⚾ Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, April 29

The Boston Red Sox look to clinch their first series win under interim manager Chad Tracy in today's rubber match against their AL East rivals, the Toronto Blue Jays. The starting pitching matchup is between Brayan Bello and Eric Lauer, with first pitch from Rogers Centre scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Blue Jays are listed as -130 betting favorites.

My Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction backs the home favorites in a complete fade of Boston righty Brayan Bello, whose spot in the rotation is anything but solid. That means I’m backing a big day from Blue Jays second baseman Ernie Clement, with another five-time All-Star as my top home run play as part of my MLB picks.

⚾ Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.23 units

🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Blue Jays?

Boston is an uninspiring 1-4 in Brayan Bello’s five starts, while allowing eight or more runs in three of the four losses. I expect Toronto to slug its way to another victory. 

Score prediction: Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 5 

💰 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction & best bet

Blue Jays ML (-130)

Bello went 0-2 against Toronto last year, while pitching to a 4.09 ERA and 1.545 WHIP. He has never finished a season with better than a 4.09 ERA against the division rival. 

The most alarming thing is that Bello’s K/9 rate against the Blue Jays was down to 3.3 last year, the third straight year it has dropped.

Boston is 11-1 SU when its starting pitcher goes six-plus innings, and is 1-17 in all other games. That doesn’t inspire confidence in the Red Sox today, considering Bello has recorded 14 or fewer outs four times.

🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Blue Jays player prop bet

Ernie Clement Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120)

Ernie Clement entered the week amid a 10-game hitting streak, during which he batted .381 with a .952 OPS. It is somewhat disappointing that he was only able to drive in two runs and score three times over that span, but he is due for positive regression in those metrics, especially when considering Bello’s struggles against the Blue Jays.

Bello has allowed a .320/.374/.453 slash line in 75 combined at-bats to current Blue Jays hitters, which means there should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths when Clement bats. Clement is on pace to match his career-best strikeout rate (7.7%), and his .272 xBA so far is his best of the last three seasons.

💣 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays home run prediction

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run (+650)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an eye-popping .400/.419/.733 slash line in 30 career at-bats against Bello, with two of his 12 hits being home runs. Only four of Guerrero’s 18 outs against the righty have been strikeouts, and it’s clear that he sees the ball well out of Bello’s hand, with half of his hits going for extra bases.

Bello has allowed at least one home run in four of five starts. And after surrendering five home runs in his last road start against another division rival, the Orioles, his 3.27 HR/9 rate was the second-highest among all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this year.

🚀 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays same-game parlay

Normally I prefer to swap out the home run wager for a different third leg of a same-game parlay to give it a more realistic chance of cashing. But Guerrero's numbers against Bello are too good to ignore, and backing him to homer provides more value to this SGP than simply backing him to go Over 1.5 total bases (+120) or for him to drive in a run (+165).

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Red Sox vs. Blue Jays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

As of first pitch for yesterday's game, Toronto hadn't announced its starting pitching plans for today, as it wanted to see how much it would use the bullpen after Trey Yesavage's first start off the IL.

If Eric Lauer and his 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP don't inspire confidence, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Over instead of simply fading Bello and his poor track record against Toronto. But since Boston ranked 24th or worse in OPS, home runs, opponents' OPS, and starting pitching ERA prior to firing manager Alex Cora, I'm still backing the Blue Jays with confidence.

Lastly, I'm still wagering my normal 0.25 units on my top home run play even if Guerrero Jr. is on pace for 11 home runs, as hasn’t finished with fewer than 23 home runs in any of the last five seasons.

📊 Live Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds

Toronto ranges from a -130 moneyline favorite on the low end of the market at BetMGM and FanDuel and -136 on the high end at DraftKings. So far the Blue Jays are getting 66% of the moneyline wagers despite trotting out a pitcher who won't be in their rotation when Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios get healthy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Toronto reach -140 at some top sports betting sites based on that lopsided split.

The O/U is at 8.5 runs everywhere except for bet365, whose total is slightly lower at 8.0. But with the early betting splits being 69/31 in favor of the Over, it shouldn't be long before bet365 aligns with the rest of the market at 8.5.

📈 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays betting trends

🚑 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays injuries

📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Blue Jays

• Date: Wednesday, April 29
• First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Red Sox starter: Brayan Bello (1-3, 9.00 ERA)
• Blue Jays starter: Eric Lauer (1-3, 6.75 ERA)