🏀 Nuggets vs. Thunder Player Props Today: SGA Expert Pick
With Jamal Murray and Chet Holmgren still questionable, we focus on the former MVPs in this matchup. I've found a couple of mispriced lines in this game as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder today. The Thunder are a 6-point betting favorite over the Nuggets, with tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City set for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC Sports Network; streaming on Peacock).
My Nuggets vs. Thunder player props today feature two five-star plays - which is rare - on the two players most likely to win NBA MVP this season. All of my NBA best bets have been tracked, and my picks record is displayed under the analysis for today's player props.
🏀 Best Nuggets vs. Thunder player props today: NBA picks for March 9
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic, Nuggets | Under 27.5 points (-118 via DraftKings) | 1.77u -> 1.5u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder | Over 43.5 points + rebounds + assists (+100 via BetMGM) | 1.5u -> 1.5u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.27 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best Nuggets vs. Thunder prop bet
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points (-118)
Jokic has struggled to score against the Thunder this season, putting up 23 or fewer points in both meetings with Oklahoma City.
While two games is a small sample size, I don't believe this is noise, as the Thunder rank first in defensive efficiency in the NBA. Jokic went under this number in seven of 11 meetings with the Thunder last season, including the playoffs. DraftKings has Jokic Under 27.5 points at -118, but this bet is good up to -150 at the best sports betting sites.
🏀 Best NBA player props tonight!
Our senior analyst, Dustin Saracini, also features this Nikola Jokic bet in his NBA player props tonight.
🔥 More Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the betting favorite in our NBA MVP odds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 points + rebounds + assists (+100)
We cashed on Gilgeous-Alexander's Under points + rebounds prop on Saturday, but this is a completely different scenario today. Gilgeous-Alexander has totaled 48 or more points + rebounds + assists in both meetings with the Nuggets this season.
The Nuggets rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, and Gilgeous-Alexander should be motivated to stuff the stat sheet after scoring 27 or fewer points in back-to-back games. Gilgeous-Alexander is listed at +100 to go Over 43.5 P/R/A at BetMGM, but I would play this at the best NBA betting sites up to -120.
💸 Kawhi Leonard player props!
My Knicks vs. Clippers player props back Kawhi Leonard to make three triples tonight.
📈 My win/loss record: Updated March 9
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 43-44-3 | +0.87 units ✅ | 0.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 42-36-3 | +2.22 units ✅ | 2.2% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units ❌ | -49.68% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Nuggets vs. Thunder
I treat 1 unit as 1% of the total money I have set aside solely for sports betting. I've allocated 3.27 units for this game, which is more than I would usually risk on two player props.
The higher risk is due to how confident I am that both of these lines are mispriced today. I'm targeting these props because these teams play each other a lot - both being in the Northwest Division - and that makes their head-to-head history more predictive.
🚑 Nuggets vs. Thunder injuries
📺 How to watch Nuggets vs. Thunder
- Date: Monday, March 9
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: NBC Sports Network
- Streaming: Peacock
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here is my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | Over 11.5 rebounds + assists | -130 |
| Landry Shamet | Knicks | Over 8.5 points | -125 |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | Over 24.5 points + assists | -115 |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists | -105 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | Over 14.5 rebounds + assists | -120 |
Brandin Podziemski to go Over his rebounds and assists was given out by a tout, which is likely why it's the most-bet NBA player prop at BetMGM.
While that tout allegedly lost over 70 units in February, I do like this bet directionally. Podziemski has cleared this total in six of his eight games since the All-Star break.
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