🏀 Warriors vs. Thunder Player Props Tonight: SGA Goes Under
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back for his fourth game after missing most of February with an abdominal strain, as the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Golden State Warriors tonight. With Chet Holmgren (illness) sidelined, the market has overreacted, creating a few opportunities in Gilgeous-Alexanderβs player-prop markets.
My Warriors vs. Thunder player props tonight include an Under on Gilgeous-Alexander as my top NBA pick for Saturday, plus a points prop on Brandin Podziemski. The Thunder are listed as a 13.5-point betting favorite, with tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City slated for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
π Best Warriors vs. Thunder player props tonight: NBA picks for March 7
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder | Under 35.5 points + rebounds (-105 via DraftKings) | 1.58u -> 1.5u | βββββ |
| Brandin Podziemski, Warriors | Over 15.5 points (-121 via Caesars) | 1.21u -> 1u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 2.79 units | Max profit: 2.5 units
π° Best Warriors vs. Thunder prop bet
The Thunder are the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 35.5 points + rebounds (-105)
It's probably not safe to assume that Gilgeous-Alexander is back to being 100 percent healthy. He has played just three games since returning from injury and has recorded 34 or fewer points + rebounds in back-to-back outings.
It's not like those games were blowouts either. The Thunder held on for a three-point win over the New York Knicks and beat the Dallas Mavericks by 13. Tonight's matchup, though, is the perfect scenario for Gilgeous-Alexander to sit the fourth. DraftKings has Gilgeous-Alexander Under 35.5 P/R at -105, but I would play it at the best sports betting sites up to -130.
π₯ More Warriors vs. Thunder prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Brandin Podziemski Over 15.5 points (-121)
Podziemski is starting to thrive on the short-handed Warriors. He has scored 22 or more points in two straight games. Over a larger sample, he has cashed this prop in five of his last six outings.
He struggled from the field at the beginning of February, but he has now become more comfortable with his increased role. He has attempted 18 shots in each of his last two games while hitting 52.8% from the field. Caesars lists Podziemski Over 15.5 points at -121, but this bet is good up to -140 at any of the best NBA betting sites.
π My win/loss record: Updated March 7
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units β | -49.68% β |
| Player props | 40-34-3 | +2.53 units β | 2.7% β |
| Overall | 41-42-3 | +1.19 units β | 1.2% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Warriors vs. Thunder
For my bankroll strategy, I treat 1 unit as 1% of the money I've set aside exclusively for sports betting. I've allocated 2.79 units for this game - which is more than I typically would bet on two player props - because I'm confident that Gilgeous-Alexander's P/R line is too high.
I'm expecting the Thunder to rout the Warriors tonight, and while that's a positive outcome for my Gilgeous-Alexander bet, it's not great for my Podziemski prop. However, Podziemski has a solid chance of scoring 16 or more points in the first three quarters if he plays.
💰️ What does bankroll mean in sports betting?
LJ Blut shares his approach to bankroll management.
π Warriors vs. Thunder injuries
πΊ How to watch Warriors vs. Thunder
- Date: Saturday, March 7
- Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: ABC
π€ NBA most-bet teams to cover tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| By % of bets ποΈ | By % of handle π° |
|---|---|
| Clippers -6.5 | Clippers -6.5 |
| Timberwolves -6.5 | Hawks -5.5 |
| Warriors +19.5 | Pistons -14.5 |
Clippers -6.5 and Warriors +19.5 aren't available anymore, as the Clippers are now a 7.5-point betting favorite, and the Warriors' line has moved to +13.5 as the injury report updates throughout the day.
While the Warriors' spread is too low to bet now, there may still be some value on the Clippers, who have covered five in a row and held a 25-point lead over the San Antonio Spurs on Friday (before collapsing in the second half).
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