🏇 SBR Kentucky Derby Draft 2026: Who Did Our Experts Pick to Win Saturday's Race?

We gathered five of our betting experts into a (digital) room to draft the 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby with real money on the line. Who went first? Who went last?

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: May 1, 2026 6:43 PM EDT • 5 minute read

Pictured: 2026 Kentucky Derby contender Renegade during a morning training session during Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs. Photo by USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect.

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Nothing motivates us at Sportsbook Review like being right and making money, so we combined our two favorite pastimes into a bonding activity with stakes and competed against each other in our inaugural SBR Kentucky Derby Draft.

The rules were fairly straightforward: we ran a four-round draft with 20 picks across our five betting experts, and each horse earns points for their finishing position with a +5 bonus for first and last. The winner takes home $50 USD - presumably to spend on the Preakness Stakes - while the losers get mocked endlessly on social media.

Here is how we ranked all 20 horses ahead of the 2026 Kentucky Derby, which begins Saturday at approximately 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC, along with our experts' analysis on why they chose the four horses in their metaphorical stable. Saddle up, fellas!

📜 How the SBR Kentucky Derby Draft works: Rules & scoring

As mentioned above, the draft was simple by nature: five experts chose four horses each across a 20-pick snake draft with a "third-round reversal" to keep things fair. Here's a quick overview of how the draft worked:

Snake draft, third-round reversal (last pick in R1 picks first in R2 and R3)
Scoring is based on finishing position, with 1st earning points equal to the number of horses in the field and each spot worth one point fewer than the position above (1st = 20 points, 2nd = 19 points, 3rd = 18 points, etc.)
1st place and last place each receive a +5 bonus
Scratched horses earn 0 points; ties split points evenly
Winner takes home $50

We drafted our horses on Thursday afternoon after Silent Tactic and Fulleffort were scratched but before Right to Party was scratched; we subbed in the replacement horse for that pick and will do so for any horses scratched before post time.

🌞 Clear and dry conditions

Our Kentucky Derby weather report details the forecasted ideal conditions ahead on race day.

🏆 2026 Kentucky Derby draft results

Here's how our four-round expert draft played out on Thursday afternoon:

Expert	Pick 1 ⬇️	Pick 2 ⬆️	Pick 3 ⬆️	Pick 4 ⬇️
Rob Paul	Renegade	Robusta*	Six Speed	Litmus Test
C Jackson Cowart	Commandment	Golden Tempo	Wonder Dean	Great White
Corey Scott	Further Ado	Danon Bourbon	Potente	Pavlovian
LJ Blut	Chief Wallabee	The Puma	Incredibolt	Intrepido
Dustin Saracini	Emerging Market	So Happy	Albus	Ocelli

*Right to Party (scratched) was replaced by Robusta in our draft

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📊 Kentucky Derby power rankings

Here is how our experts ranked all 20 horses based on our draft results:

Renegade
Commandment
Further Ado
Chief Wallabee
Emerging Market
So Happy
The Puma
Danon Bourbon
Golden Tempo
Robusta*
Albus
Incredibolt
Potente
Wonder Dean
Six Speed
Litmus Test
Great White
Pavlovian
Intrepido
Ocelli

*Right to Party (scratched) was replaced by Robusta in our draft

📝 Kentucky Derby draft analysis

Here is how each of our experts analyzed their final crop from the draft:

🐴 Rob Paul's Kentucky Derby draft picks

Renegade
Robusta
Six Speed
Litmus Test

Having the No. 1 pick, it was a no-brainer to take Renegade, who has the best odds and sits in the top post position. Trainer Todd Pletcher has taken home the Kentucky Derby crown twice, too. After taking the top option, I focused on selecting horses with better post positions (Right to Party, Litmus Test) and then one of the longest shots (Six Speed).

(Editor's note: we had to replace Right to Party with Robusta, who will now surely win the race and make Rob look like a genius.)

🐴 C Jackson Cowart's Kentucky Derby draft picks

Commandment
Golden Tempo
Wonder Dean
Great White

Commandment could be the best horse in this field even as the No. 2 pick, but the best value play in this entire draft is grabbing Golden Tempo - an elite closer who should be able to overcome the outside post - with the ninth pick. Adding the upside of speedy Japanese colt Wonder Dean from a strong No. 10 post and the massive stalking Great White with the final two picks? Best of luck, gents.

🐴 Corey Scott's Kentucky Derby draft picks

Further Ado
Danon Bourbon
Potente
Pavlovian

I’m not an expert on horse racing, but I do know how to gamble. I know the Kentucky Derby is an efficient market, so my strategy was to power-rank the horses using a racebook that takes large bets. Renegade was No. 1 on my board, while Ocelli was No. 20. While the draft went mostly as I predicted, I did get a couple of opportunities to grab undervalued horses (Potente, Pavlovian).

🐴 LJ Blut's Kentucky Derby draft picks

Chief Wallabee
The Puma
Incredibolt
Intrepido

Chief Wallabee, The Puma, Incredibolt, and Intrepido each bring different strengths that make them legitimate win candidates in the Kentucky Derby. I am honestly shocked I landed all four horses in this draft. Chief Wallabee has late closing power, The Puma offers tactical versatility, Incredibolt brings raw speed that can control the pace, and Intrepido adds stamina for a strong finish. In a chaotic 20-horse field at Churchill Downs, having multiple running styles increases the chance one breaks the race open and holds on for victory.

🐴 Dustin Saracini's Kentucky Derby draft picks

Emerging Market
So Happy
Albus
Ocelli

My ticket has real upside, and that's what we're looking for at the Kentucky Derby. I leaned into high-value longshots with legitimate paths to outperform their odds. Horses like Emerging Market and Ocelli bring improving form and the kind of late-running style that can capitalize if the pace collapses up front, which is a classic Derby-winning setup. So Happy adds intrigue as a potential pace factor who could hang around longer than expected if left alone early, while Albus fits the mold of a sneaky closer who could pass tired horses in the stretch and blow up the exotics. In a race known for chaos and inflated payouts, targeting runners like these - who may be peaking at the right time rather than overbet favorites - feels like the strongest play out of all the SBR players.

🏇 More Kentucky Derby picks & predictions

📺 How to watch the Kentucky Derby 2026

When: Saturday, May 2
Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
Where: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Ky.)
How to watch: NBC | Peacock | NBC Sports App

Written by:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is the Senior Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review, specializing in NFL and NASCAR betting while helping lead the team's coverage of college sports and major events like the Super Bowl and March Madness. In his seven years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter, he has stayed true to "process over results" while specifically targeting futures betting and news-driven markets, where he can lean on advanced metrics and an understanding of market psychology to attack value before the number moves. His favorite sportsbook is FanDuel for its clean interface and ease of use, though he finds some of his best value bets at Caesars and bet365, especially for NASCAR. An award-winning writer and editor with a decade of experience in sports media, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and multiple large daily newspapers before joining SBR in 2023. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he covered the Tar Heels' championship run through the 2017 NCAA men's basketball tournament. He's cashed some big tickets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — but he's still haunted by enough second-place slips to wallpaper his home office.