🏀 Celtics vs. Spurs Player Props Tonight: Wemby Expert Pick
We're approaching tipoff as Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs get ready to host Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics tonight. With two of the three favorites to win the NBA Finals this season squaring off, I've analyzed the player prop markets and found two value bets worth playing.
My Celtics vs. Spurs player props tonight target Wembanyama and Tatum, with my NBA best bet focusing on the Spurs' star forward. All of my NBA picks are tracked, and my betting record is displayed below my Celtics vs. Spurs player props analysis. The Spurs have been a 3.5-point betting favorite all day, and tipoff from Frost Bank Center in San Antonio is slated for 8 p.m. ET (NBC, streaming on Peacock).
🏀 Best Celtics vs. Spurs player props tonight: NBA picks for March 10
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama, Spurs | Under 24.5 points (-122 via DraftKings) | 1.77u -> 1.5u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jayson Tatum, Celtics | Over 6.5 rebounds (-112 via DraftKings) | 1.12u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.89 units | Max profit: 2.5 units
💰 Best Celtics vs. Spurs prop bet
Victor Wembanyama is the betting favorite in our NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds.
Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 points (-122)
Wembanyama's median point total against the Celtics in his career is just 21, and now he's facing the first-ranked defense in the NBA after beating Boston 100-95 on Jan. 10.
Wembanyama scored just 21 points in that meeting and may even score under 20 tonight, with the Celtics motivated to avoid the season sweep. Boston allows the second-lowest 2-point percentage (50.4%), and 68.3% of Wembanyama's shot attempts this season have been inside the arc. DraftKings lists Wembanyama Under 24.5 points at -122, but this bet is good up to -150 at the best sports betting sites.
👽️ Victor Wembanyama player props!
Our senior analyst, Dustin Saracini, backs Wembanyama to go over his points with his NBA player props tonight.
🔥 More Celtics vs. Spurs prop picks
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Jayson Tatum Over 6.5 rebounds (-112)
This line is an overreaction to Tatum grabbing just three rebounds against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday. Tatum averaged one rebound every 4.18 minutes last season, so he was somewhat unlucky to grab only three against Cleveland (one rebound for every nine minutes).
He will only play more minutes moving forward and has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in each of his last two meetings with the Spurs. Tatum Over 6.5 rebounds is -112 at DraftKings, but I would play this at the best NBA betting sites up to -130.
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💡 How I'm betting Celtics vs. Spurs
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
I'm betting a total of 2.89 units on this game, which is slightly more than I would usually bet on two player props.
The big draw for me here is Wembanyama's points prop, as I believe it's set too high and the market is overvaluing him after three straight games of scoring 27 or more points. I expect this game to be a low-scoring, defensive battle, with the Celtics potentially pulling off the upset (or at the very least, keeping this game close).
💰️ Bankroll management in sports betting
LJ Blut shares his approach to bankroll management.
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 45-46-3 | +0.7 units ✅ | 0.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 44-38-3 | +2.04 units ✅ | 1.9% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units ❌ | -49.68% ❌ |
🚑 Celtics vs. Spurs injuries
📺 How to watch Celtics vs. Spurs
- Date: Tuesday, March 10
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | Over 17.5 points | -110 |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | Over 8.5 rebounds + assists | -105 |
| Devin Booker | Suns | Over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists | -120 |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | Under 22.5 points + rebounds + assists | -110 |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | Under 20.5 points + rebounds | -150 |
It makes sense that Jalen Duren Over 17.5 points is the most-bet player prop at BetMGM.
He has been on a tear since the All-Star break, scoring 24 or more points in six of nine games during that span. However, he has slowed down recently; I would jump on this number if it drops to 16.5.
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