🏀 Warriors vs. Suns Player Props: NBA Picks & Best Bets (April 17)
The 10th-place Golden State Warriors and 7th-place Phoenix Suns clash in the NBA Play-In Tournament on Friday night, with a first-round date against the Oklahoma City Thunder awaiting the winner, who will become the West’s 8 seed. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET (streaming on Prime Video) at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix.
Seventh-place teams have punched their playoff ticket in every NBA Play-In Tournament to date, which goes a long way toward explaining why the Suns are a 3-point betting favorite. But my Warriors vs. Suns player props have identified value fading a pair of Suns starters as part of Friday’s NBA picks and best bets.
🏀 Best Warriors vs. Suns player props: NBA picks for April 17
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green, G, Suns | Under 8.5 rebounds + assists (-130 via bet365) | 1.3u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Mark Williams, C, Suns | Under 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-112 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.3 units | Max profit: 1.89 units
💰 Best Warriors vs. Suns prop bet
The Suns are the least likely team to win the NBA Finals.
Jalen Green Under 8.5 rebounds + assists (-130)
Jalen Green delivered in Phoenix's first play-in matchup, leading the team with 35 points (on 29 shots) in 39 minutes. Even with that impressive performance, Green posted a minus-5 point differential in the game.
Last year's Round 1 series against the Warriors highlighted Green's weaknesses on the big stage, prompting the Rockets to trade him. I'm sure he'll be motivated to send a message, but that always seems to come with his scoring. He lacks much production in rebounds and assists, which is why he's failed to clear this combo line in 25 of his 33 games this season.
Most of the best NBA betting sites list this prop at 7.5, so I'm pouncing on this Under at bet365 for my favorite Warriors vs. Suns prop bet.
🏀 More Jalen Green player props
Our Corey Scott backs Jalen Green to score 19+ points with his Warriors vs. Suns prediction.
Jalen Green player prop trends
Here’s a look at how Jalen Green has performed recently, as well as against the Warriors:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Warriors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 points | -118 via FanDuel | 3-2 ✅ | 0-5 ❌ |
| Over 4.5 rebounds | -106 via FanDuel | 1-4 ❌ | 3-2 ✅ |
| Over 3.5 assists | +118 via DraftKings | 2-3 ❌ | 1-4 ❌ |
| Over 7.5 rebounds + assists | -118 via FanDuel | 2-3 ❌ | 3-2 ✅ |
Green’s last five games against the Warriors came in last season’s playoffs, when he was with the Rockets.
🔥 More Warriors vs. Suns prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Mark Williams Under 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-112)
Suns center Mark Williams has seen his role decrease over the past two months. Since Feb. 11, Williams is averaging 8.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 0.5 assists in 20.9 minutes per game. He's only cleared this combo line five times across his past 12 outings.
The first play-in game was no different, as Williams finished with four points, four rebounds, and two assists in 22 minutes against the Trail Blazers. The Suns favored backup center Oso Ighodaro (plus-3 in 23 minutes), and I expect that to be the case again on Friday. Ighodaro has a better chance of slowing down the Warriors' superior post players.
This total is trading at 17.5 across the board at the best sports betting sites, but I like the -112 value at bet365 for the Under.
🚀 Warriors vs. Suns same-game parlay
In addition to my player props, my Warriors vs. Suns parlay is counting on Devin Booker finishing with 25-plus points. Portland held Booker to 22 points, but he's averaging nearly 30 points per game since March 5.
Booker has reached 25-plus points in all three meetings with the Warriors this season.
💵 Warriors vs. Suns SGP picks
- Jalen Green Under 8.5 rebounds + assists (-130)
- Mark Williams Under 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-112)
- Devin Booker 25-plus points (-200)
Best odds: +370 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.37u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 28.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-14 | -3.92 units ❌ | -29.1% ❌ |
| Player props | 4-8 | -2.65 units ❌ | -22.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-5 | -0.27 units ❌ | -45.3% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Warriors vs. Suns
Now that we have essentially reached the postseason, the most important part of handicapping these games comes down to predicting rotation patterns. A player's role could be reduced or increased due to matchups, creating value from a betting perspective.
In this case, I'm betting against Williams' role due to the length of the Warriors frontcourt. He's shown signs of losing his minutes already, so I'm expecting a quick hook if Golden State has too much success scoring on him at the rim.
I'm also betting against Green on an inflated prop. There could be more defense on display in a do-or-die matchup Friday night.
🚑 Warriors vs. Suns injuries
📺 How to watch Warriors vs. Suns
- Date: Friday, April 17
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: Prime Video
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