🏀 Kentucky vs. Florida Prediction: SEC Tournament Quarterfinal Odds & Picks (March 13)

Defending SEC and NCAA Tournament champion Florida looks to start the path to a second straight conference tournament title as the No. 1 seed when it faces No. 9 seed Kentucky in the SEC quarterfinals today. Tipoff from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. is set for 1 p.m. ET (ESPN), with the Gators listed as the 11.5-point betting favorite.

My Kentucky vs. Florida prediction backs the well-rested Gators against a Wildcats team at a big disadvantage with having to play each of the last two days. I also expect Florida to use its size and ride the hot streak of forward Alex Condon.

Our Rob Paul covers all the action with his conference tournament guide, and don't miss my college basketball predictions for today's slate.

🏀 Kentucky vs. Florida picks & odds: SEC Tournament Quarterfinal (March 13)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.76 units

💰 Kentucky vs. Florida prediction & best bet

Florida -11.5 (-104)

Florida enters amid an 11-game winning streak, including two wins by an average of eight points against Kentucky. While those are the only two games in that span that the Gators didn’t win by 13-plus, this being the Wildcats’ third game in three days has me backing the favorite.

In the first meeting, Florida’s Xavian Lee and Urban Klavzar combined to shoot 9-of-18 from 3-point range. The Gators also shot 44.4% from beyond the arc in the regular season finale, and are now 16-0 with 13 double-digit wins when they top at least 30% from 3-point range.

Score prediction: Florida 86 - Kentucky 71

🔥 Best Kentucky vs. Florida player prop bet

Alex Condon Over 15.5 points (-112)

Florida forward Alex Condon has scored at least 20 points in four of the last six games, after reaching that mark just twice in 19 games prior. Thus, I am riding Condon’s hot streak even though he has scored 14 points apiece in both games versus Kentucky, with his 103 and 105 offensive ratings in those games (per KenPom) being his second and third-worst in the last seven games.

Playing time is not an issue for the forward, as he ranks 24th in percentage of his team’s minutes in SEC play. 

Conversely, the Gators have gotten Malachi Moreno in foul trouble this year, with the Wildcats center totaling nine fouls in those games. That has forced Mark Pope to play smaller than he typically wants to, and that should again lead to more opportunities for Condon inside.

🚀 Kentucky vs. Florida same-game parlay

Even though the total of 160.5 is better as an Under backer at FanDuel, its O/U for Condon's points is slightly higher at 16.5. That is why I am making this same-game parlay wager at bet365, to take advantage of the better player prop odds, even though the juice for the point spread and total are slightly higher at -116.

💡 How I'm betting Kentucky vs. Florida

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Florida is just 3-5 ATS with a rest advantage over its opponents, but it hasn't found itself in a scenario where it had five days off while facing a team playing for the third time in three days. That is why the Gators' 14-4 ATS record in conference games this season, and perfect 3-0 ATS sweep in last year's SEC Tournament matters more, and is the foundation of my Kentucky vs. Florida best bet.

I would not put anyone off backing Kentucky first half spread of +6.5, as Florida's depth and rest advantage should play out more in the second half. Be sure to have your live second half bets ready to fire at the first glimpse of Florida pulling away.

📊 Live Kentucky vs. Florida odds: SEC Tournament Semifinal

Several of our best sports betting sites, like bet365, opened last night at Florida -10.5. While there was some initial buyback on the underdogs when the line got to -11, it eventually aligned with the rest of the market, which is unanimously at -11.5 as of this writing.

There is slightly more variance with regards to the total, which is as low as 159.5 at BetMGM (juiced -115 to the Over) and as high as 160.5 at FanDuel and DraftKings. More than two-thirds of the early wagers support the Over, making the Under a contrarian play.

📈 Kentucky vs. Florida betting trends

📺 How to watch Kentucky vs. Florida: SEC Tournament Semifinal

• Date: Friday, March 13
• Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tenn.)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN+