🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Picks for Thursday, May 7
📡 SBR Edge: LeBron Goes Over Again
My NBA player props tonight feature LeBron James Over 20.5 points (-125), as he has scored 25+ in five of his last six outings. My second NBA best bet is Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 points (-114). He has scored 24 or fewer points in six consecutive games. I wrap up my top picks with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points (-112), as the Lakers are doubling him immediately once he starts to dribble.
๐ Best NBA player props tonight: May 7
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| ๐ฐ Pick | ๐ก Best odds | โ๏ธ Bet size | ๐ง Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James Over 20.5 points | -125 via FanDuel | 1.25u -> 1u | Has scored 25+ points in 5 of his last 6 games |
| Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 points | -114 via DraftKings | 1.14u -> 1u | Has scored 24 or fewer points in 6 straight games |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points | -112 via DraftKings | 1.12u -> 1u | Lakers are double-teaming him after 1 dribble |
Total wagered: 3.51 units | Max profit: 3 units
๐ฐ Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
LeBron James Over 20.5 points (-125) at Thunder
Iโm not sure why the market has been so slow to react to James becoming more aggressive. James has scored 25+ points in five of the Lakersโ last six games, including 27 on Tuesday.
During the regular season, James was more willing to settle into a distributor role alongside Austin Reaves and without Luka Doncic, but the current game plan is obvious: get James into rhythm early. That approach was clear in Game 1, when he scored 12 first-quarter points.
FanDuel lists James Over 20.5 at -125, but I'd play this up to -145 on the best sports betting sites.
LeBron James player prop trends
Here's a look at how James has performed recently, as well as against the Thunder:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Thunder |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 20.5 points | -125 via FanDuel | 4-1 โ | 3-2 โ |
| Over 6.5 rebounds | -104 via FanDuel | 2-3 โ | 1-4 โ |
| Over 7.5 assists | -105 via DraftKings | 2-3 โ | 1-4 โ |
| Over 1.5 three-pointers made | +122 via FanDuel | 3-2 โ | 2-3 โ |
👑 More Lakers vs. Thunder picks
I feature a +526 same-game parlay in my Lakers vs. Thunder player props.
๐ฅ More NBA player prop picks
The Cavaliers have the fifth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 points (-114) at Pistons
I feel like this number is still being anchored too heavily to Mitchellโs regular-season production. His style of play just hasnโt translated into playoff success this year.
With officials allowing more contact, Mitchell has been held to 24 points or fewer in six straight games. I donโt expect his recent criticism of referees to earn him any more favorable whistles tonight. Mitchell Under 25.5 points is -114 at DraftKings, but I would play this up to -135 on the best NBA betting sites.
💸 More Cavaliers vs. Pistons props
I feature Donovan Mitchell and Duncan Robinson in my Cavaliers vs. Pistons player props for Game 2.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points (-112) vs. Lakers
My biggest takeaway from L.A.'s defensive game plan in Game 1 was how clearly they were committed to not letting Gilgeous-Alexander operate comfortably. They were sending a double team any time he put the ball on the floor.
Whether that approach ultimately paid off in a broader sense - Chet Holmgren stepped up offensively in response - it did hold Gilgeous-Alexander under 20 points for the first time this season. I expect more of the same tonight. His Under 29.5 points is -112 at DraftKings, but I'd be comfortable playing this up to -130 on the best sports betting apps.
🔮 Will the Thunder win the NBA championship?
Our Rob Paul breaks down the Thunder's odds to win outright in his NBA championship prediction.
๐๏ธ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Williams | Thunder | Under 4.5 points | -140 |
| Dean Wade | Cavaliers | Under 4.5 points | +100 |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | Under 16.5 points | -135 |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | Under 15.5 points | -120 |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | Over 6.5 assists | -120 |
๐ Best NBA parlay picks tonight
There's a large enough edge on Mitchell Under 24.5 points that you can combine it with a negatively correlated bet (Cavaliers +3.5) and there will still be value. Bet365 offers this parlay at +360, while FanDuel lists it at just +318.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- Cavaliers +3.5
- Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 points
Best odds: +360 via bet365 (0.28u -> 1u)
๐ก More NBA expert picks tonight
- NBA player props tonight
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons player props
- Lakers vs. Thunder player props
- NBA championship prediction
- NBA Finals MVP predictions
๐ต My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 172-183-4 | -5.71 units โ | -1.6% โ |
| Player props | 149-128-4 | -7.88 units โ | -2.4% โ |
| Parlays | 19-50 | +3.06 units โ | 14.5% โ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units โ | -13.1% โ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units โ | -4.1% โ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-57 | +11.33 units โ | 12.3% โ |
| Player props | 50-29 | +11.65 units โ | 15.4% โ |
| Parlays | 11-23 | +2.07 units โ | 21.1% โ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units โ | -52.5% โ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units โ | -4.1% โ |
๐ก How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
Weโre handicapping Game 2s in the conference semifinals, which means whatโs most important is how the players were used in their Game 1s. The next most important data weโre using is how players performed at the end of the first round. The beginning of the first round isnโt as relevant because coachesโ game plans change throughout a series, which is likely to happen when these matchups shift locations for Game 3.
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