🏀 Baylor vs. Houston Prediction Tonight: Why the Under is the Sharp Bet
No. 7 Houston (24-5) looks to regain momentum as the regular season winds down. The Cougars, coming off a 40-point win that snapped a three-game losing streak, have a favorable schedule this week, starting with their home finale against Baylor (15-14) tonight. Tipoff from the Fertitta Center in Houston is set for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
My Baylor vs. Houston prediction tonight anticipates the Cougars sticking to their strengths, which is why Iām projecting a low-scoring affair in Houston.
š Baylor vs. Houston picks & odds tonight: March 4
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Houston -15 (-110 via Caesars) | 0.5u -> 0.45u | āāā |
| Over/Under total | Under 142 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | āāāā |
| Player prop bet | Kingston Flemings Under 18.5 points (-120 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 0.83u | āāāā |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.19 units
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š° Baylor vs. Houston prediction & best bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Under 142 (-110)
The last time these two teams faced off, Houston stymied Baylor in a 77-55 road victory on Jan. 10. The Bears averaged 0.89 points per possession, finishing 8-for-22 on 2-pointers and 7-of-19 from 3-point range.
I don't envision the rematch in Houston going much differently. The Cougars are sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. They want to play in the mud, particularly at home where they have an 11-4 clip to the Under.
There is a reason why this total is listed 141.5 across the board. I'll take the lone 142 at Caesars.
Score prediction: Houston 77, Baylor 60
š„ Best Baylor vs. Houston player prop bet
Our Mike Spector features more NCAAM picks worth tailing in his college basketball predictions tonight.
Kingston Flemings Under 18.5 points (-120)
Houston freshman guard Kingston Flemings didn't do too much in his first matchup against Baylor. He finished with 10 points on 5-of-9 shooting in 26 minutes of action.
It's not that I think the Bears have the personnel to slow anyone down, but I like the Under on Flemings' points prop again in a potential blowout. It certainly doesn't hurt that he's only cleared this line twice in his past nine games. He's averaged 14 points per contest over that span.
This line is as low as 17.5 at FanDuel, which highlights the deal that BetMGM is providing at 18.5. I'd play this down to 17.5, but only for 0.5 units.
š Baylor vs. Houston same-game parlay
Mike Spector breaks down another SGP with over +400 odds in his Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction.
I'm putting all three predictions in my Baylor vs. Houston same-game parlay, banking on Houston pulling away in a low-scoring matchup. I like this SGP because not all these legs are correlated, which helped boost the value to +475 at Caesars.
💵 Baylor vs. Houston SGP picks
- Under 142 (-110)
- Houston -15 (-110)
- Kingston Flemings Under 18.5 points (-124)
Best odds: +475 via Caesars (0.1u -> 0.47u)
š” How I'm betting Baylor vs. Houston
Well, I'm betting against fun in tonight's Baylor vs. Houston matchup. I've taken the Under on the full-game total as well as Flemings' scoring line, meaning I'll root against baskets.
In my defense, that's not a bad strategy when watching Houston games. The Cougars are 17-12 to the Under this year, marking the fourth-best rate in the Big 12. They were 23-15-2 (61.8%) to the Under last year.
We might as well make some money off these rock fights, right?
š Live Baylor vs. Houston odds
Unsurprisingly, the total has dropped since opening at 143.5. The spread has also moved in Houston's favor after opening at 14.5. Both adjustments make sense to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if they move further that way before tipoff.
š Baylor vs. Houston betting trends
| Baylor | Statistic | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 15-14 | W-L record | 24-5 |
| 12-16 | ATS record | 15-14 |
| 15-13 | O/U record | 12-17 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
šŗ How to watch Baylor vs. Houston
- Date: Wednesday, March 4
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Fertitta Center (Houston)
- TV: ESPN2
š¤ College basketball conference tournament betting insights
Betting insights via BetMGM.
Most-bet teams to win their tournament
| By ticket % šļø | By handle % š° |
|---|---|
| Charleston Southern +2000 (Big South) | Navy -190 (Patriot League) |
| Robert Morris +275 (Horizon League) | Robert Morris +275 (Horizon League) |
| Merrimack +250 (MAAC) | McNeese +105 (Southland) |
| Appalachian St. +500 (Sun Belt) | Tennessee St. +190 (Ohio Valley) |
| Belmont +160 (Missouri Valley) | Charleston Southern +2000 (Big South) |
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