🏀 Arizona State vs. Virginia Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness First Four (March 19)

Thursday's First Four matchup will be a significant one for Arizona State and Virginia. It marks the first NCAA Tournament berth for either team this decade, as Virginia hasn't been here since 2018 and Arizona State is dancing for the first time since 2019.

With the Cavaliers priced as a short favorite in this fun women's March Madness battle, I've found a few different angles to back the better team. Check it out in my Arizona State vs. Virginia prediction as part of our women's March Madness odds and picks.

Tipoff is 9 p.m. ET at the Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa, on ESPN2.

🏀 Arizona State vs. Virginia picks & odds: Women's March Madness First Four

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: 2.1 units

🏆 Who will win Arizona State vs. Virginia?

I predict Virginia will defeat Arizona State by six points in their First Four matchup on Thursday. The Cavaliers have lost three in a row (their longest skid of the year) entering this game, but they are the favorites for a reason. Their net rating (+15.4) is nearly twice Arizona State's (+7.9).

Score prediction: Virginia 66, Arizona State 60

💰 Arizona State vs. Virginia prediction & best bet

Virginia ML (-142)

Arizona State has been quite the storyline this season, going from 10-22 last year to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019 under first-year head coach Molly Miller. However, I think the narrative has created some value for the Cavaliers.

ESPN's BPI has Virginia winning by 6.6 points and projects a 73.3% chance of victory. At -142, the Cavaliers have an implied probability of 56.68%. Even if the projection is a tad optimistic, it's telling that UVA is a short favorite after dropping three in a row entering this matchup.

While Virginia's moneyline is worth a full-unit play, I thought it'd be fun to take advantage of the winning-margin props available at BetMGM. Given the low total (126.5), I have a hard time seeing Virginia win by more than 10 points. That's why I felt it was worth a sprinkle on two different bands in hopes of maximizing my ROI.

💡 How I'm betting Arizona State vs. Virginia: Women's March Madness 

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

It's true that Virginia has lost three games in a row, but there is a chance that it is due for some positive shooting regression. The Cavaliers shot 27% or worse from 3-point range in two of those defeats, compared to a 32% clip for the season. They also shot below their season-average on 2-pointers (50.2%) in two of their three losses.

As a result, I think the market has provided a buy-low spot on Virginia. But rather than just take the moneyline value straight up, I like the juicy payouts via the winning margin market. Because the total is so low, it seems unlikely that either team will run away with this game on Thursday.

📊 Live Arizona State vs. Virginia odds: Women's March Madness First Four

The betting odds haven't moved much as of this writing, with Virginia still listed as a 2.5-point favorite and the total holding steady at 126.5.

Based on the public betting splits, which are tilted in favor of UVA, I wouldn't be surprised to see the spread climb a bit before tipoff.

📺 How to watch Arizona State vs. Virginia: Women's March Madness First Four

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
• TV: ESPN2
• Streaming: ESPN App