⚾ World Baseball Classic Odds 2026: A Look at The 8 Remaining Teams in Quarterfinals
We're officially down to just eight teams in the World Baseball Classic, as pool play came to a very dramatic end with Team USA almost getting eliminated before the quarterfinals. However, the Americans survived, and they're still the favorites by the latest WBC odds.
Following closely behind Team USA is the Dominican Republic, which has separated itself from defending champion Japan to stand alone as the second-biggest favorite.
It's a bit tricky to find a true dark-horse contender when there are only eight teams, but I think we may legitimately have one on our hands. Stay locked in on our WBC 2026 expert picks if you're looking for picks for all four of these quarterfinals showdowns, but we're looking beyond that in this article.
π’ WBC odds ahead of quarterfinals
Latest World Baseball Classic odds via DraftKings ahead of the quarterfinals
| Team | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| USA | +140 | Still the most talented team, and this is longer than pre-tournament price. |
| Dominican Republic | +230 | Will have to face Paul Skenes in semis if both it and USA advance. |
| Japan | +425 | Avoids USA and Dominican Republic until potential finals showdown. This is a great price. |
| Venezuela | +900 | Has the toughest quarterfinals game among the top-four contenders. |
| Puerto Rico | +1600 | Don't think it gets past Italy. No, thank you. |
| Italy | +1800 | Maybe the best bet on the board? I discuss more below. |
| Canada | +3000 | Unfortunately, set up for failure against Team USA. |
| South Korea | +5000 | Biggest underdogs for a reason. In very tough against Dominicans. |
πͺ½ Did USA fly too close to the sun, or can it recover?
Team USA odds to win WBC: +140 via DraftKings
It's not quite a full-on miracle that Team USA is in the quarterfinals, but it appeared highly unlikely 24 hours ago.
Mexico and Italy played on Wednesday night, and with Team USA sitting at 3-1, it could advance only via an Italy win (which was trading as a +240 underdog) or a low-scoring Mexico win (the total was set at 7.5). In the end, Italy crushed Mexico, and the Americans lived to play another day.
As a result, Team USA will play Friday night against Canada, and the underdogs have been set up for failure here. USA last played on Tuesday in Houston, while the Canadians played each of the last two days of pool play in Puerto Rico and now have to travel to Daikin Park, where the Americans have been waiting and resting.
🛣️ WBC odds: Team USA's road to the final
- Last played Tuesday, March 10 in Houston
- Play Friday, March 13 in Houston vs. Canada, which played on March 10 and 11 in Puerto Rico
- Would play on March 15 in Miami with win vs. winner of South Korea-Dominican Republic
- With a win, would play on March 17 vs. winner of other semifinal matchup, which takes place March 16
Not only has USA received an extra day of rest ahead of its quarterfinal showdown, it would also get an extra day if it makes it to the finals π
I think USA sleepwalks to a win vs. Canada, and then it'll face the winner of South Korea vs. Dominican Republic, with most people assuming the Dominicans will also win comfortably.
Paul Skenes will pitch in that potential semifinal showdown, and I think that immediately gives USA the edge in the semis. Pitchers can throw up to 95 pitches in the semifinals, so Skenes could theoretically have a normal start at that point (he won't in mid-March, but he can essentially go as long as he wants).
And now we're seeing that Joe Ryan could start in the finals rather than rookie Nolan McLean if the USA makes it that far. Therefore, I think this is a good price to pay for USA to win. I bet the Americans at +110 before the tournament, and they were trading at minus money for most of pool play, even when we knew Tarik Skubal wasn't going to be available in the finals. Nothing else has changed beyond the baseball world finding out that USA manager Mark DeRosa didn't know the pool-play qualification rules.
This is the best roster in this tournament, and it's arguably the greatest one ever assembled. I'm sorry, Dominican Republic fans, but I don't think your boys will be having much fun on Sunday night if these teams square off.
How Dominican Republic vs. USA could look in semifinal showdown
| Position | Dominican Republic | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Starting pitcher | Luis Severino/Brayan Bello | Paul Skenes |
| C | Austin Wells | Cal Raleigh |
| 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Bryce Harper |
| 2B | Ketel Marte | Gunnar Henderson |
| SS | Geraldo Perdomo | Bobby Witt Jr. |
| 3B | Manny Machado | Alex Bregman |
| LF | Juan Soto | Roman Anthony |
| CF | Julio Rodriguez | Pete Crow-Armstrong |
| RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Aaron Judge |
| DH | Junior Caminero | Kyle Schwarber |
π€ What does that mean for the Dominican Republic?
Dominican Republic odds to win WBC: +230 via DraftKings
If you got in on the Dominican Republic at odds ranging from +350 to +450, I still love that bet. First, you got great value compared to the current price, while Japan and USA are trading at longer odds than they were before the tournament began. Second, they still absolutely have a shot thanks to an electric lineup, and I think their likelihood of winning is more appropriately represented by the 28% implied probability of their current odds rather than the ~20% of those pre-tournament ones.
However, in saying that, I think these +230 odds are pretty "fair," and I don't want to bet on fair odds. I want some type of edge, and we're seeing that with Japan, and even USA to an extent. USA would have a pretty significant advantage in a potential semifinal showdown between these teams, and I don't want to pay up for the second-biggest favorites at this point.
π Could Venezuela vs. Japan provide us with the champion?
Japan odds to win WBC: +425 via DraftKings | Venezuela odds to win WBC: +900 via DraftKings
I was sleeping on Venezuela until the exact moment that it almost came back against the Dominican Republic last night. That showed me how much the Venezuelans want this, and they got the advantage of staying in Miami after that game while Japan traveled from Tokyo to Florida.
Japan hasn't played since Tuesday, though, and this is a team that's been here before. In the 2023 WBC, it played its quarterfinal game against Italy at Tokyo Dome, and then traveled to Miami for the semifinals. Japan played that game four days after its quarterfinal win, and it was a wildly tight contest against Mexico. The final was the very next night, while USA enjoyed a cakewalk two days prior against Cuba.
My point is, this isn't new to Japan, and especially to these Japan players. More than half of that lineup is starting in this tournament.
Also, I think the top-three favorites have very different profiles when it comes to this tournament, and, personally, I like Japan's the most.
3️⃣ WBC odds: The Defining Characteristics Big 3
- USA looks almost complacent? I mean, it's hard not to be when you've assembled the greatest roster ever, but it needs to get past that if it wants to win.
- The Dominican Republic players simply love baseball. They play with absolute passion and excitement, and that can take you a long way.
- Japan, though, is about its business. Every plate appearance is a grind. Every pitch, throw, side-shuffle matters. They are hungry, and that makes them the most dangerous.
π΄ Is Italy the dark-horse contender?
Italy odds to win WBC: +1800 via DraftKings
Italy's path to the final actually looks relatively straight-forward for a team trading at +1800 odds. In its quarterfinal game, it faces Puerto Rico and is trading as the underdog for some reason. Please, before you do anything else, smash that at +105. Italy is so much better than that Puerto Rico team (which has been decimated by insurance issues). Mexico was significantly more talented than Puerto Rico, and Italy just destroyed it.
Then, Italy would take on either Japan or Venezuela in the semifinals, and I think both of those games are winnable. This is a really good team with a ton of MLB talent. Italy's pitchers are pounding the strike zone, getting ahead in counts, and inducing soft contact. Meanwhile, its hitters are crushing the ball and having gritty plate appearances when they're not doing so.
Italy has power, speed, and pitching. At +1800, that sounds like a steal. This could very well be the best bet on the oddsboard based on pure value. If I was setting these prices, I'd shift Venezuela closer to +1100 and have Italy at that same price. At the very least, it should be shorter than Puerto Rico. I would encourage you to mix a bet on Italy with a wager on one of USA or Japan.
π WBC 2026 knockout-round schedule
Quarterfinals - March 13 and 14
| Favorite (odds) | Underdog (odds) | Date (location) |
|---|---|---|
| Dominican Republic (-750) | South Korea (+500) | March 13 at 6:30 p.m. ET (loanDepot park, Miami) |
| USA (-800) | Canada (+500) | March 13 at 8 p.m. ET (Daikin Park, Houston) |
| Puerto Rico (-130) | Italy (+105) | March 14 at 3 p.m. ET (Daikin Park, Houston) |
| Japan (-180) | Venezuela (+145) | March 14 at 9 p.m. ET (loanDepot park, Miami) |
Sunday, March 15
- TBD vs. TBD (Semifinals, 8 p.m. ET, loanDepot park - Miami)
Monday, March 16
- TBD vs. TBD (Semifinals, 8 p.m. ET, loanDepot park - Miami)
Tuesday, March 17
- TBD vs. TBD (Finals, 8 p.m. ET, loanDepot park - Miami)
βΎ WBC 2026 knockout-round info
- When: March 13 to March 17
- Where: loanDepot park (Miami) and Daikin Park (Houston)
- Favorite: USA (+140 via DraftKings)
βWorld Baseball Classic FAQs
Who is the WBC odds favorite?
Team USA is the favorite at DraftKings, with odds of +140.
How many teams are in the WBC knockout round?
Eight teams are set to play in the knockout stage of the WBC: Canada, Puerto Rico, Italy, USA, Japan, South Korea, Dominican Republic, and Venezuela.
Who won the last WBC?
Japan won the tournament in 2023.
Who will win WBC MVP?
Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are the favorites to win WBC MVP with the knockout phase set to begin.
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