Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, July 7

Nothing can awaken sleepwalking offenses quite like bottom-barrel pitching, and that's the focus of my Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction.

The Zac Gallen vs. German Marquez mound matchup presents significant opportunities offensively, despite both batting orders struggling, and especially the Padres' unit. However, there have been signs of life recently even from that league-worst outfit, and my MLB picks look to capitalize.

The D-Backs blanked San Diego 8-0 last night, and the second contest of this four-game set gets underway tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET from Petco Park (ESPN), with San Diego entering as the -120 favorite.

⚾ Diamondbacks vs. Padres picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Padres?

Gallen can breathe life into any suffering offense, and that will be the case again tonight as the Padres log one of their few victories lately. San Diego's offense ranks dead last in run production, and the Diamondbacks are a more respectable but still middling 19th. That won't matter though in a high-scoring affair given the pitching matchup.

Score prediction: Padres 7, Diamondbacks 5

💰 Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Over 8.5 (-124)

Yes, both lineups emit a rather offensive odor. That's especially true for the Padres. San Diego is averaging 3.3 runs per game during a stretch of winning once in its last 10 outings.

But Gallen and Marquez can make even the feeblest offense look imposing.

Gallen was getting Cy Young votes in the not-too-distant past. Now he sits in the 14th percentile or lower in seven key underlying metrics, most notably a 6.28 expected ERA and a 13.5% strikeout rate, the latter plummeting from 21.5% last year.

Marquez is similarly putrid while allowing a 45.7% hard-hit rate (ninth percentile).

🔥 Best Diamondbacks vs. Padres player prop bet

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (+107)

Corbin Carroll has been slumping recently, but nothing cures what ails you quite like facing Marquez.

He's missing so very few bats with a 5.5 K/9, and his groundball rate rests in the 10th percentile. That means a whole lot of balls are being hit in the air with authority. How many? Marquez is in his 11th MLB season, and his fly-ball rate rests at a career-worst 37.1%, far higher than even last year's 28.5%. That's saying something for a hurler who played in Colorado his entire career prior to this campaign.

So there will be lots of opportunities for quality contact from Carroll, especially considering the primary weapon Marquez uses against lefties. That's his curveball, which he throws 45% of the time to lefties, and Carroll's slugging percentage against that pitch sits at .630.

💣 Diamondbacks vs. Padres home run prediction

Jackson Merrill to hit a home run (+526)

Jackson Merrill is one of several Padres hitters who are slowly beginning to awaken from a long slumber. Nearly a week into July, his OPS for the month sits at .890, largely due to belting two of his 10 home runs.

He's hitting the ball with reasonable power while registering a career-best 45.7 hard-hit rate. But what's most appealing about Merrill tonight is his effectiveness against changeups.

The outfielder sees offspeed offerings well, and he should be getting better results for that tendency based on a .428 expected slugging percentage versus a .391 actual mark against changeups. Most of Gallen's offerings have been mediocre, and he throws his changeup 26% of the time to lefties.

🚀 Diamondbacks vs. Padres same-game parlay

My SGP centers around two immensely struggling hurlers bringing both anemic offenses to life, and the likes of Carroll and Merrill leading the way.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.

💡 How I'm betting Diamondbacks vs. Padres: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Everything about this game screams scoring since Gallen and Marquez will make the mound a launchpad. That's why I'm targeting the Over with a full unit, despite the poor offenses involved.

I'm doing the same with the player prop connected to Carroll, trusting that he can nail Marquez's subpar offerings, and especially the curveball.

📊 Live Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds

Action on the moneyline is nearly split, with the Padres getting the slight edge through DraftKings while receiving 52% of the bets. But there's a much different tale when looking at the run line, with the Diamondbacks garnering 70% of the action to cover +1.5.

Similarly, wagering on the total is slanted toward the Over on 9 runs, with that side drawing 64% of the attention.

However, some of the best MLB betting sites are still offering a total of 8.5, including FanDuel. There will likely be alignment at 9 come first pitch, so grab the lower number while you can.

📈 Diamondbacks vs. Padres betting trends

🚑 Diamondbacks vs. Padres injuries

📺 How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Padres

• Date: Tuesday, July 7
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Diamondbacks starter: Zac Gallen (3-8, 6.36 ERA)
• Padres starter: German Marquez (3-2, 5.79 ERA)