College Basketball Predictions & Best Bets Tonight: ATS Picks and Prop Bets (Wednesday, Feb. 11)

Following a chaotic Monday and Tuesday where four top-11 teams fell, the madness is heating up, but my college basketball predictions and best bets today expect No. 2 Michigan to avoid the upset bug and cruise past Northwestern as the slate's highest-ranked team.

Tonight’s college basketball player props back two elite scorers to stay hot. Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz and Tennessee freshman Nate Ament are primed to exploit struggling defenses in pivotal conference matchups.

Don't miss our Florida vs. Georgia prediction or UConn vs. Butler prediction for the primetime matchups on national TV tonight.

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Michigan vs. Northwestern prediction: Michigan -15.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

With Arizona and Duke both losing in the last few days, Michigan is the March Madness odds favorite. The Wolverines are the top team by most metrics, as the only program in the country ranked top five in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Dusty May's team has been a defensive juggernaut, holding its last eight Big Ten opponents to fewer than 73 points. Only one of those eight opponents, top 10 Nebraska, lost by fewer than double digits.

Michigan's outscoring conference opponents by an average margin of 16.3 points. Northwestern is 1-3 ATS against ranked teams.

New Mexico vs. Grand Canyon prediction: New Mexico ML (+105 via BetMGM)

A potential Cinderella this March is New Mexico. In Eric Olen's first season at the helm, the Lobos are No. 2 in PPG in Mountain West play (81.1) and rank in the top 50 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The freshman trio of Jake Hall, Uriah Tenette, and Tomislav Buljan is combining for 41.6 PPG against Mountain West opponents and helped beat Grand Canyon by 23 a month ago.

The Lopes, who are a 1.5-point betting favorite, have failed to cover in two of their last four games, losing two of them outright.

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Iowa vs. Maryland prediction: Bennett Stirtz 4+ made 3-pointers (+225 via FanDuel) 

Although Iowa has yet to beat a ranked opponent this season, head coach Ben McCollum has reinvigorated the program thanks to an offense ranked top 20 in the country. Leading the charge has been Bennett Stirtz, who's top five in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (40.5%).

The Drake transfer has been especially hot lately against lesser conference foes. In his last three games, he's shot 12-for-20 from deep (60%).

Stirtz will be a tough matchup for a Maryland team that's allowing the highest 3-point percentage in Big Ten play (41.3%) and giving up the third-most threes (9.8).

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State prediction: Nate Ament Over 19.5 points (+105 via BetMGM) 

After a sporadic start, Nate Ament has emerged as yet another potential top 10 NBA draft pick from this historically dominant freshman class. The 6-foot-10 frosh has been one of the best players in the SEC as of late, averaging 23.8 PPG over his last seven games.

He's clearly been given the green light by Rick Barnes during his hot stretch, averaging 15.6 field goal attempts and 9.3 free throw attempts.  

Mississippi State's defense is ranked outside the top 60 in the country in adjusted efficiency and is allowing 82.2 PPG in SEC play.

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