' Ketel Marte at 11%.

Mets batters will spend at least a few at-bats facing Rodriguez, who leans heavily on his changeup and threw it 34.9% of the time last year, despite the offering being ineffective. Opposing hitters recorded a .304 batting average while slugging .481 against that pitch.

Both sides will be taking their hacks at Citi Field during the rubber match of this series, a venue that spent last year as the 12th-most homer-friendly field, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors.

My prediction: Bo Bichette to hit a home run. Bichette has been struggling immensely to begin his time with the Mets while slashing just .222/.246/.505. But he's been showing some life, with eight hits across his last four games, and he tattooed changeups last year while slugging .630 against that pitch. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Diamondbacks vs. Mets?

There's been some peaks and valleys in this market, with the probability of a run in the first inning briefly dipping to as low as 35.8%. But it rebounded swiftly and now sits at 42.5%, with a run in the first inning during both of the games in this series thus far surely driving that movement.

Despite his overall brilliance, McLean did allow a first-inning run during his opening start this year. He's part of a Mets team with a 7-5 YRFI record, and the Diamondbacks sit at the same mark.

Anyone backing a run in the first inning is primarily leaning on the top of the Mets' order getting to Rodriguez early.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. In addition to Bichette excelling against changeups, Rodriguez also leans on his four-seamer with substandard velocity, and Francisco Lindor slugged .592 last year against that offering.   For more home run analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.  

📊 Diamondbacks vs. Mets win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Mets

• Date: Thursday, April 9
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (New York)
• TV: MLB Network
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Diamondbacks starter: Eduardo Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Mets starter: Nolan McLean (1-0, 2.61 ERA)