🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: Best Bets for Flagg, Jokic & Banchero (April 8)
📡 SBR Edge: Flagg Heats Up vs. Suns in the Desert
My NBA player props tonight feature Paolo Banchero Under 23.5 points (-115), as this line is an overreaction to his recent performances. My next NBA best bet is Nikola Jokic Under 24.5 points (-110), who should play fewer minutes as a huge betting favorite tonight. I wrap up my top picks with Cooper Flagg Over 26.5 points (-107). He has been aggressive on offense, and that should continue tonight in Phoenix.
π Best NBA player props tonight: April 8
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero Under 23.5 points | -115 via DraftKings | 1.15u -> 1u | Line is an overreaction to recent games |
| Nikola Jokic Under 24.5 points | -110 via BetMGM | 1.1u -> 1u | Has gone Under in 5 of last 8 as a favorite |
| Cooper Flagg Over 26.5 points | -107 via BetRivers | 1.07u -> 1u | Has attempted 19+ shots in 5 straight games |
Total wagered: 3.32 units | Max profit: 3 units
π° Best NBA player prop bet tonight
The Magic are favored to qualify in the NBA Play-In Tournament odds.
Paolo Banchero Under 23.5 points (-115) vs. Timberwolves
This line is an overreaction to Banchero scoring 23 or more points in back-to-back games, including a 31-point outing against the Pistons on Monday. Entering Sunday, Banchero had scored 19 or fewer points in four straight games - and 11 or fewer three times in that span.
Banchero is averaging 22.3 points per game this season, and the Timberwolves are ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency - this line should be closer to 21.5. DraftKings lists his Under at 23.5 points (-115), but this bet is good up to -140 on the best sports betting sites.
π₯ More NBA player prop picks
The Nuggets have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Nikola Jokic Under 24.5 points (-110) vs. Grizzlies
I was hoping for a slightly higher line with Jokic coming off back-to-back games with 35 or more points, but there's still decent value at 23.5 (-110).
Jokic has scored 23 or fewer points in five of his last eight games as a favorite, and with the Nuggets listed as a 23-point betting favorite tonight, it's likely that Jokic will sit most of the fourth quarter if Denver is covering at the end of the third. His Under is listed at 24.5 points (-110) at BetMGM, but I would play this up to -130 on the best NBA betting sites.
Cooper Flagg Over 26.5 points (-107) at Suns
Flagg has been somewhat unlucky not to have scored 27+ points in five straight games. He has been aggressive enough - attempting 19 or more shots in each outing - but three poor shooting nights have made him less productive as a scorer.
We don't overreact to poor shooting nights, though - especially not from a generational talent like Flagg. He has still scored 45+ in two of his last three games and put up 27 against Phoenix the last time he faced it. BetRivers lists this at -107, but I would play it up to -125 on the best sports betting apps.
Cooper Flagg player prop trends
Hereβs a look at how Cooper Flagg has performed recently, as well as against the Suns:
| Bet type | Best odds | Last 5 games | Career vs. Suns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 26.5 points | -107 via BetRivers | 2-3 β | 1-1 β |
| Over 6.5 rebounds | -121 via Caesars | 3-2 β | 0-2 β |
| Over 4.5 assists | -134 via Caesars | 1-4 β | 1-1 β |
| Over 1.5 three-pointers made | +120 via BetMGM | 2-3 β | 1-1 β |
While Flagg has scored 25 points or fewer in three of his last five games, it wasnβt due to a lack of effort. He shot 36% or lower from the field in each of those games, which is unusual considering heβs shooting 47.1% on the season.
🏀 More NBA expert picks tonight
I feature De'Aaron Fox and Deni Avdija in my Trail Blazers vs. Spurs player props.
ποΈ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | Over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists | -125 |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | Over 14.5 points | -105 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | Clippers | Over 7.5 points | -110 |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | Under 25.5 points | -125 |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | Over 21.5 points | -105 |
π Best NBA parlay picks tonight
The more minutes Jokic plays, the more likely he is to score 24+ points. By parlaying Nuggets -23 with Jokic Under 23.5 points, we're increasing our payout while taking on very little extra risk. Bet365 is offering +310 on this two-legger, which is too high of a payout, as FanDuel is offering just +181 for the same parlay.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- Nikola Jokic Under 23.5 points
- Nuggets -23
Best odds: +310 via bet365 (0.32u -> 1u)
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 98-116-4 | -19.07 units β | -7.7% β |
| Player props | 90-93-4 | -21.84 units β | -9.2% β |
| Parlays | 7-23 | +1.27 units β | 13.1% β |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units β | 87% β |
π‘ How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
I'm allocating 3.32 units for the bets in this article, which is what I would usually risk on three player props.
While I'm confident in all of these bets directionally, they aren't priced too far from where I'd set them. If I thought I had a larger edge, I would risk up to 2.5 units per bet - or up to 5 units in a once-in-a-year type scenario. I treat 1 unit as 1% of my bankroll.
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