📽️ Oscars Odds at Prediction Markets 2026: Sinners Among Favorites for Biggest Awards

We're digging into the latest Oscars odds at prediction trading market Kalshi for all of the major categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress. "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" received 16 and 13 nominations, respectively, and are among the favorites in most major Oscars categories.

After reviewing this page, head over to one of our best Oscars betting sites for more wagering options. Without further ado, here are the latest Oscars odds and favorites ahead of the 2026 Oscars ceremony on Sunday at 7 p.m. ET at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Compete against your friends, family, and enemies on Sunday with our free, printable 2026 Oscars ballot.

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🔮 Oscars predictions 2026

Here are my best predictions for the major Oscars categories, along with the current favorite by the odds at Kalshi.

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Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

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🎬 Best Picture Oscars odds

Best Picture prediction: One Battle After Another (74%)

Sinners may have earned more nominations, but it's still hard to see how One Battle After Another doesn't win Best Picture. PTA's film has dominated the awards circuit, winning Best Picture and Best Director at the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and BAFTA Awards. But more importantly, the film won the top prize at the PGA Awards on Feb. 28. Seven of the last eight films to win this award went on to win Best Picture.

Immediately after the Oscar nominations were announced, traders were all over Sinners. The probability for the film nearly reached 25% (+300), while the odds for One Battle After Another got as short as 66.2% (-196). While One Battle After Another reached 80% after winning top prize at the PGA Awards, the gap has closed again after Sinners won the top prize at the Actor Awards. However, in my opinion, this simply means that there's value in taking One Battle After Another, as I really don't see Sinners winning this award.

For your consideration: Marty Supreme (3%)

As I've already mentioned, Sinners saw a big surge in momentum after the nominations were announced, overtaking Hamnet as the second-favorite at this year's ceremony. However, I still believe that Marty Supreme, even with just a 2% (+4900) chance of winning, poses a threat to One Battle After Another.

The film boasts a 93% on RottenTomatoes, and it has grossed over $95 million at the U.S. box office. While this award is likely to go to One Battle After Another, there is a lot to like about the value in taking Marty Supreme. The film continues to close the gap on Hamnet, and may end up starting the Oscars as the third-favorite for this award.

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🏆 Best Director Oscars odds

Projected winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (91%) - One Battle After Another

Anderson is one of the biggest favorites, and rightfully so. PTA has now earned either a writing or directing nomination for seven of the 10 films that he's directed. This includes four Best Director nominations, with his most recent coming in 2022 for Licorice Pizza. However, he has never won an Oscar.

That seems destined to change, as Anderson won Best Director at the Directors Guild of America Awards on Feb. 7. 11 of the last 12 DGA winners, including five consecutive, went on to win Best Director at the Oscars. Will Anderson make it six straight? I'd be shocked if he didn't.

Even after Sinners racked up 16 nominations, no director other than Anderson has a greater than 10% chance of winning this award.

For your consideration: Ryan Coogler - Sinners

Speaking of Coogler, he seems like the only one who can really pull off a surprise on Oscar Sunday. Though Sinners earned a record-breaking number of nominations, Coogler only has an 9% chance of winning Best Director. While Coogler's odds surged by more than 10% in the first few weeks following the Oscar nominations, they've reached their lowest point since late January to end February.

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🏆 Best Actor Oscars odds

Projected winner: Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme (31%)

When Chalamet lost Best Actor to Robert Aramayo at the BAFTAs, I didn't think it mattered all that much. Chalamet's odds to win dropped significantly after that loss, but Aramayo isn't nominated in this category, so what did the defeat really matter? However, after Michael B. Jordan's upset victory at the 32nd Actor Awards, there is a legitimate chance that Chalamet is going to lose this award.

Chalamet, whose odds reached nearly 80% in January, now has just a 31% chance to win this award. I'll still give him the edge here. After all, he's been an Academy favorite for years. At just 30 years old, he's already picked up three Best Actor nominations. He was previously nominated for Call Me by Your Name in 2018 and A Complete Unknown in 2025.

And while this loss may seem crippling to Chalamet, remember, he actually won the Actor Award last year, before losing to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. So perhaps voters chose to spread the love this year and honor Jordan, who they'd never honored before. Whatever the reason, I'll still back Chalamet, though this category just got a whole lot more interesting.

For your consideration: Michael B. Jordan- Sinners (59%)

For the longest time, it looked like this category was going to be between Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio. However, after his huge win at the Actor Awards, Jordan has now surged ahead as the favorite, with his odds sitting at 59% (-143).

Yet, while the guilds tend to be very accurate in predicting who will ultimately take home Oscars, Best Actor is the one category where things get a little messy. Just three of the last five actors to win Best Actor at the Actor Awards have gone on to win the Oscar, with Anthony Hopkins most notably pulling the upset over Chadwick Boseman in 2021. Jordan could absolutely win this award, but this is still too much of a coin flip for me to back him with his odds where they currently are.

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🏆 Best Actress Oscars odds

Projected winner: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet (96%)

There is really nothing to discuss here. Buckley is the biggest favorite of the night, and the current odds give her an 95% chance of winning. While Hamnet seems less likely to win major awards with each passing day, the momentum for Buckley has never wavered. She's taken home trophies from the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and most of the other major critic organizations, and it would be the biggest shock of the night if she lost.

For your consideration: Emma Stone - Bugonia (1%)

As I've said, Buckley is going to win. However, if the Oscars were going to see one of the biggest upsets of all time, my bet would be on Stone pulling it off. While Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve both have shorter odds to win than Stone, Stone is a two-time winner in this category, and we've seen her gain a lot of momentum in previous years after Oscar nominations were announced. Remember, in 2023, she wasn't expected to beat Lily Gladstone for her work in Killers of the Flower Moon until right before the ceremony.

But the Academy awarded Stone for her work in Poor Things, and they have another chance to reward her for a bizarre performance in a Yorgos Lanthimos film. Again, it's not going to happen, but with Bugonia unlikely to win any other awards, could we see the Oscars recognize the film by giving Stone the win? After all, we saw Olivia Colman take home Best Actress for Lanthimos' film The Favourite on a night when the movie didn't take home a single other award.

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🏆 Best Supporting Actor Oscars odds

Projected winner: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another (70%)

And just like that, Sean Penn is favored to win Best Supporting Actor. After Stellan Skarsgard won Best Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes, traders backed him to win the Oscar as well, as his odds skyrocketed as high at 69%. However, the momentum never felt fully justified, and now, after winning the BAFTA and the Actor, Penn has taken a commanding lead. His odds got as high as 77%, but they've since dropped to 70%.

Penn has won two Oscars (Mystic River and Milk). Heading into the 2009 Oscars, Penn didn't have much momentum, as Mickey Rourke had just defeated him at the Golden Globes for his role in The Wrestler. Yet, when the Oscars came around, the Academy ultimately went with a performance that showed off Penn's range. I wouldn't be surprised if they do the same here, after Penn was horrifying and hilarious in One Battle After Another.

For your consideration: Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value (20%)

Now that Penn has taken over as the favorite, there is finally value in backing Skarsgard to win his first Oscar. He's currently being given just a 20% chance to win this award. 

I've been backing Penn to win this category all awards season. That said, there are quite a few reasons to like Skarsgard here. First, Penn and his co-star Benicio del Toro could end up canceling each other out for their work in One Battle After Another. Second, if voters do elect to go with a more over-the-top performance, then Penn may end up splitting votes with Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein.

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🏆 Best Supporting Actress Oscars odds

Projected winner: Amy Madigan - Weapons (52%)

This is one of the most wide-open major categories in recent Oscar history. Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe to near lock status. However, Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA, closing the gap significantly. But then, there was another twist when Madigan won the Actor on Mar. 1. Because of that win, Madigan is now the favorite, though no actress has a greater than 52% chance to win, and three actresses have odds of 22% or greater. 

Madigan has won over 30 awards for her role as Aunt Gladys and received her first Oscar nomination since 1986. The Academy loves to reward veterans for their body of work when they finally get the chance, and there's no one else who fits that bill in this category.

The only thing that makes this an uphill battle for Madigan is that she's really only in one segment of the film. However, we've seen supporting Oscars go to roles like this in the past (Mahershala Ali in Moonlight). Additionally, Weapons simply isn't the same without Madigan. You could argue that she is the movie. The same can't be said for any of the other women in this category.

For your consideration: Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another (24%)

With Taylor's odds dropping significantly after two huge losses, there's finally value in backing her to win this award. In late January, she was being given a greater than 75% chance to win this award. Now, she has just a 24% chance.

I believe that the BAFTA results did nothing but overly inflate Mosaku's chances of winning. I really don't see her as much of a contender in this category, despite Sinners' wide appeal. So while that loss doesn't hurt Taylor, the loss at the Actor Awards is problematic. 15 of the last 16 Best Supporting Actress winners at the Oscars also won the Actor Award.

Still, that Golden Globe victory looms large. And Academy voters have shown in recent years that they're not opposed to one movie winning most awards at the Oscars. Last year, Anora won five of the six Oscars it was nominated for, and the year before, Oppenheimer won seven. In 2023, Everything Everywhere All at Once won seven Oscars, including three for acting. If One Battle After Another wins Best Picture and Best Director, as expected, then could Taylor ride that momentum and recent voting trends to a win? For these odds, it's worth at least exploring the idea.

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🏆 Which film will win the most Oscars?

Favorite: One Battle After Another (67%)

How many of the 13 Oscars it was nominated for will One Battler After Another win? Best Picture and Best Director seem like locks at this point. Penn has taken a commanding lead for Best Supporting Actor, and the film is a heavy favorite in Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, and Best Film Editing. Additionally, Taylor has a legitimate shot to win Best Supporting Actress.

With all of this in mind, the film seems like a lock to take home at least five awards, though unless Train Dreams pulls off the upset in Best Cinematography, One Battle After Another may be entering the Oscars ceremony with six locked up. If Taylor wins, that gives the film seven wins, and it would take a miracle for Sinners to win that many. Plus, One Battle After Another may even have a shot to upset Sinners in a category like Best Original Score.

For your consideration: Sinners (32%)

Now, what if everything goes wrong for One Battle After Another? When I say everything, I don't mean Best Picture or Best Director, which I feel are already locked up. But what if Penn loses to Skarsgard, Taylor loses to Mosaku, and Train Dreams wins Best Cinematography. Then One Battle After another would have only four wins.

Sinners is going to win Best Adapted Screenplay, and it is very likely to win Best Original Score. It's also favored in Best Casting, so the film is likely to enter the Oscars with three wins under its belt.

To overtake One Battle After Another, even in the film's worst-case scenario, Sinners would need to win two of the following three awards: Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Song. While Jordan is now favored, Mosaku and "I Lied to You" are both long shots in their respective categories. And even if Sinners wins all three awards, its ceiling on Oscar night is six. That feels like the floor for One Battle After Another.

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🖨️ Printable Oscars ballot 2026

Click the image below to download, print, and fill out our 2026 Oscars ballot. Compete against friends at your Oscars party on Sunday. Grade your score (out of 24), and the highest score(s) wins!

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What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2026 Grammy Awards?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple contracts. In the context of the 2026 Oscars, that could mean markets tied to questions like whether a specific film will win Best Picture or if a certain srtar takes home Best Actor.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think an artist will win and buy a “Yes” contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40 percent chance. If the artist wins, the contract settles at $1, netting 60 cents per share. If not, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the collective expectations of the crowd.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.

Why should I wager on the Oscars at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

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❓ Oscars FAQs

When are the Oscars?

The 2026 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 15, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.

Where are the Oscars?

The Oscars will likely be held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Who's hosting the Oscars?

Conan O'Brien will reprise his role as host for the 2026 Oscars.

How to watch the Oscars

The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.

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