Rangers vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, July 17

Two surprise division leaders get their second half of the season underway today as the Atlanta Braves host the Texas Rangers at Truist Park. My Rangers vs. Braves prediction makes a play on the total and eschews Atlanta’s steep -220 moneyline odds. Because I expect a low-scoring affair early, I’m backing the Under on Brandon Nimmo’s hits/runs/RBI prop, but I still find value in Matt Olson to go deep.

Cal Quantrill opposes Chris Sale on the mound, and first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited).

⚾ Rangers vs. Braves picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.36 units

🏆 Who will win Rangers vs. Braves?

While the Braves are only 2-4 in Chris Sale’s last six starts, they have totaled just six runs in the four losses. With even a slightly better day from the offense, Sale should lead the first-place Braves to victory.

Score prediction: Braves 5, Rangers 2

💰 Rangers vs. Braves prediction & best bet

First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-127)

Cal Quantrill has pitched brilliantly in a starter’s role lately after beginning as a reliever. He has a 2.12 ERA as a starter, and is coming off his first quality start after a season-high 79 pitches in his last outing against the Astros.

Conversely, Chris Sale has a lights out 1.55 ERA through eight home starts. Though he’s coming off a June where he allowed an eye-popping .305 OBA, Sale did well to keep his ERA to a respectable 2.35 ERA, thanks to his ability to keep the ball in the yard (no home runs allowed).

🔥 Best Rangers vs. Braves player prop bet

Brandon Nimmo Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115)

Nimmo went into the All-Star Break with three multi-hit games in his last four, thus going over this projected total on hits alone three times in that span. Even though Nimmo is batting a respectable .276 with a .783 OPS this month, just two of his eight hits have gone for extra bases. Thus, Nimmo will likely need to score or drive in a run to cash this Over, and I don’t expect that to happen in this low-scoring affair.

Sale has allowed a .215/.277/.290 slash line to left-handed batters, with just five of his 20 hits allowed in that split going for extra bases. He is 2-for-7 in his career against Sale, and we’re getting a decent price to back this Under considering the southpaw’s struggles against lead-off hitters this season (.298 batting average, .757 OPS). 

💣 Rangers vs. Braves home run prediction

Matt Olson to hit a home run (+280)

Olson has a whopping 1.338 OPS with a home run over a decent 10 at-bat sample size against Cal Quantrill.

Quantrill did well to keep the ball on the ground in his last outing against the Astros, inducing 11 ground balls to 10 fly balls. But it was also the only one of his 16 appearances (min. 1 IP) that he got more ground balls in play than fly balls.

Olson totaled a 3.3 bWAR in the first half. He is one of the few sluggers to rank in the 91st percentile or better in xSLG and hard-hit rate, and this is great value on a player who has six straight 25-home run seasons and is fifth in homers since 2021.

🚀 Rangers vs. Braves same-game parlay

My first player prop wager of Nimmo going Under his projected total bases works well with the Under cashing early over the first five innings. Since Olson homering would lower the chances of the Under cashing (assuming he hit his early), I am changing the last leg of this SGP to him just recording a hit, which he did eight times in 10 games leading up to the All-Star Break.

Since bet365 nor FanDuel, the top sports betting since with the best F5 innings total odds offered Unders for hits/runs/RBI props, I changed Nimmo's portion of the SGP to total bases.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Rangers vs. Braves: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

We're getting a great number on this first five innings total that is more than half of the full game O/U of 8 runs. I'm limiting this play to a first five innings wager instead of backing the Under for the full game, given Chris Sale's home dominance. I also don't want to rely on the Rangers bullpen for too many outs, as Quantrill is still being stretched out and has only pitched past the fifth inning once this season.

📊 Live Rangers vs. Braves odds

There is a wide 22-cent gap at the best MLB betting sites between Atlanta's shortest moneyline odds of -205 at DraftKings and the -227 (69.42% implied odds) at bet365 at the high end of the market. So far, the Braves are the third-most popular favorite despite their steep odds, attracting 67% of the early wagers.

Lopsided betting splits have also affected the total. The O/U lowered a half-run from an opening number of 8.5 at several best sports betting sites to 8 after early wagers were 2/1 in support of the Under.

📈 Rangers vs. Braves betting trends

🚑 Rangers vs. Braves injuries

📺 How to watch Rangers vs. Braves

• Date: Friday, July 17
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rangers starter: Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.11 ERA)
• Braves starter: Chris Sale (9-6, 2.20 ERA)