🏎️ Chinese Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert Picks for Sunday's Race in Shanghai
Ferrari will continue its pursuit of a strong Mercedes team on Sunday during the second race of a new F1 season as I make my Chinese Grand Prix predictions.
Red Bull and McLaren will also be looking to step up, but I'm backing George Russell to secure his second straight victory.
He's the -118 betting favorite, trading ahead of teammate Kimi Antonelli, Charles Leclerc, and Max Verstappen. Sunday's race at Shanghai International Circuit starts at 3 a.m. ET (ESPN) after a schedule that includes practice, the first sprint session of the season, and qualifying.
📊 Chinese Grand Prix odds 2026
Chinese Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM. Updated on Thursday, March 11
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | -125 | 55.56% | $8 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| Charles Leclerc | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Max Verstappen | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Lando Norris | +4000 | 2.4% | $400 |
| Oscar Piastri | +4000 | 2.4% | $400 |
| Isack Hadjar | +4000 | 2.4% | $400 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +40000 | 0.3% | $4,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +40000 | 0.3% | $4,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.2% | $5,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | 0.2% | $5,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +75000 | 0.1% | $7,500 |
| Alex Albon | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
🔢 Chinese Grand Prix odds movement
- Antonelli's odds shortened from +500 to +400
- Leclerc odds shortened from +600 to +550
- Lewis Hamilton's odds shortened from +800 to +700
- Verstappen's odds lengthened from +700 to +800
- Lando Norris' odds lengthened from +2500 to +4000
- Oscar Piastri's odds lengthened from +2500 to +4000
💰 Chinese Grand Prix predictions, best bets
| Bet | Odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| To win race: George Russell, Mercedes | -118 via BetMGM | 1u -> 0.85u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Top 3 finish: Charles Leclerc, Ferrari | -140 via BetMGM | 1u -> .71u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Long shot pick: Lando Norris | +2700 via FanDuel | .1u -> 3.7u | ⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.1 units | Max profit: 5.26 units
🏆 Pick to win Chinese Grand Prix: George Russell
I backed Russell to win in Australia with a 3-star pick, and I'm going back to the Mercedes driver after his demonstrative, comfortable victory in the season opener, this time with 5 stars of confidence.
Russell and his W17 were the class of Down Under. Before the season started, Mercedes was touted as having the best car in the field. That proved true and then some. After the first few laps, the Australian GP was never in question for Russell, who cruised to the win.
Teammate Kimi Antonelli took second place, with Russell finishing almost 16 seconds faster than third-place Charles Leclerc.
🥉 Top 3 finish at Chinese Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc
Sure, Ferrari made a mistake in missing the opportune moment for their first pitstop, but even a timely first stop wouldn't have been enough for Leclerc to beat the Mercedes duo.
That said, Leclerc was a dominant third-place finisher. While he finished less than a second in front of teammate Lewis Hamilton, third place for the Monegasques felt assured from the early stages of the race.
As expected, Ferrari has the discernible advantage out of the starting gate, which I discussed in my F1 odds at prediction markets. Until the other teams adapt, I'm happy backing Leclerc to finish on the podium despite the short odds.
It'll also be interesting to see the impact of Ferrari's rear-wing innovation the team is rolling out this weekend designed to take advantage of the new regulations. The intention is to reduce drag even further on the straights.
🎯 Best long shot Chinese Grand Prix pick: Lando Norris
There's no way around it. McLaren is no longer the big boy on campus, with their car visibly lagging behind Ferrari and Mercedes. Despite the notable disadvantage, Norris managed a fifth-place finish in Melbourne.
So, he was, by all intents and purposes, the best of the rest. Max Verstappen will likely be better positioned on the starting grid in China, making Norris' quest for first place even more complicated.
That's why this play is only a 2-star pick, as I don't believe the car is good enough for him to get the better of pace-setters Mercedes and Ferrari.
However, the defending champion still represents the best long-shot play. And he might have a chance, considering Shanghai International Circuit is the fourth-slowest on the circuit.
💡 How I'm betting Chinese Grand Prix
I've increased my investment in the first two picks from a half to a full unit. My confidence level is markedly higher after watching Mercedes take first and second like it was a leisurely Sunday mosey on their local motorway.
They raced flawlessly, which helps. But it's clear the vehicle is notably superior to the rest of the field, including Ferrari, which poses the biggest threat to Mercedes' projected early-season dominance.
I'm not confident in the long-shot pick; hence, the .1-unit investment. Until McLaren can bridge the gap, it could be a while before last year's champions win a race.
💡 How to bet on F1
Our Sean Tomlinson digs into how to bet on the F1 in 2026, providing insight you won't want to miss.
☁️ Will the weather impact Chinese Grand Prix?
At the time of writing, there is only an 18% chance of rain for the Chinese Grand Prix, with winds gusting to 20 mph and a temperature of about 56 degrees.
We'll update the forecast to ensure the updated projections.
🏆 Past Chinese Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2022 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2021 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2020 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Chinese Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Thursday, March 12 (11:30 p.m. ET)
- Sprint qualifying: Friday, March 13 (3:30 a.m. ET)
- Sprint race: Friday, March 13 (11 p.m. ET)
- Qualifying: Saturday, March 14 (3 a.m. ET)
- Race: Sunday, March 15 (3 a.m. ET)
📺 How to watch 2026 Chinese Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, March 15
- Time: 3 a.m. ET
- Location: Shanghai International Circuit (Shanghai, China)
- How to watch: ESPN
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