Royals vs. Rays Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 24)

A once cruising Tampa Bay club has finally started skidding as midseason approaches, but the Royals vs. Rays win probability from the prediction market apps gives the home side the clear advantage to rebound tonight.

The Rays are sizable 59% favorites ahead of first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET from Tropicana Field (ESPN), with Griffin Jax taking the ball for them against Noah Cameron. Tampa has dropped eight of its last 11 games heading into tonight, which includes a 12-5 thumping yesterday against Kansas City.

But there's an edge on the mound tonight for Tampa, largely due to the lethal sweeper Jax utilizes.

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🏆 Who will win Royals vs. Rays? Live MLB win probability

There hasn't been much movement in this market, with the Rays dipping slightly to a 57% win probability before shifting back to where they started at 59%.

The heavy lean aligns with what should be a mismatch between Jax and a mediocre Royals offense that ranks 17th in OPS. Jax leans heavily on a vicious sweeper that he throws 40% of the time to right-hand hitters. It comes with baffling movement, and opposing hitters are registering a .176 batting average and .382 slugging against it as a result.

The long ball can be his weakness, with an HR/9 that sits at 1.7. But that's a lesser concern against a Kansas City offense sitting 22nd in home runs.

Yes, the Rays have been losing recently, but six of their eight most recent defeats have been of the one-run variety. They do struggle against lefties while putting up the league's fourth-worst OPS in that split. But Jax should keep the need for offense low, and the likes of Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz (.885 and .859 OPS against lefties, respectively) will deliver some damage.

My prediction: Rays win. The Rays are pushing a 60% chance to win, and they'll be leaning hard on Jax to hold the line as the heavy favorites. He's given up just two earned runs over his last three starts.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Royals vs. Rays?

There's a clear front-runner when looking at the home run probabilities for tonight, with bat-speed merchant Caminero far ahead of the pack while getting a 22% chance.

Caminero has clubbed 16 homers, and he matches up well with Cameron, a hurler who relies on movement and sequencing far more than power. One of Cameron's most-relied upon weapons is a changeup that opposing hitters are slugging just .308 against.

It's critical then to identify and lay off that pitch, because ball launchings will come if you force Cameron to throw his fastball that features little deception or intimidating velocity. He averages just 92.3 mph on his fastball (19th percentile). Caminero, who boasts 100th percentile bat speed, can tee off, as he's slugging .678 against four-seamers.

My prediction: Junior Caminero to hit a home run. Sure, a whole lot of sluggers clobber fastballs, as that's a requirement in this era. But some are still better than most, and that applies to Caminero with his 71.1% hard-hit rate against heat. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Royals vs. Rays?

There's been a meandering ride in this market, with the probability of a first-inning run starting at a middling 47% before dropping to 45%, then moving up to 49% earlier this morning and now resting around where it began.

Lean against that, as the top of the Royals' lineup doesn't possess the thump to take advantage of the homer haven that is Tropicana Field.

The Rays' home sits seventh in its homer friendliness, but the Royals will likely still be without Bobby Witt Jr., and Salvador Perez, Lane Thomas, and Starling Marte all come with a hard-hit percentage below 42%. And far under in the case of the latter two, who sit at 36.2 and 37.5, respectively.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. The Rays are the eighth-best NRFI team while boasting a 39-37 record. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Royals vs. Rays win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Royals vs. Rays

• Date: Wednesday, June 24
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Royals starter: Noah Cameron (4-4, 4.20 ERA)
• Rays starter: Griffin Jax (2-5, 3.67 ERA)