🏀 Dayton vs. VCU Prediction & Parlay: Today's Atlantic 10 Championship Odds & Picks
Yesterday's thrilling action has set up a shocking A10 Championship between No. 4 Dayton and No. 2 VCU, with tipoff from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh slated for 1 p.m. ET, airing on CBS. VCU is a 3.5-point betting favorite.
The Rams swept the regular-season meetings, but my Dayton vs. VCU prediction calls for a tight game today. Dayton's only two losses since a four-game skid in late January are both to VCU, going 9-2 in that span, but I think it can limit one of VCU's scoring leaders.
Brackets will be set today, it's finally Selection Sunday. But conference tournaments will still have a say in some automatic bids, and we're covering all of the day's action with our college basketball conference tournament guide.
🏀 Dayton vs. VCU picks & odds: Atlantic 10 Championship (March 15)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML/ATS pick | Dayton +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| O/U pick | Under 140.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop pick | Jadrian Tracey Under 9.5 points (-112 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.71 units
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💰 Dayton vs. VCU prediction & best bet
Dayton +3.5 (-110)
Dayton’s two losses to VCU have been by a combined 32 points, but the Flyers showed much better at home in the six-point loss in the regular-season finale.
The Flyers utilized their zone pressure which morphs into an amoeba 1-3-1 very well in the rematch, with the biggest difference being that they kept VCU off the offensive glass. The Rams had an 11% lower offensive rebounding rate in the second meeting.
I’m also selling high on VCU after cruising by 13 yesterday, as Saint Joseph’s deploys way more drop coverage defensively (which the Rams pummel) than does Dayton.
Score prediction: VCU 68 - Dayton 67
🔎 VCU vs. Dayton betting insights
Over at BetMGM, the action is heavy tilted toward VCU, with 73% of the handle and 59% of the bets on the Rams covering the spread.
This game has the third-most ticketed game of the day, with VCU -3.5 the fourth-most written ticket and third-most handle, the Dayton moneyline the fourth-most written moneyline ticket of the day, and the VCU moneyline the second-highest handle.
🔥 Best Dayton vs. VCU player prop bet
Jadrian Tracey Under 9.5 points (-112)
Jadrian Tracey is one of three Rams players averaging in double figures (10.1 points per game). But I am expecting Dayton to hold him to single digits again, just like it did when it stymied him for six points in the rematch after he went off for a game-high 26 points in the first meeting.
Including yesterday’s win where they limited a potent Saint Louis offense to 69 points, the Flyers are 9-2 in their last 11 games, and have held opponents under 1.1 points per possession in all nine wins. They nearly made it six wins in that span keeping opponents under one point per possession after the Billikens averaged 1.01 yesterday.
Dayton has elite length at the wing spots, and I expect that versatility to limit Tracey’s shot attempts, after he ranked ninth in percentage of his team’s shots taken in conference play.
🚀 Dayton vs. VCU same-game parlay
Though I am missing out on the best point spread number by a half-point, bet365 is my go-to sports book for this same-game parlay, as it offered the most extensive player prop catalogue and the best number on the total. This is an extensively pro-Dayton SGP, riding its top-25 adjusted defensive efficiency (and the Atlantic 10's best) since the start of February.
💵 Dayton vs. VCU SGP picks
- Dayton +3 (-110)
- Under 140.5 (-116)
- Jadrian Tracey Under 9.5 points (-112)
Best odds: +573 via bet365 (1u -> 5.73u)
💡 How I'm betting Dayton vs. VCU
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Dayton is not only one of the best defensive teams in the country since the start of February, but its offense has been relentlessly attacking with a top-4 free throw rate nationally in that span.
The Flyers also have nearly as many Wins Above the Bubble (WAB) as VCU in that stretch (plus-1.4 compared to plus-1.9), so I am comfortable throwing out what happened in the two regular-season meetings and backing all three of my plays above with one unit.
📊 Live Dayton vs. VCU odds: Atlantic 10 Championship
The point spread has bounced all over the place across our best sports betting sites, especially at bet365, as sharps and the public seem split. There have been countless fluctuations between -2.5 and -3.5, and with the amount of buyback at each number, the game should tip with a point spread in that range.
Given that Dayton is one of the most profitable teams to the Under in the country (11-22 O/U record), it wasn’t surprising to see the total plummet initially from an opening number of 141.5 to as low as 139.5. But there must have been some respected buyback on the Over for it to tick back up to 140.5, even with 56% of the wagers supporting the Over.
📈 Dayton vs. VCU betting trends
| Dayton | Statistic | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| 23-10 | W-L record | 26-7 |
| 15-18 | ATS record | 16-17 |
| 11-22 | O/U record | 15-18 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
📺 How to watch Dayton vs. VCU: Atlantic 10 Championship
- Date: Sunday, March 15
- Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Paramount+
✅ Conference tournament expert picks
- Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas SEC Championship prediction
- Dayton vs. VCU A10 Championship prediction
- Wichita State vs. South Florida American Championship prediction
- Purdue vs. Michigan Big Ten Championship prediction
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