🏀 Idaho vs. Houston Prediction: March Madness Picks & Odds for Round 1 (March 19)
No. 2 Houston Cougars begins its push to improve on last year's runner-up finish with a first-round matchup against No. 15 Idaho Vandals, closing out Thursday's 16-game slate. Tipoff is set for 10:10 p.m. ET at Paycom Center on truTV.
My best Idaho vs. Houston prediction doesn't expect the Vandals to put up much of a fight as part of our March Madness predictions. I'm backing the Cougars on the spread and adding a player prop on an Idaho big man who figures to be overmatched by Houston's physicality on the glass.
π Idaho vs. Houston picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS/ML pick | Houston -23.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.91u | βββ |
| O/U pick | Over 136 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | βββ |
| Player prop pick | Jackson Rasmussen Under 5.5 rebounds (-135 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.74u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.56 units
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π Who will win Idaho vs. Houston?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Houston holds the strongest national title odds among all No. 2 seeds, and there's little reason to expect trouble here against an Idaho squad that faced only one KenPom top-110 opponent all season.
Score prediction: Houston 83, Idaho 57
π° Idaho vs. Houston prediction & best bet
Houston -23.5 (-110)
At one point in the season, Idaho was sitting at 14-13, two games under .500 in the conference (6-8), and hadnβt won more than two games in a row.
The Vandals get next to nothing offensively inside the arc, ranking ninth among Big Sky teams in the percentage of points coming from 2-point range.
If they can get hot from deep - where they attempt a league-high 45.5% of their shots - they could hang around with Houston. But to do that, theyβll need to force the Cougars' defense to shift and rotate, something Idaho may struggle with given its bottom-25 assist rate nationally.
π₯ Best Idaho vs. Houston player prop bet
Jackson Rasmussen Under 5.5 rebounds (-135)
Many may think the Vandals have a chance to make this a tight contest because of what appears to be competitive rebounding metrics.
Idaho is the fifth-best defensive rebounding team in the country, but peeling back the layers reveals that the Big Sky ranked third-worst among all conferences in offensive rebounding rate.
The only team that the Vandals played that ranked inside the top-100 in offensive rebounding rate was Sam Houston State, and they were out-rebounded by 12 in that non-conference tilt.
Jackson Rasmussen only had a 6.1% offensive rebounding rate and an 11.4% defensive rebounding rate in five games against βTier Bβ opponents, per KenPom. The physicality against a Houston team will be too much to overcome to exceed the projected total for just the second time in the last five games.
π Idaho vs. Houston same-game parlay
Houston hasn't been the same elite defensive team it was under the last two seasons under Kelvin Sampson, "falling" out of the top-2 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the first time since 2024.
But it should have more than enough offensively to cover the big spread, while doing its part to cash the Over. The key piece is the Cougars hitting the offensive glass hard enough to keep Rasmussen under his projected rebounding total.
💵 Idaho vs. Houston SGP picks
- Houston -23.5 (-116)
- Over 136 (-116)
- Jackson Rasmussen Under 5.5 rebounds (-135)
Best odds: +504 via bet365 (1u -> 5.04u)
π΅ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | +8.10 units β | 21.3% β |
| Game picks | 14-13 | -0.6 units β | -57.8% β |
| Player props | 8-3 | +8.70 units β | 79.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Idaho vs. Houston: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Though the Rasmussen player prop is my only 4-star wager, all three are one-unit plays despite likely being on the public side with Houston.
Kelvin Sampson is 6-2 ATS in his last eight Round of 64 matchups, based on March Madness betting trends, while the Over has cashed in six of Houston's nine neutral site games this year.
π Live Idaho vs. Houston odds: March Madness First Round
There was a bit of reverse line movement at BetMGM, suggesting sharp action, as Houston dipped from -24.5 to -23.5. But that could also have been due to having a different number from the rest of the market, as the best sports betting sites that opened at -22.5 were bet up to -23.5.
The ceiling for the Over seems to be 136.5, as every top sports betting site that hit that number has been bet down to 136, while never reaching 137.
π Idaho vs. Houston betting trends
| Idaho | Statistic | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 21-14 | Record | 28-6 |
| 16-16 | ATS record | 16-18 |
| 13-19 | O/U record | 14-20 |
| 145th | KenPom ranking | 5th |
| 108.8 (176th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 124.9 (14th) |
| 107.3 (136th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 91.4 (5th) |
πΊ How to watch Idaho vs. Houston: March Madness First Round
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: Max
π More March Madness predictions
Here is a look at all of our March Madness experts' coverage of the NCAA Tournament:
First-round matchups & previews
| East Region | West Region | South Region | Midwest Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU vs. Ohio State (3/19) | High Point vs. Wisconsin (3/19) | PVAM vs. Lehigh (3/18) | Miami (OH) vs. SMU (3/18) |
| South Florida vs. Louisville (3/19) | Hawaii vs. Arkansas (3/19) | Troy vs. Nebraska (3/19) | Howard vs. Michigan (3/19) |
| Siena vs. Duke (3/19) | Texas vs. BYU (3/19) | McNeese vs. Vanderbilt (3/19) | Saint Louis vs. Georgia (3/19) |
| ND State vs. Michigan St. (3/19) | Kennesaw St. vs. Gonzaga (3/19) | VCU vs. UNC (3/19) | Santa Clara vs. Kentucky (3/20) |
| N. Iowa vs. St. John's (3/20) | LIU vs. Arizona (3/20) | Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's (3/19) | Akron vs. Texas Tech (3/20) |
| UCF vs. UCLA (3/20) | Utah State vs. Villanova (3/20) | Penn vs. Illinois (3/19) | Wright St. vs. Virginia (3/20) |
| Cal Baptist vs. Kansas (3/20) | Queens vs. Purdue (3/20) | Idaho vs. Houston (3/19) | Tenn. State vs. Iowa State (3/20) |
| Furman vs. UConn (3/20) | Missouri vs. Miami (3/20) | Iowa vs. Clemson (3/20) | Hofstra vs. Alabama (3/20) |
| TBD vs. Florida (3/20) | TBD vs. Tennessee (3/20) |
Bracket picks & odds analysis
| Article type | Expert analysis |
|---|---|
| Bracket Picks | Expert Bracket Picks | AI Bracket Predictions | Sleepers & Value Picks | Upset Predictions |
| Region Previews | East | West | South | Midwest |
| Odds & Futures | Tournament Odds | Final Four Odds | MVP Odds | MVP Predictions |
| Betting Guides | March Madness Betting Guide | Rosters by State & Country | Coach ATS Index | Prop Bets Guide |
| Women's Tournament | Women's Predictions & Odds | Women's Odds & Favorites |
| NIT | NIT Predictions & Odds | NIT Odds & Favorites | Free Printable NIT Bracket |
| Pools & Strategy | Calcutta Picks & Rankings | What is a Calcutta? | Survivor Guide | What is a Survivor Pool? | How to Fill Out a Bracket |
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